Lingfield 02/04/08

[billy the punter]

3.00 I've been lucky enough to have an 80% S/R (4/5) when playing in older horse A/W claimers/sellers this season and it would be nice to continue that run here. Official marks can be a useful guide in these races, other times they can be expensively misleading. The tricky part is trying to ascertain if currents marks are justified. The well-weighted runners here are the Ron Harris pair Night Prospector and Marko Jadeo. Marko Jadeo could run into traffic problems being a hold up horse from the one box and Night Prospector his held by Punching - others definitley look more value. I had a saver on Punching when he finished 2nd to Best One and he ran a cracker, he was all wrong at the weights that day (as he is here) but he was only beaten by a horse that was slung in. Like I said last week, Punching is a horse I thought would do well when dropped to this level and I'm even more so after his last run. He had two of today's rivals behind him then (Night Prospector and Monashee Prince) and there is no reason why they should turn the tables. I think he has the ability to be mid 60s horse no question and therefore should make his presence at this level before long. I will be looking for a saver or two though. Compulsion has some cracking pieces of form but looks inconsistent, his last run was woeful. Like I say, some pieces of form are useful, his 3rd in a maiden at Kempton in October reads well. The winner won twice and is rated 74 now, the 2nd won NTO, the 4th has won three times (the last off 65), however on his very next run the 4th managed a 14l turnaround in form. An indication of how inconsistent and disappointing Compulsion can be. Pat Eddery was a great jockey, the best I have seen, but he couldn't train his hair to go back and it takes a lot for me to back one of his. Compulsion wouldn't be a shock winner but is probably best watched. Call Off The Search has bits and pieces of form that makes him look overpriced but his win record of 1/36 is off-putting. I'm opting for Scarlett Heart for my saver. Her record here is ok, one win and two places from four starts. She is 1/1 in the grade and is another who I feel is slightly better than your average plater. She ran well LTO when I little unlucky in running, subsequent winners Music Box Express and High N' Dry finished around her. The stable is going well too. Majestical is overpriced and his runs on the quicker dirt tracks are reasonably consistent. Will probably run ok without winning though. I was hoping Punching would be in a less competitive seller next time he ran but I'm still willing to follow him in the grade for the time being. Punching 70% of stake Scarlett Heart 30% of stake 3.30 I thought Bassinet ran a cracker on her last start, she has improved with every run since coming over from France and she could get her head in front here over this new trip of 1m4f. There is bundles of stamina in the dam side and she ran as if this distance would suit on her past two starts. I don't see anything in the race with any toe and her finishing kick could be too much for her rivals. Despite being winless before she come here, connections paid nearly 50 grand for her, they obviously thought she was value and looks sure to win soon. My Mentor has been a little in and out this year and I'm not sure how genuine he is. His best recent form has been at Southwell, although he did win here last season. I'll save on him as he is unbeaten at this trip (1/1) and that may be the key to him. Bassinet 50% of stake My Mentor 50% of stake No prices yet, the markets haven't really formed.

[fintron]

Re: Lingfield 02/04/08 3.00 - War of the Roses (9/4) - no concerns over trip and has proven course and distance form. Runs off 75 today after coming a 1 length second to Wicked Daze off 74 last time out. Has a good record when partnered with JP Guillambert at Lingfield which reads 1122. 4.00 - Dawson Creek (5/2) - has been racing over shorter trips of late and has come second on each of last four runs (beaten nk, hd, 0.5l and 2.5) over 7-8f. During those runs it was running off a mark between 56 and 60, and as it runs off 60 today, fancied to do well under Neil Callan. Has won over 10f before so no concerns regarding trip either. 4.30 - Dvinsky (10/3) - Ran off this mark of 70 at Kempton LTO and was only beaten by a length over this trip. Although came fourth on last visit here (also over the 7f raced today) it was only beaten by 1.12 lengths.