Southwell 26/03/08

[billy the punter]

2.50 Fire Up The Band We can all see that this claimer is a match. Fire Up The Band is the clear form pick, lowered in grade but first time up on a uncertain surface, while Savile's Delight is the in form C&Der. So, quality or fitness? Fire Up The Band's rating is dropping like a stone while Savile's Delight's is raising close to near his career best - commendable at the age of 9. Despite this there is still 13lb between them on official figures, that shows how far apart ability wise they were not so long ago. I know it's theortical/impossible but if they lined up against each other on each of their 6th last run Fire Up The Band would be giving away 45lb if it were a handicap. That is huge, and they face today only 8lb apart - has he really regressed that much, that quickly? Well, no not really, his last 5f run in August was a cracking run. Fitness may not be as big a worry as first throught as his first time out form reads 137151, the furthest he was beat was 3.5l and with the 3rd he won the race on his side. That's quite an impressive first time up record and in the past two seasons his first run was his best. It may be that these days, FTO is the best time to catch him. He only wins when making all though, so I'm hoping he'll have the speed to lead Guto, who also likes to lead. Savile's takes a while to get going and I'm not sure he can give away a lead to such a quality horse. I thought the yard was a little slow this year but they have had a winner and a few nice places. It's going to be around evens I know, but that is value on all known facts.

[fintron]

Re: Southwell 26/03/08 The battle between Fire up the Band and Saville's Delight is probably the highlight of the card don't you reckon? I'm not getting involved myself though. There is also a little duel set to take place in the 3.15, that of Dickie le Davoir vs Came Back. Came back is seeking the four timer and is looking to build on some decent course form which reads 4125211, but has something to find with Dickie le Davoir at the weights. Came Back beat his rival by 2 lengths when receiving 6 lbs over CD in early February. Today Came Back concedes 8 lbs, so Dickie le Davoir could be on to reverse those placings today? Dickie le Davoir runs off a mark of 74 today, but has won off 85 previously on the AW, whereas Came Back races of a career high mark of 82, his last win came off 76 LTO. The 4.35 looks a race short of quality in my opinion, so I'm happy to take a chance with one of the few that looks to at least have some sort of ability, Keon. Proven on the fibresand earlier in his career, Keon is proven over this trip too and races of a mark of 45 - which he has placed off on his last three runs (beaten 2l LTO at Wolv). Russel Kennemore's mount only has 2 wins from 36 career runs to his name which doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence (those wins came off 48 and 50 on the AW) but only the London Gang and Shifty have won more so even Keon's modest strike rate is better than most here.