Lingfield 28/03/08

[billy the punter]

3.40 When I first glanced at this race last night (48hr decs are the best thing to happen to punters since betfair) I really liked the look of Canary Islands. I thought he had been given an ok chance by the handicapper and with the yard in flying form I thought he would be the value in the race, I thought General Blucher would be favourite. Obviously I was surprised when I say him chalked up at 11/8 in the RPF tonight. I really thought they would be something like 9/4 joints. I think the forcast is a little stingy and I wouldn't be surprised if he was a little bigger come the race, he is already 13/8 on betfair. But despite that I think he must go close, he has been in my notebook since his 2nd run where he ran an encouraging race despite not being knocked about. His next run was even more encouraging finishing a fast finishing third to good thing Sundowner. Ideally I'd like to see him over further, his future clearly lies over 1m2f and more. However despite the negatives (trip/price) I don't want to let him go and will back him knowing that if he fails today, he'll repay me next time up. The yard have been in great form since his last run, two winners and a 2nd from three runners. Canary Islands 100% of stake 4.50 3-y-o maidens aren't really my thing but I believe this looks a solid two horse race. They have been made backable as Allied Powers is likely to be 2nd fav, making my selections a little more attractively priced. I'm not a fan of the maiden Allied Powers finished third in last time up. The form got let down badly this week (much to my disappointment as I backed one of the runners) and I much prefer the form of Vice Consul and Maadraa. Vice Consul ran a cracker on his debut to finish a length behind Summer Wind (Saturday's Donny maiden winner down the field). He dwelt from his wide draw but still managed to take up the running three out, that was probably a little too early but despite that he still only got beaten a length, battling on. It's a extra 2f today but being out of In The Wings and a Rainbow Quest mare he will more than appreciate it. I make Maadraa the danger who I think will be over priced. His debut form reads well where he finished 2nd at Kempton, the first and third won since. He was turned over at odds on next time out but perhaps lost nothing in defeat finishing 2nd to tonight's winner Dream Desert. He ran another solid race on his last start when he finished 3rd to Al Samha, the 4th won since and the 6th was Canary Islands. Interesting that connections have stuck with the maiden route even though he now has a handicap mark. Ability to stay this much longer trip is taken on trust though. Vice Consul 60% of stake 3.5 betfair Maadraa 40% of stake 5.5 befair

[fintron]

Re: Lingfield 28/03/08 4.15 - the one that caught my eye in this race that could potentially be well treated is Binnion Bay. He is without a win since May 2007 when it won off 66. Been in decline since and OR is now down to 56 for this, but it placed at Lingfield over a mile off 56 LTO and could possible be worthy of a place bet again.