Kempton 28/03

[RussP]

8.50 Kempton 2m handicap, Class 5 with an expected 12 runners. The race revolves around the front 6 in the market and I'm going EW on one of these, albeit at a decent price. Opposable are top weight Lorikeet, who is raised again in mark despite failing to win and has 10st to carry and Coda Agency, another on quite a high mark. Preference is for: Best Selection (RPF 15/2) - Claimed out of the Alan Jarvis yard 2 starts ago for £15k and represents the Mongan combo tonight. This combo won a decent race the other week with a similar type (bits of form, dropped significantly in mark) in the shape of Medieval Maiden, a horse I backed. This horse has always struggled against the handicapper but is dropped 3lb tonight to a career low of 62. Is stepped up markedly to 2m for this run having plyed its trade over 1m4f career to date, which looks sure to suit based on some decent staying-on efforts over this track. Since moving to this stable, has had its sights set a little lower by racing in Class 6 which it faces again. Plenty of promise shown lto and the grade coupled with trip and mark could prove crucial here. Despite being a 2m race, has a good draw in box 10 and should get a decent early position here just off the pace. Fitness is guaranteed having raced just 2 weeks ago and this horse must have a great chance to open its account with conditions in its favour. Expect a price of around 8/1.

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton 28/03 7.20 Another A/W claimer here. The pick of the weights and the most interesting runner here is Apache Dawn. I remember this sluicing up by 11l in the mud last year on his handicap debut. He was clobbered by the handicapper after that and failed miserably to build on it in three final runs for Kevin Ryan before changing hands for just 10 grand in October. Even if the impressive win wasn't a fluke, then he clearly lost a far bit of ability. He was still badly handicapped off 80 when he made his debut for Gary Moore in December but ran a stormer to finish 2nd at Kempton beaten a neck by Atlantic Story, a race that has worked out really well. He again failed to build on a good run however, finishing down the field in his three runs this term. However if anyone is going to get a race out of him it will be Gary Moore and he is massively down in grade here. He must enter calculations. A horse going the other way, improving, is Jamie Osbourne's Not Now Lewis. The penny finally dropped with this horse in late January and he has won twice and been placed in three small handicaps. He has a bit to find at the weights with one or two (although as mentioned Apache Dawn's mark is misleading) but is running too well not to figure against so many out of sort typs. The stable is in fine form too with three winners from their last six runners. I'll have a F/C combo the above two and Dushstorm, who just misses out of the calculations here as I believe he may need further to win in this grade. Not Now Lewis 60% of stake Apache Dawn 40% of stake