Wolverhampton 11/4/08

[fintron]

6.50 - Nawamees looks the best horse in the race but the price (4/6) is too short for me to get involved as a win single outright. It has won its last three claimers when raced over 12f, including two over CD. Also runs off a fair mark. Brastar Jelois (back down to winning mark from over CD) and Looks the Business (down to fair mark too and in the places of late) look to be the best hopes of filling the second place. The SF of N-BJ is currently 5.32 with Bet 365 whilst N-LtB is 4.88. I've got 1 pt on both. 8.20 - Straight Face (6/4) - goes well over 12f and has won a hat-trick of sellers over this trip. Runs off same winning mark as LTO at Kempton but goes equally well here too. The 8.50 looks a competive affair and I marginally prefer Moonlight Man to the fav, Royal Amnesty. Moonlight Man is up only a lb from its last run when a close 2nd here over the distance, but has previous winning form over 9 f too. Royal Amnesty could go well too and has won two handicaps over CD, but is now rated at 73 and the last of those wins came off 63. I'm going for 1 pt SF's on the two and hope Spencer will not spoil the party! MM-RA is 8.97 with Bet 365 and RA-MM is 7.72. 9.20 - Seductive Witch (12/1) - hard to make a convincing case for any of these. Seductive Witch is a CD winner though and has won handicaps before. Races off 61 here and came 2nd and was then a 1.62 length 4th off this mark on last two runs. Goes well for jockey with form reading 1122. Rich James has gone close off this mark of late over distance, including at this course and I'm backing him too. 90 % stake Seductive Witch (12/1) 10 % stake Rich James (14/1)

[billy the punter]

Re: Wolverhampton 11/4/08 8.50 I backed Gold Prospect as a saver in the Rosebery but I think he needed the run. I backed him on his two A/W starts last year and he ran well to finish 2nd (should've won) and 1st. He has disappointed four times on the turf and I think he may prefer the dirt. The race he finished 2nd in above was his handicap debut, he would've won that day with a better ride. He was off 77 that day and being as he was unlucky AND won since, you could say he is pretty well in here off just 79. His drop in the handicap is due to his poor turf runs, if I'm right about him prefering the dirt then he could be a snip. Jamie Spencer has a 35% S/R for the yard on the A/W. Only negative is the trip, he wants further ideally and there is unlikely to be much pace on. I'm hoping he has the class to overcome this. Golden Prospect 100% of stake 3 betfair 9.20 Kicking myself here because when I cast my eye over the card last night, I thought that Walter Swinburn's top weight Charmel's Lad was fairly well handicapped. When I've had my indepth look some time later I've found out that it has been heavily backed all day! :@ Missed the boat with the price but will still back him. He ran in some fair maidens last year and he wasn't beaten far in any of them. He ran ok on his debut and was 8/1 on his 2nd start. He finished 12/13 beaten 9l weakening rapidly over 7f. His next run was in a Leicester maiden and he went off 250/1. 250/1?!?! 8s to 250s in one race? And it was only a Leicester maiden after all. He ran ok, beaten 8l into 6th again weaking quickly over 7f. 250/1 was a ridiculous price, I can only assume the vibes were terrible for him that day, maybe he was out for his handicap mark, or perhaps it was expected he'd find the 7f too far? Sumising I know, but you have look for the clues don't you? Today's trip is 5f, his style and the fact he is out of Compton Place tells me he should prefer the drop. It isn't a great race, the consisten maiden Nice Wee Girl is joint top weight and if this has been plotted up he should have no problem. Nice Wee Girl is solid, she will cope with the trip I think and if the jolly fails then her solid form will come into play. She goes up 2lb after this race. Admirals Way will appreciate the return to a faster surface. He disappointed LTO at Southwell, although he finished 4th and the race has worked out well so far. He ran his best race on the fast dirt and I think he will win a dirt sprint handicap at Kempton/Wolverhampton/Lingfield this year. Will have combos as I have combo units to play with after this afteroon! Charmel's Lad 65% of stake 11/4 coral Nice Wee Girl 20% of stake 7 betfair Admirals Way 15% of stake 10.5 betfair