WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 This is a system I was told by one of my punters at work. Ive been half tracking it and it definatly throws up a few winners so I thought Id start to track it here. Its simple and straight foward. Handicaps races only. Starting from the bottom , find the lowest weighted horse that won last time out. This is the selection. If no horse won lto then no selection. Today(not including Kempton) would have created 14 bets with the following results. 6 winners @ 10/1, 7/1, 11/1, 9/2, 8/1 and 5/1. 2 places @ 28/1 and 7/1. 7/1 winner was Comply or Die. If you went with the 2nd lowest weighted LTO winner you'd have King Johns Castle and have found the forecast! Im going to record two banks. One with 1pt win singles and one with 0.5pt e/w singles. Any previous encounters with this system, ways of improvement and any other input, more than welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 5, 2008 Author Share Posted April 5, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Sun 6th April 2.30 Hex - Reckless Venture RPF:EVS 3.00 Hex - Shulmin RPF:5/1 3.30 Hex - Topaz Lady RPF:2/1 3.50 MR - Silver Seeker RPF:11/2 4.20 MR - Cash On Friday RPF:3/1 2.10 Sou - Cleverality RPF:5/2 2.40 Sou - Red Scally RPF:9/1 4.40 Sou - Wizards Dust RPF:11/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman 2005 Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners sounds great :hope:hope. is there anyway of backtesting it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman 2005 Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners kempton 7.50 - tiegs (stone last) 8.50 - gallic charm (my best bet of the day ) nowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Very interesting, good luck with it. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Sun 6th April 2.30 Hex - Reckless Venture - ABANDONED 3.00 Hex - Shulmin - ABANDONED 3.30 Hex - Topaz Lady - ABANDONED 3.50 MR - Silver Seeker - UP 4.20 MR - Cash On Friday - UP 2.10 Sou - Cleverality - FELL 2.40 Sou - Red Scally - NR 4.40 Sou - Wizards Dust - 3rd 11/2 Another system hit by the PL curse on its debut. Only the one place today. Non-runners wont be counted in stats for the banks. Win Bank Bets:4 Wins:0 Strikerate: Staked:4pts Returns:0pts P/L:-4pts Yield:-100% EW Bank Bets:4 Places:1 Strikerate:25% Staked:4pts Returns:1.19pts Profit:-2.81pts Yield:-70.25% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Sounds interesting though mate Will keep an eye on it all the best with it :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Monday 7th April 4.00 Kel - Lambrini Legend 4.30 Kel - Primus Inter Pares 5.00 Kel - Stravaigin 3.10 Kem - Warming Up 4.10 Kem - Fade To Grey 4.40 Kem - My Shadow 5.10 Kem - Straight Face 3.20 Plu - Joli Classical 4.20 Plu - Pacco 4.50 Plu - Amoreigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 8, 2008 Author Share Posted April 8, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Monday 7th April 4.00 Kel - Lambrini Legend - UP 4.30 Kel - Primus Inter Pares - UP 5.00 Kel - Stravaigin - NR 3.10 Kem - Warming Up - UP 4.10 Kem - Fade To Grey - UP 4.40 Kem - My Shadow - 1st 13/8 5.10 Kem - Straight Face - 1st 15/8 3.20 Plu - Joli Classical - 3rd 4/1 4.20 Plu - Pacco - 1st 7/2 4.50 Plu - Amoreigh - 3rd 9/4 Better but still not a great day. Win Bank Bets:13 Wins:3 Strikerate:23.08% Staked:13pts Returns:10.01pts P/L:-2.99pts Yield:-23.00% EW Bank Bets:13 Places:6 Strikerate:46.15% Staked:13pts Returns:10.02pts Profit:-2.98pts Yield:-22.92% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pot rice Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Looks like a nice tidy system you have here. A small profit on the day yesterday so hopefully onwards and upwards. I'll certainly be watching on with interest. Best of luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 8, 2008 Author Share Posted April 8, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Tuesday 8th April 2.30 Sou - Bahamarama 3.00 Sou - Montemayorprincess 4.00 Sou - Playtotheaudience 4.30 Sou - Tom's Laughter 5.00 Sou - Royal Audition 3.10 Lin - Oat Cuisine 3.40 Lin - Duke Of Milan 4.40 Lin - Kings Ransom 3.50 Sed - Shulmin 4.20 Sed - Izzykeen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tezmac Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Sounds interesting,sometimes the simplest ones are the best. Best of the luck. Cheers Terry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 8, 2008 Author Share Posted April 8, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Tuesday 8th April 2.30 Sou - Bahamarama - UP 3.00 Sou - Montemayorprincess - UP 4.00 Sou - Playtotheaudience - UP 4.30 Sou - Tom's Laughter - UP 5.00 Sou - Royal Audition - UP 3.10 Lin - Oat Cuisine - UP 3.40 Lin - Duke Of Milan - 3rd 9/4 4.40 Lin - Kings Ransom - UP 3.50 Sed - Shulmin - 1st 13/2 4.20 Sed - Izzykeen - UP Another quiet day. Win Bank Bets:23 Wins:4 Strikerate:17.39% Staked:23pts Returns:17.51pts P/L:-5.49pts Yield:-23.87% EW Bank Bets:23 Places:8 Strikerate:34.78% Staked:23pts Returns:15.75pts Profit:-7.25pts Yield:-31.52% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 8, 2008 Author Share Posted April 8, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Wednesday 9th April 3.40 Bat - Classic Blue 4.10 Bat - King's Fable 2.30 Tow - Monash Lad 3.00 Tow - The Walnut Tree 3.30 Tow - Wotchalike 7.20 Kem - Lowry's Art 8.20 Kem - Garafena Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 10, 2008 Author Share Posted April 10, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Wednesday 9th April 3.40 Bat - Classic Blue - NR 4.10 Bat - King's Fable - NR 2.30 Tow - Monash Lad - UP 3.00 Tow - The Walnut Tree - UP 3.30 Tow - Wotchalike - 2nd 11/4 7.20 Kem - Lowry's Art - UP 8.20 Kem - Garafena - UPThis was producing winners - promise!:cry Win Bank Bets:28 Wins:4 Strikerate:14.29% Staked:28pts Returns:17.51pts P/L:-10.49pts Yield:-37.46% EW Bank Bets:28 Places:9 Strikerate:32.14% Staked:28pts Returns:16.59pts Profit:-11.41pts Yield:-40.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 10, 2008 Author Share Posted April 10, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners I havnt really got time to use them today but there's two factors Im going to start tracking that I hope may help. As the system is based on horses that won being underestimated by the handicapper I think this might help. 1) Checking to see if the horse has changed grade. They might still be lower in the weights as theyve gone up a grade. 2) Position in the field (weight-wise). They may be the lowest weight bearing LTO winner but this doesnt help if they're still top weight by a stone. Im thinking the SR may improve when they're still reletivly lightly weighted compared to the rest of todays field. After today I will still include all selections but will note the above and see if it makes any difference. Thursday 10th April 2.15 Car - Royal Mackintosh 4.30 Car - Stravaigan 3.15 Fol - Golden Desert 4.25 Fol - Etoile D'Or 5.00 Fol - Street Life 4.40 Fon - Cleymor House 3.40 Tow - Read All About It 4.15 Tow - Boris The Blade 6.50 Kem -Siena Star 7.50 Kem - Your Pleasure 9.20 Kem - Miss Marauder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman 2005 Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners added my own filters to your picks. and so far it's 2/2, todays pick 2.15 Car - Royal Mackintosh. 4/1 :beer:beer:beer:beer:beer. will let you know what my filters are after, a months testing. if its profitable, dont mind sharing it. to rob the bookies satchels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marlin Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Good luck with this. It looks an interesting system and it is doesn’t take long to find any qualifiers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 11, 2008 Author Share Posted April 11, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Thursday 10th April 2.15 Car - Royal Mackintosh - 1st 4/1 4.30 Car - Stravaigan - 2nd 9/1 3.15 Fol - Golden Desert - UP 4.25 Fol - Etoile D'Or - UP 5.00 Fol - Street Life - 2nd 3/1 4.40 Fon - Cleymor House - UP 3.40 Tow - Read All About It - UP 4.15 Tow - Boris The Blade - UP 6.50 Kem -Siena Star - 2nd 11/2 7.50 Kem - Your Pleasure - UP 9.20 Kem - Miss Marauder - 1st 8/1 Win Bank Bets:39 Wins:6 Strikerate:15.38% Staked:39pts Returns:31.51pts P/L:-7.49pts Yield:-19.21% EW Bank Bets:39 Places:14 Strikerate:35.90% Staked:39pts Returns:29.47pts Profit:-9.53pts Yield:-24.44% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 11, 2008 Author Share Posted April 11, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Another possible filter is that selections must be running from within the handicap. This is as if they arent they are carrying more weight than the handicapper's rating dictates and therefore negates any underrating of the horse. For now I will go without this but when it occurs will post the alternative also, in brackets. At the moment only the original selection will count towards the results. Friday 11th April 3.30 Asc - Stagehand 15/16 +1 4.05 Asc - Ice Bucket 11/17 E 4.40 Asc - Native Coral 12/13 +1 5.15 Asc - Goodnight Tom 9/9 +2 (Mossville 4/9 E) 2.10 Don - Bridgewater Boys 1/15 E 2.40 Don - Khazina 14/16 +1 3.50 Don - Puy D'Arnac 9/11 E 4.25 Don - Tudor Prince 17/18 +2 (Pusey Street Lady 3/18 -1) 2.30 Mus - Grizebeck 1/1 +1 5.25 Mus - Rebel Duke 1/1 E 8.20 Wol - Straight Face 7/12 E 8.50 Wol - Royal Amnesty 4/5 +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 11, 2008 Author Share Posted April 11, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Friday 11th April 3.30 Asc - Stagehand 15/16 +1 - UP 4.05 Asc - Ice Bucket 11/17 E - NR 4.40 Asc - Native Coral 12/13 +1 - UP 5.15 Asc - Goodnight Tom 9/9 +2 - UP (Mossville 4/9 E) - UP 2.10 Don - Bridgewater Boys 1/15 E - UP 2.40 Don - Khazina 14/16 +1 - UP 3.50 Don - Puy D'Arnac 9/11 E - 1st 3/1 4.25 Don - Tudor Prince 17/18 +2 - UP (Pusey Street Lady 3/18 -1) - UP 2.30 Mus - Grizebeck 1/1 +1 - 1st 6/4 5.25 Mus - Rebel Duke 1/1 E - 1st 3/1 8.20 Wol - Straight Face 7/12 E - 2nd 9/4 8.50 Wol - Royal Amnesty 4/5 +1 - UP Win Bank Bets:50 Wins:9 Strikerate:18% Staked:50pts Returns:42.01pts P/L:-7.99pts Yield:-15.98% EW Bank Bets:50 Places:18 Strikerate:36% Staked:50pts Returns:37.70pts Profit:-12.30pts Yield:-24.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 11, 2008 Author Share Posted April 11, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners Saturday 12th April Don 3.05 - Came Back 8/14 +2 Don 4.10 - King's Bastion 17/20 +1 Don 5.15 - Tinnarinka 9/9 +1 Kem 3.55 - Monkey Glas 5/10 E Kem 4.30 - Dudley Docker 9/16 E Kem 5.05 - Miss Mujanna 8/10 +1 Kem 5.35 - Coda Agency 8/8 +1 (No alternative) New 2.25 - Chance Du Roy 18/18 +2 New 3.00 - Major Euro 9/9 +1 (No alternative) New 4.00 - Joyrider 3/7 +1 Utt 4.20 - Kings Rock 11/12 +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexpro7 Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 Re: Handicap LTO winners I have been following this thread as i love the simpicity of it. I have also followed the irish racing using it and it threw up a couple of nice winners yesterday. Drumnavaddy Lough 5.0 and Asian Royale 5.5:clap These were the only 2 qualifiers so a nice profit. A couple of filters i have put in is that it must be running in same class and also up no more than 7lbs. Will see how it goes. Thanks for the thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.