Crouch Potato Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Round 4 April 4 - 7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters [FRI] Storm vs. Broncos [FRI] Dragons vs. Sharks [sAT] Titans vs. Raiders [sAT] Cowboys vs. Eels [sAT] Warriors vs. Knights [sUN] Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs [sUN] Wests Tigers vs. Panthers [MON] Friday From the looks of things Bulldogs will be slight dogs (1.8 Roosters, 1.95 Dogs with the books?) whilst Storm I think will open up at about 1.65-1.70 with the Broncs at 2.2 - wont last though as I think the money would come in for Brisbane). Bulldogs ML shapes up as a play but unconvinced about the Broncos game, though it will be one to watch for unders - I expect a game like Roosters v Storm - BTW last 2 Broncos @ Olympic has been like 16-4 and 10-4 scorelines in Storm favour) Saturday Sharks lost Gallen for 3wks (suspension), Ross still suspended and of course Williams out for the season. Thompson back but match fitness would be a concern surely? Game is at OKI where Dragons are strong (Dragons btw announced today that they have signed Wayne Bennett to coach next year - will be interesting to see how that affects Brown). Woolford's been axed but Ben Ellis looks a pretty good player. Depending on odds I think the Dragons are a good play here - I am expecting them to be longer than what I first thought they would be. Titans will be massive favourites over the Raiders and rightly so but I don't expect much to be on offer for punters - will investigate the lines set though. As for Cowboys v Eels it's probably going to be pretty even in the betting (maybe 1.91 the pair, or Eels the slightest of favourites?). Either way the Cowboys looking like a play for me. Will discuss the other games a bit later. Could well be off with the odds but just looking at the early Betfair market and having a bit of guess at what the bookies might come out with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 2, 2008 Author Share Posted April 2, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Not too far off with the Eels/Broncos games and the Dragons are pretty much where I thought they'd be. Quite surprised about the Bulldogs odds but wont complain in the slightest. Will be interesting to see if the Cowboys will remain outsiders by Saturday night. Will post a couple of early bets soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 2, 2008 Author Share Posted April 2, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Bulldogs opening up at 2.65 on Centrebet and now out to 2.70. The rest 2.35-2.45 although they've been matched above 3s on Betfair (though I'm inclined to think that if I get greedy and try to get same I'll miss the 2.70s). Sidenote: Bulldogs are a System A selection this week Massive price on Brisbane at 2.60. Wasn't really looking to bet on this game as there isn't any system selections but gee that's massive isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 2, 2008 Author Share Posted April 2, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Haha bugger missed the 2.70 (moved into 2.50 just as I was about to execute). 2.5 still being better than the rest I'll take it anyway. Also can't resist the 2.60 on offer for the Broncos, particularly when most books have gone circa 2.30. Friday Bets Roosters v Bulldogs Bulldogs to win @ 2.50 (Centrebet) [system A Bet] Bulldogs to win 1-12 @ 4.30 (Centrebet) [system A Bet] Storm v Broncos Broncos to win @ 2.60 (Lasseters) All win bets include extra time Margin bets (1-12/13+) exclude extra time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rleague_punter Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Hey Boys, Hope all is well in all camps, some very good points made there Crouch :ok. I'm frothing at the mouth waiting for friday night to come around! And i can tell you hounestly i wouldn't rather be anywhere else in the world come 7.30pm friday night than my favourite couch at my house in front of my television tuned into Channel 9! I cannot remember a match with such hype surronding it since PAUL"THE CHIEF" HARRIGON vs MARK "SPUD" CARROLL, and im referring to the match up of SBW vs BIG W or SONNY BILL WILLIAMS vs WILLIE "was a dog, now a cock" MASON. And then we have the little matter of the MELBOURNE STORM vs BRISBANE BRONCOS. :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana GAME PREVIEW: BULLDOGS vs ROOSTERS I do not think i need to bore you guys with all this blah blah blah there talking in the newspapers. We all no the importance of this match to both teams and what has been said in the media, so im only going to say one more thing about it. All this shit talking always seems to bring the best out of MASON wich doesnt say much for the bloke, i remember last year vs Bunnies when the same sort of thing with Asotasi happend and then Willie had the game of his life. Many people including myself wrote the dogs of pre season with there big name losses, however they have proved me wrong with there good come from behing victory vs Bunnies then a thrashing handed to the Tigers. Meanwhile the roosters have been the number 2 side form wise behind the Broncos, and they should of beaten them in round 2 so it may be fare to assume they are number 1. The biggest question here is wtf has Reni Maitua been left out?, as he is tailor made for games like this! I no he messed up but surely they can't punish the rest of the team by not putting out the best 17 man squad and i think this will cost them. SBW and RYAN cannot do it all by themselves and vs a pumped up MASON/O'MELEY/FITZGIBBON/TOPOU/MYLES there going to be in for a long night. Bulldogs have started slowly in all 3 games so far and if they do that again here it could be game over at half-time. Many people are tipping the dogs this week but i do not think they will win and i realy like the look of the chooks and will be having a big wager on them. MY TIP: ROOSTERS 13+ @ 3.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rleague_punter Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 GAME PREVIEW: STORM vs BRONCOS WILL THE REAL MELBOURNE STORM PLEASE STAND UP? In game 2 on friday night we have the out of sorts STORM vs the very impressive BRONCOS. Melbourne need a win here to get all the critics off there backs, and i think friday night will bring them one. No doubt if you look at the stats here everything points to the broncos but i'm realy not a stats punter, and i think "situation" sometimes is more important. I think any of these melbourne players will give there left legs away to get a win here and i think a desparate storm team with Inglis and maybe Crocker back will get the chocolates. I'm not going into past 3 rounds form because again it all points to the broncos, so i'm backing the storm boys on desperation but i do not think they will win it by more than 12. MY TIP: STORM 1-12 @ 3.00 & A SMALL PUNT ON DRAW AFTER 80MINS @ 24.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Good work in here so far guys. Let's hope game days provide good results :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 2, 2008 Author Share Posted April 2, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Certainly will be a great Friday. The main thing for me regarding the Roosters v Bulldogs clash is that the Roosters in two consecutive weeks have played a mammoth clash against Brisbane and then backed up the next week to win just as big a battle against the Storm. Three weeks in a row of games of the absolute highest intensity - are they up to it, both physically and mentally? I'm not convinced (at least not physically) and if it gets close in the 2nd half I'd fancy the Bulldogs - IMO they will be fresher and they are pretty good in the 2nd half (bar the Eels game). Best of luck this weekend and lets hope for a cracking Friday :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 3, 2008 Author Share Posted April 3, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Hodges and Marsh out for the Broncos. Certainly hurts the chances though at least our forward pack will still have an edge over the Storm's. Still, I'm not too convinced of my position now - 2.60 was value when others were 2.35ish and Hodges and Marsh were playing - now, not so much. Will have to re-evaluate and might consider taking up the Storm 1-12 like yourself Rleague_Punter - it was the bet I favoured until I saw those original odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rleague_punter Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Certainly will be a great Friday. The main thing for me regarding the Roosters v Bulldogs clash is that the Roosters in two consecutive weeks have played a mammoth clash against Brisbane and then backed up the next week to win just as big a battle against the Storm. Three weeks in a row of games of the absolute highest intensity - are they up to it, both physically and mentally? I'm not convinced (at least not physically) and if it gets close in the 2nd half I'd fancy the Bulldogs - IMO they will be fresher and they are pretty good in the 2nd half (bar the Eels game). Best of luck this weekend and lets hope for a cracking Friday :ok Crouch i hope i can get you to change your mind before tomorrow! I'm not trying to have a go crouch but these guys are great athletes and i think so early in the year fatigue is not a factor. I will say this i will bet my PRIDE on this match, this roosters bet @ 1.55 is the bet of the year for me. I no i sound like a 1800-number, i'm only saying this all to save all bulldogs backers! Get on the chooks! And i'm not the one to go around making these statements and you will probably never see me say this again, but boys i hounestly feel this is the bet of the year! Tomorrow nights game is the ONE. (i mean im not stupid i no nuthin is gauranteed in life other than death and taxes and i no i've heard it 100000 times before and the bet of the year game has lost but im not one of those idiots, so i wouldn't be saying this unless i was sure!) PLEASE PUT YOUR FAITH IN ME ONE TIME BOYS AND BACK THE ROOSTERS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Strong Words there RL Punter....Good Luck Mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolcricket Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Bulldogs v Roosters Wow, rleague punter, you sure are convinced about the Roosters, however I don't think I could bring myself to backing them at 1.55. The Bulldogs and the roosters have played at ANZ Stadium 7 times, and the Bulldogs lead the count 6-1. Overall the Bulldogs record is 12-4 against the Roosters. As crouch has said, the roosters have had a tough couple of weeks, and I think that the Bulldogs will once again come out victors in this match, as they have done so often in the past. Bulldogs @ 2.50 Melbourne v Storm Think this game will be a low-scoring one, with Melbourne still attempting to find their offensive feet, although their defence has held up ok so far this season. Hodges is a big loss for Brisbane, and I can see a hard fought low scoring match on the cards. Under 38 points @1.90 (although only for a small stake). Good Luck all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad89 Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 hey Crouch, the dragons vs sharks game is at ANZ stadium, so there isn't really any home ground advantage i don't think. do you still think the dragons can win? i'm liking the under bet on the storm vs broncos game, i think i might have a go at that too. i was considering the cowboys too, but without bowen i don't think i will. does anyone think they can win without him? riddell is in doubt for eels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 hey Crouch, the dragons vs sharks game is at ANZ stadium, so there isn't really any home ground advantage i don't think. do you still think the dragons can win? i'm liking the under bet on the storm vs broncos game, i think i might have a go at that too Really? Could have sworn it was OKI. For me it's a bit of a no betting match anyway, but I'll still be happy to tip the Dragons. The Sharks have done great with wins over Melbourne and Manly - but look who is missing from those wins: Ben Ross, Reece Williams, Bretty Seymour, Paul Gallen. That's a lot of forwards absent and with Bird at five-eight I'm just not convinced that the Sharks have what it takes to win it. Then again, the Dragons certainly do have what it takes to lose it. The odds are probably right if its at ANZ but the game IMO is on the Dragon's racquet so to speak. As for the Dogs tonight, I'm still convinced I am on the right side. The 2.50 on offer for them is much more appealing than the 1.55 for the Roosters, and as stated they are a System A selection, and I always take my system picks. As for the fatigue factor, I look at a team like the Sharks - 2 big games against Manly and the Storm, very tight and intense and they follow it up last week against the Titans with a bad 2nd half perfromance. I can see that happening again - also worth noting that the Bulldogs have kept their opposition scoreless in the 2nd in their last 2 games. As for the Storm v Broncos game, I'm still not sure if i should just take the small loss and trade out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad89 Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 The NRL site and my tipping site both say ANZ, perhaps it was moved from OKI. Dragons v Sharks Preview: http://nrl.com/News/Latest/tabid/10244/default.aspx?id=50359 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 The NRL site and my tipping site both say ANZ, perhaps it was moved from OKI. Dragons v Sharks Preview: http://nrl.com/News/Latest/tabid/10244/default.aspx?id=50359 No you're definitely right, it's at ANZ. My stats site had the Oki games listed so I just assumed it was there. As I said the Sharks round 1 backrow is basically gone now and looks a bit weak this week (IMO the Sharks backrow is their most dangerous element). If my life were on it I think I would still lean towards the Dragons, but they can be quite inconsistent. Personally though I don't feel it's the best of betting matches and would much prefer to bet on the Cowboys at home at better odds than either of these two teams involved. Have also decided to keep my Broncos bet. IMO the Broncos still have a better forward pack and if they can win this battle then they should still have enough to do it, particularly with Hunt and Lockyer back. Hodges and Marsh are definitely a loss but I'd be much more concerned if it were Hunt and Locky who were out. That being said, I'd probably say that the Bulldogs were the better bet tonight than the Broncos. Just the one interest bet for me tonight - Sonny Bill Williams to be the Channel 9 MOTM. A lot has been said between Sonny and Willy this week, and if the Dogs to get home I feel that Sonny is going to be a big reason why. I'm sure the Channel 9 team would love to speak to Sonny after the match anyway, so they might be biased toward him if Dogs win. Best of luck to everyone tonight :ok PS - How are things going Jumbo? All good I hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Not relating to Round 4, but still on the NRL and a strong looking bet in my opinion. Peter Wallace Dally M Medal Winner @ 34.00 (Lasseters) Wallace is currently =3rd in the Dally M count behind Luke Bailey and Robbie Farrah. Brisbane are going to win a lot more games this year than the Tigers or Titans and so their players are likely to poll more. Wallace has been going fantastic this season and I see no reason why he can't keep it going. At 34.00 this is definitely value and with Luke Patten at 21.00 I really can't understand how the market is at is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bets Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 That to me looks like an ok bet Crouch! Nice work! I'm with you RL punter with the Chooks. I can't see the Dogs getting parity up front with the Chooks, and I think the Chooks at $1.55 is a good bet. I think they could also cover the -4.5 line with a few points up their sleeves. The Storm looked really, really flat to me last week and I hope they have been 'freshened up' to put in a good performance against the Broncos. On current form, the Broncs are huge overs against what was a woeful Storm outfit last week. Should be a good match. I think if Scott Prince is 100% fit (does anyone have any more info on his condition??) the Titans are good things to beat the Raiders tomorrow night. Without Prince I wouldn't be betting on the game though. Happy punting lads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad89 Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 is lockyer confirmed to play? broncos are not at $2.90 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Pretty sure that he will come off the bench with Stagg at five-eight. Ennis at hooker with Perry on the bench. Boyd to centres with Kemp onto the wing. Not sure on the Storm side, but Crocker might be back tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 PS - How are things going Jumbo? All good I hope. :D All Good Bro,i'm enjoying reading this each week,I agree with you tonight on the Dogs and Broncos,although RL Punter is dead keen on the Chooks,But you never know,we won't know untill after the games,Broncos and Dogs for me,more Broncos though.But best of luck to RL Punter. I hope everythings cool with you too Bro? Good luck for the weekend Bro. Anuways good luck for tonight and the weekend Boys.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dingotech Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Hey guys. I'm on the Roosters and Broncos tonight - 2 units on Roosters -4.5 1 unit on Roosters 1-12 1 unit on Broncos +4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maco_Andrej Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 West Tigers @ 1.55 I cant see how the odds are so high, West Tigers have surprised me so far despite there loss to the bulldogs last week, at home i think they will be to strong to the struggling penrith. Prediction: 26-12 West Tigers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rleague_punter Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 That was my bet of the year boys. I don't make stupid statements unless im sure. I could see that scoreline coming from a mile away. I collected big time with the 13+ and the 19+! Probably won't see value like that for a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 That was my bet of the year boys. I don't make stupid statements unless im sure. I could see that scoreline coming from a mile away. I collected big time with the 13+ and the 19+! Probably won't see value like that for a long time. Fantastic Call there Mate,Well done.:clap And also to Dingotech who was on the ball also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dingotech Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 That was my bet of the year boys. I don't make stupid statements unless im sure. I could see that scoreline coming from a mile away. I collected big time with the 13+ and the 19+! Probably won't see value like that for a long time. Great stuff man! I so should have steered clear of the 1-12 then I'd be up for the night too! I knew the Roosters were going to win, so should have got on them hard like you. Thought the Broncos got screwed on several occasions, but thems the breaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 The Broncos got screwed alright.But yes thems the breaks in the world of sports betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 5, 2008 Author Share Posted April 5, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 That was my bet of the year boys. I don't make stupid statements unless im sure. I could see that scoreline coming from a mile away. I collected big time with the 13+ and the 19+! Probably won't see value like that for a long time. Nice work :ok Glad to hear that you collected big on it. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolcricket Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 That was my bet of the year boys. I don't make stupid statements unless im sure. I could see that scoreline coming from a mile away. I collected big time with the 13+ and the 19+! Probably won't see value like that for a long time. Very nice mate, well done. :clap Just in the process of having a look at tonight's games.......what do you guys think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad89 Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Re: NRL Round 4 Prince is in. Does anyone disagree with titans 13+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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