It's a Knockout!!! Bank Doubled

[turnlux]

Here is the other GH i was talking about that i was going to post up. The System This GH will only work on knockout competitions where a draw is impossible. I will stick rigidly to the staking plan laid out beneath and never bet more than once when a winner occurs on 1 tournament. I will only ever choose one target per tournament and choose a staking point suitable to my bank. The Procedure At the start of the chosen tournament i will look on betfairs outright odds market and select the fifth named in the betting forecast to win the tournament. This player/Team will become my "target" In the first round of the tournament i will find the target's match and lay him/her/team to lose. The stake will depend on the odds but i will stake to win a clear £10 profit from every tournament:hope If the target loses in the first round i have won my £10 profit for the tournament and then move on to the next one. I will not bet again in that tournament. If our target wins, i make a note of how much money i lost and look to recoup in the 2nd round by doing the same again plus recovering stakes from the previous round whilst still attempting to win my £10 clear profit. Final Points Why 5th favourite?? Reason being that this is usually a player best described as being fairly talented and well respected in their sport but highly unlikely to win the competition outright, whilst also having reasonable odds meaning outlay is kept to a minimum. This is by no means foolproof and some thing i may tinker with at some stage is placing a insurance bet on that player to win the tournament at the start and maybe getting away with a small profit or loss should they go all the way. But we'll see how it goes on that front. I expect most bets to be on tennis although darts, snooker, pool and any moneyline bets on US sports which knockout a draw can be included. Will try this on Euro 2008 as well. Starting bank will be £100 with all bets placed at betfair. First tournament i'm going to try this on is the WTA Bausch & Lomb Championships with Agnieska Radwanska as our "target" currently available at 16.5 to win outright on betfair. She has a bye in the first roud but will meet the winner of Dulko v Galllovits in the 2nd round. Thats it basically, i will post up all bets,stakes and results as they happen. Any comments, questions or criticisms are welcome but preferebly not too many criticisms.:rollin Back soon with the 2nd round news.

[Hodgey]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Good luck mate. If you're not going to place the cover on the outright to start with then you may as well just lay the 5th favourite in the outright market rather than lay every round? :unsure

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! I can see your point hodgey but if i lay in the outright market the liability would be £155 say where as in the 2nd round match the liability would only be £1.90. Doing this way you have some control over your stakes.

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Right time to get this GH off and running. Our targets first match is today at around 7.30pm i believe. So.... Bet 1 A.Radwanska v G.Dulko Lay Radwanska @ 1.25 with £10.53 (liability = £2.63) If radwanska wins we only lose £2.63 which we try to recoup in the next round if Dulko wins then we win our £10 profit for this tournament and move on to the next one. These 2 have never met before but radwanska has the better current form. :hope Back later with updates.

[Hodgey]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

I can see your point hodgey but if i lay in the outright market the liability would be £155 say where as in the 2nd round match the liability would only be £1.90. Doing this way you have some control over your stakes.

Agreed but the liability will increase every round if she keeps winning. So in theory if she makes it to the final, if the outright market was 'correctly' priced to start with, then your liability on her in the final will be £155 too? :unsure I'll admit here to knowing very little about women's tennis but I done a quick calc. This is based on she must be half decent to be 5th fav so guesstimates to her prices in the following rounds could be: Round 2 1.25 Round 3 1.50 QF 1.75 SF 2.00 Final 2.50 Which would give odds on her winning as 16.40. Which would bring us back round to the original lay of 16.50. I guess things that would affect her individual match prices would be if the other 4 faves were all beaten then in theory she would be shorter as playing 'weaker' players in later rounds. Anyway, I'm really just thinking out loud now! Good luck with it mate - I will watch with interest. :)

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Think you've hit the nail on the head their hodgey:) I would say your guesstimates and calculations are spot on but also as you quite rightly say, there is a wealth of other factors that could ultimately decide whether they go all the way or not. Like weather, form, surface, other players and injuries plus also there is the psychological factors like losing streaks against certain players. We'll see how it goes and i may yet decide to take your advice and lay from the outright or take a slight insurance. Might have to re-name the thread laying the 5th fav from outright:lol Thanks for the input, much appreciated:ok

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

Right time to get this GH off and running. Our targets first match is today at around 7.30pm i believe. So.... Bet 1 A.Radwanska v G.Dulko Lay Radwanska @ 1.25 with £10.53 (liability = £2.63):@ 6-2 1-6 7-6 If radwanska wins we only lose £2.63 which we try to recoup in the next round if Dulko wins then we win our £10 profit for this tournament and move on to the next one. These 2 have never met before but radwanska has the better current form. :hope Back later with updates.

Radwanska scrapped through tonight after swapping the first five service games in the first set, being outplayed in the second and then failing to capitalise on a 2 game head start in the third. Unless she up's her game then i feel confident i'll get my profit from this player. Radwanska now plays Amelie Mauresmo who breezed past her last opponent 7-5 6-1. Be back later with odds and stakes for this match.:ok

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! On to round 3 today and next up it's.... Bet 2 Bausch & Lombs WTA Tennis Championships Agnieszka Radwanska v Amelie Mauresmo Lay Radwanska @ 2.34 with £13.29(Liabiliy = £17.81) If this bet wins we win our £10 profit for the tournament plus recover our £2.63 lost stake from the first bet. If it loses then it's on to the next round with £17.81 to recover.:ok

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

On to round 3 today and next up it's.... Bet 2 Bausch & Lombs WTA Tennis Championships Agnieszka Radwanska v Amelie Mauresmo 6-3 5-7 6-7 Lay Radwanska @ 2.34 with £13.29(Liabiliy = £17.81):nana:nana If this bet wins we win our £10 profit for the tournament plus recover our £2.63 lost stake from the first bet. If it loses then it's on to the next round with £17.81 to recover.:ok

Off and running, with my first tournament target elimnated after the 3rd round and 2nd bet plus all lost stakes recovered. Start Bank: £100 Current Bank: £110 P/L: £10 Will look around for the next tournament which could be the 2 or 3 tennis tournaments to start next week if nothing comes up for the weekend.:ok

[Hooloovoo]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Well done! :ok

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

Well done! :ok

Cheers HooLooVoo. Had a quick look round but can't see anyhing now till sunday night/Monday morning with the tennis, so will be back then when the draws are made and some money has been placed;)

[Hodgey]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Well done mate. Nice to get off to a winner. :clap

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

Well done mate. Nice to get off to a winner. :clap

Cheers hodgey:ok I think there could be between 8 to 14 tournaments a month with tennis,darts, snooker etc. So only time will tell if there is any real potential in this. So we'll have to see how it goes.;)

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Time to put this GH to a real test. There will be an opportunity to win £60 :loon this week as there is 5 tennis tournaments starting tomorrow and the world snooker championships starting on saturday. Tournament 1: ATP Comunidad Valenciana Target: Igor Andreev First Match: Andreev v Evgeny Korolev (Mon 14th 11am) Bet: Lay Andreev @ 1.5 Stake: £10.53 (Liability £5.27) Tournament 2: ATP Estoril Open Target: Jarkko Nieminen First Match: Nieminen v Denis Gremelmayr (Mon 14th 11am) Bet: Lay Nieminen @ 1.81 Stake: £10.53 (Liability £8.53) Tournament 3: WTA Estoril Open Will update this tomorrow morning as there is no liquidity in the market, so no decision on 5th favourite or match placement. Tournament 4: WTA Family Circle Cup As with above will update this tomorrow as again no liquidity yet. Tournament 5: ATP US Clay Court Championships Target: Sam Querrey First Match: Querrey v Nicolas Massu (Mon 14th 5pm) Bet: Lay Querrey @ 1.82 Stake: £10.53 (Liability £8.63) H2h stats show that none of tomorrow's opponents have met before so no early signs there. Wil just have to wait and see how it goes. Will wait till later on in the week to post snooker targets etc, May allow the market to settle down a bit. Back in the morning to update those WTA events and then hopefully an update before i take my little boy to the wrestling at the O2 for the evening.:ok

[staffy]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Nice start and good luck this week.

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

Nice start and good luck this week.

Cheers Staffy:ok Will need a big slice of luck from the betting gods to pull all 6 tournaments in, but even maybe 4 would hopefully still leave me in a healthy position. If i get time then at some stage i will perhaps try and get hold of some stats to see how past performances of 5th fav's have stood over a tennis season. Might give me a bit more indication if i do need to consider the insurance bet of backing the outright from the start.

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! I still can't get nothing for the WTA Estoril Open:( and so have decided to rule it out for good if i can't get anything later and it means i've missed the 5th seeds first match. But will confirm later. Good news on the family circle cup though..... Tournament 4: WTA Family Circle Cup Target: Dominika Cibulkova First Match: Cibulkova v Anastasia Rodionova (Tues 15th 4pm) Bet: Lay Cibulkova @ 1.8 Stake: £10.53 (Liability £8.42):hope Be back later with some updates. (winning ones hopefully!!!);)

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

I still can't get nothing for the WTA Estoril Open:( and so have decided to rule it out for good if i can't get anything later and it means i've missed the 5th seeds first match. But will confirm later. Good news on the family circle cup though. Be back later with some updates. (winning ones hopefully!!!);)

This turned out to be the case with the WTA Estoril Open, so i've decided to leave it well alone. Doesn't seem to be a lot of interest in outright winners of tournaments for womens tennis.:\ Also there has been some changes to the schedule of matches and the majority of them take place today with the querrey v massu game not till tomorrow. So as always will be back with some more results later.:ok

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

Tournament 1: ATP Comunidad Valenciana Target: Igor Andreev First Match: Andreev v Evgeny Korolev (Mon 14th 11am) Bet: Lay Andreev @ 1.5:nana:nana4-6 6-4 6-7 Stake: £10.53 (Liability £5.27) Tournament 2: ATP Estoril Open Target: Jarkko Nieminen First Match: Nieminen v Denis Gremelmayr (Mon 14th 11am) Bet: Lay Nieminen @ 1.81:nana:nana 6-3 1-6 2-6 Stake: £10.53 (Liability £8.53)

Good start to the new week with 2/4 so far on the tennis. So already £20 up. Should know the destiny of the cibulkova result tonight as well with the querrey match kicking off tomorrow.

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

I still can't get nothing for the WTA Estoril Open:( and so have decided to rule it out for good if i can't get anything later and it means i've missed the 5th seeds first match. But will confirm later. Good news on the family circle cup though..... Tournament 4: WTA Family Circle Cup Target: Dominika Cibulkova First Match: Cibulkova v Anastasia Rodionova (Tues 15th 4pm) Bet: Lay Cibulkova @ 1.8:nana:nana 4-6 0-1 Cibulkova retires. Stake: £10.53 (Liability £8.42):hope Be back later with some updates. (winning ones hopefully!!!);)

Very nice of cibulkova to retire after the first set had played which meant the bet was a winner. Fantastic start today all three first round targets were winners today, Hopefully querrey will oblige tomorrow for a clean sweep on the tennis. 3/4 £30 profit:loon Start Bank: £100 Current Bank: £140 P/L: £40 1 Target still open.

[aldric]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Good results :clap Were Cibulkova and Nieminen really 5th Favourites? Seems strange!

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

Good results :clap Were Cibulkova and Nieminen really 5th Favourites? Seems strange!

:$ I've just realised i missed something in the opening post which would of affected how you view nieminen as a fifth fav, although this wouldn't of affected the Cibulkova choice who was an outright 5th fav when i made my target pick. So will post it now to avoid any further confusion. If in the outright market there are more than 1 player rated as 5th favourite, the bottomed named player of this list will be the selected target. In essence you could argue that this doesn't qualify as an exact 5th fav if there is more than 1 player, but they all fall in to the range of odds directly below the top 4. So i usually go for the last named as the target. Another point i will make is that these picks are made on a late sunday evening if i'm pressed for time putting the bets on or early monday morning if i have a bit more time. But all are genuine 5th fav's at the time of writing. :ok Cheersfor the query aldric.

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Just had a look on betfair following aldric's query over how valid the 5th placed targets are and i noticed that the US Clay Court Championships markets do through up some strange contradictions.:\ For eg, my target is Sam Querrey for this tournament and in the outright market he is trading at 11.5 to win while his opponent tomorrow is trading at 32 to win, yet the match odds have querrey as underdog at 2.06 and massu at 1.9 and at 11.5 querrey is the outright 5th fav!!:unsure Someone once said betting is all about opinions. Im beginning to think they are right!:lol

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Querrey v Massu has gone to a third set after querrey lead 1-0. Going to go all the way this one. Nip and tuck. Am i going to get the clean sweep or not???

[aldric]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

Just had a look on betfair following aldric's query over how valid the 5th placed targets are and i noticed that the US Clay Court Championships markets do through up some strange contradictions.:\ For eg, my target is Sam Querrey for this tournament and in the outright market he is trading at 11.5 to win while his opponent tomorrow is trading at 32 to win, yet the match odds have querrey as underdog at 2.06 and massu at 1.9 and at 11.5 querrey is the outright 5th fav!!:unsure Someone once said betting is all about opinions. Im beginning to think they are right!:lol

That is pretty bizarre! Although, I guess it is possible that for example Massu might have good h2h results against Querry, however over all chances of winning the tournament are much less because of the few career titles he has won.... :unsure Anyway, good luck with tonights lay!

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! I did consider that myself aldric, and always check the h2h stats before the matches take place to get maybe an inkling which way it may go and querrey against massu as never happened before. So not even this can explain the contradiction in odds. It maybe as you say something to do with YTD records and overall prize money won which they look at. Who knows!!:ok As i type it's still nip and tuck in that match and even at this late stage could go either way.

[aldric]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! Massu finishes it off quickly... nice one :ok

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

Tournament 5: ATP US Clay Court Championships Target: Sam Querrey First Match: Querrey v Nicolas Massu (Mon 14th 5pm)7-5 4-6 4-6 Bet: Lay Querrey @ 1.82:nana:nana Stake: £10.53 (Liability £8.63)

That last one was too close to call but massu crossed the finishing line to give me a clean sweep of 5th fav's in the outright market to go out in the first round this week.:loon Overall Stats stand;- Start Bank: £100 Current Bank: £150 P/L: £50 With th tennis all finished for this week now i will be turning my attentions to the World Snooker Championships that start on Saturday. Early indications look to show that my target in this tournament will be Ding Junhui, who will open up his campaign against Marco Fu. Will leave the final selection till friday night as at the moment John Higgins is only half a tick behind in the outright market and any change in price could leave me with a false 5th fav in the outright market. So be back later with final selections, odds and stake for first round match.:ok

[ScottyXS]

Re: It's a Knockout!!! This is going really well so far turnlux, glad to see a nice tasty profit already. Will be interesting to see if such a simple system can actually prove profitable on the long run :hope

[turnlux]

Re: It's a Knockout!!!

This is going really well so far turnlux, glad to see a nice tasty profit already. Will be interesting to see if such a simple system can actually prove profitable on the long run :hope

Cheers Scotty:clap I plan on giving this a good run, so like you say i can see if this will be profitable long term. I'm hoping it's simplicity will be the key. It will also be interesting to see how other sports stand up, like the snooker this weekend or whether it could be just a system used to profit on tennis.