Kempton 07/04/08

[billy the punter]

2.10 This is a typical trappy dirt sprint handicap but I thought the RP betting forcast was all wrong. There seemed some better handicapped animals among the bigger priced horses. However it wasn't just me to notice this and the actual market (current betfair) is very different to that estimated in the Racing Post. They are still going close to 4/1 the field and it may still be a race worth looking at. I thought the better handicapped runners were Spoof Master, Azygous and Overstayed. Spoof Master hasn't won for two years but hasn't really been given any chance by the handicapper in that time. He started going close this season when his rating dropped to 70. He has finished 2nd three times from 4 runs since then, including a decent 2nd to Saviles Deilight despite giving away 12lb and a defeat of rival Lord Of The Reigns. Spoof Master is 2lb better off too for beating Lord Of The Reigns. Although he acts here (great run a year ago in a class2 off 19lb higher) those two runs were at Southwell and there is worry he would be suited to a slower surface. Azygous hadn't shown anything on his two previous seasonal debuts but he ran a fair race LTO, his debut this year. He is another that hasn't won for a while, and obviously has fallen a long way in the weights. He has show recent form though like I say so surely it is a matter of time before he makes his presence felt off this mark. He is slung in on his early season form of last season. Alan Munro knows him well and his form reads 1,1,3,7(50/1),3,3,1,2 when partnered by him. Overstayed was a decent 2yo, bordering on listed class, he finised 5th in the Norfolk Stakes at the Royal Meeting and as a result he was given no chance to win a race at three. He'd changed stables once or twice but he started coming back into form recently. He has never been out the frame here and could be value. This is a risky tactic, backing horses that haven't won for a while versus a few recent winners but I'm of the opinion that sprinters always come back to form at some point and if you find one about to strike form they can be real money spinners. Azygous 50% of stake 5.7 betfair Spoof Master 30% of stake Overstayed 20% of stake 12.5 betfair 2.40 Ryan Moore rode a winner for Geoff Wragg in a maiden last week and the booking of him to ride St Jean Cap Ferrat takes the eye. He ran in some hot maidens at two and did well to finish 4th to Ibn Khaldun on his 2nd start. I fully expect him to improved massively at three based on some findings when researching his sire. His is one of Domedriver's first crop and most of them were not quick enough to win at two, only 3 winners produced from 77 runs (59 unplaced!) and 18 unplaced from 21 runs at 5/6f. The few that have been upped to 10f+ however have faired well. None of the 6 that have tried have been out of the first four in their races. A guess at this stage, but it looks at though his progeny will improve for age and distance. He already has the best form on offer and should be backed with improvement expected. Cap St Jean Ferrat 100% of stake 3.40 I think the RPF of Bridge Of Fermoy 10/11 and Days Of Pleasure 5/2 is a little out, the current betfair prices are similar but I believe the two should be a little more evenly priced. Days Of Pleasure is no world beater but hasn't ran a bad race in five starts on the A/W this season. His LTO maiden win had fair yardstick Precipice (in receipt 12lb) back in 3rd and there may not be the 7lb between them the handicapper thinks there is. There maybe improvement in him too, now he has his head in front. Days Of Pleasure 100% of stake 4.10 Four-time A/W winner Salut Saint Cloud is another horse that has been given a real chance by the handicapper today. He would pick these up and carry them not long ago and despite running well LTO he is on close to a career low mark. His last win come over C&D last March were he gagged up off an 11lb higher mark and his only poor runs since have been over a much shorter trip. 54 days off but if right he must go close against a pretty average lot. Salut Saint Cloud 100% of stake

[fintron]

Re: Kempton 07/04/08 Glad to see some AW action back today after jumps meetings only yesterday. This looks a decent enough card for me and quite a few I have a good feeling about. 2.10 - Hollow Jo - its best performances have come over 5f and won and placed over this trip on last two visits here. Running off 67 again today and was only beaten by a length of the same mark LTO. 3/1. 2.40 - St Jean Cap Ferrat - was beaten by one of Peter Chapple-Hyam's well backed horses LTO at Pontefract but its run today suggested that this trip is suitable. Able jockey in Ryan Moore rides today and should go close. 11/10. 3.40 - Bridge of Fermoy - I've backed this one three times in recent months and he has obliged every time. Course and distance winner that gets on superbly well with George Baker and runs off 73 again today after winning at Lingfield LTO. No concern regarding the trip though as it has repeatedly proven itself over a mile. 10/11 4.10 - Salut Saint Cloud - course and distance winner who was a 1.5 length second over this trip LTO at Lingfield. Runs off 50 today but has won off marks in the 60's previously in career. 5/2 4.40 - My Shadow - won off this mark to shed maiden tag at Lingfield LTO under this jockey. Won by 2.75 lengths and fancied to go well again, despite a penalty, against a field containing few other serious options. 9/4 :hope