Newbury 28/03

[bowles10]

2.40 Nov hcap chase Firstly, i was attracted to Hobbs' horse I'm Supreme as philip has won this race twice in the last 5 years & it gets in off a low weight. However looking at the trends of this race, in 8 years, it has been won by a 7-8yo on 7 of those occasions (6yo won last year). Rustarix is the interesting horse for me from Kings yard. 2nd 2L behind Gold medallist LTO was surely the best race it could run & runs off same mark of 123 here. Those horses carrying weight seem to do well in the race also.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Newbury 28/03 2:10 Dragon Eye probably deserves to be fav but I was at Fontwell when he was second. He did not look the easiest of rides. Seems to me as though temperamental horses rarely win when it is raining. Often back lady riders but Von Galen might need driving which is not Miss Davidsons style. Stable companion Prince Du Beury is crying out for this trip / test having stayed on really well last time, can improve today. Canalturn might have won a poorish race last time but for stumbling after the last. Could improve if as expected, the rains come. Have been looking for Talenti running over 2 ½ miles again. In my opinion he should improve for it (as long as it is not very soft, making it more like a 3 miler). Now around 18/1 to 20/1. Looks far too big. A market move for either the hurdling debutant Balybub or Rathmullen (who may do better in handicaps) could be significant. 2:40 Island Flyer is improving rapidly but has not had much experience. Could be taken on for the lead here with a few other front runners. If his jumping stands the test has obvious potential. Just For Men has improved for the switch to this stable, stays well and goes on good-soft and heavy. Rustarix has been outpaced at times in his races and may be able to improve upped 3f in trip. The one I like at a price is Historic Place, was travelling really well when a bad mistake ended his challenge 3 out on chasing debut here. Is 5lbs out of the handicap but is capable of better. Stable in good form and the more rain the better. My Immortal was fancied at Cheltenham but jumped poorly in blinkers. This looks an inadequate trip but had potential before that run and a market move could be significant. I'm Supreme improved to win a poorish race when upped to 3m last time. This is far more competitive and has often been in and out of form. 4:25 This looks a poor race for the money with most out of form, temperamental or good ground horses. One good ground horse Cortinus is already out and would not be surprised if “fav” Distiller comes does not run. Improved significantly on a sound surface last time and can be opposed at the price. Panjo Bere ran well last time, back from a short break. May be best fresh which is a worry but is worth chancing at the price. Kings Revenge ran o.k at Cheltenham in the County and has a useful 7lb claimer on board here. Is more consistent than most of these. If a market move comes for Motorway on his reappearance, it could be significant. Well handicapped on his form of a couple of years ago and lightly raced since. Only 1mm of rain overnight but I live about 15 miles away and it has not stopped raining this morning. I predict good-soft or even soft going.