Pontefract 25/03/08

[RussP]

2.40 Pontefract<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

A 6f handicap over the turning 6f here, 17 runners competing in this 0-70, Class 5 race. Being a left hand turn on a left handed track, you would think that it would favour low numbers but surprisingly, high drawn runners that race prominently, just off the lead, have fared well in recent years as runners generally come down the centre of the track, particularly with ease in the ground. The one that carrys my money here hails from a high draw at a double figure price in:

7 Steel Blue (RPF 12/1) - Comes here carrying 9-2, 2lb off top weight, with a mark of 68. Has been off the track for 143 days and fitness has to be taken on trust but stands a good chance on last seasons form. Started last season off a mark of 81 and begins this 13lb lower but it still had a half decent season, winning once and being placed 3 times off marks of 69 (win), 69, 68 & 68. These were the only times the horse raced off a mark in the 60’s, which it faces today, so looks well weighted to go close. Has been plying its trade in Class 3 and 4 handicaps but dropped to Class 5 today, where it finished 7^th, 2^nd and 3^rd on its 3 tries in this grade last term. Is drawn high in 16 but does race prominently in its race so I’m hopeful of it getting a good early position before swooping down the centre of the track off the final bend. Does all its racing over 6f so trip is fine. Ground expected to be on the easy side which poses no problems for this horse. Is effective on all ground with 2 of its placed efforts last term on ground softer than good. Has won on its seasonal reappearance before so hopefully fitness will not be an issue. Decent jockey on board, taking a further 3lb off the horses back, so looks handicapped to go close. There are always question marks on a horse’s first run of the season but there are more positives than negatives so has to be considered a good E/W bet at tissue price of 12/1.

[billy the punter]

Re: Pontefract 25/03/08 Although I'm a flat bod, this time of the season isn't easy as fitness is a real issue. I touched on it yesterday, if it isn't a big race (where you'd expect runners to be 100%) you're guessing unless the horse has been on the A/W or NH. I just find it hard to fancy anything at the lesser meetings in the first few weeks. As a result I took the day off on Monday, trouble is I went to see Millwall draw 0-0 with Luton - should've tried that Fairyhouse placepot instead! Going for a what I call a 'ticking-over bet' in the first at Ponty. In order to keep the bankroll climbing and the boredom at bay. 2.10 Pentathlon e/w I backed him on his last start over a mile at Southwell, and I pretty much gave up at the halfway mark, only to see him stay on really well to finish 2nd. He would've won had he not challenged down the inside, something you just can't do at any of our left-handed A/W tracks. I backed him on the back of his debut run late last year where he finished 7th at Lingfield. The 2nd, 3rd, and 5th all won next time out (1st and 4th haven't run). Should appreciate the 1m2f here based on his running last time out and the fact that he is out of 'Derby horse' Storming Home. Hoping it will act of the easy ground as he acted on fibresand. His sire won on soft but was always more at home on quicker ground. According to the handicapper he has a bit to find with the jolly Bouguereau who somehow has a rating of 104! :eek I think he is overrated (literaly) and under priced at around 10/11 (current betfair), and I think I have pretty much an each-way bet to nothing at around 4/1 (5/1 RPF). It's currently 5.3 on betfair but I'll be backing it elsewhere as it's E/W. An interesting runner in the race is the Fanshawe newcomer Sphere. I really nicely bred filly. I'll be keeping an eye on her today and I wouldn't be suprised if she turned out to be a typical Fanshawe older horse improver over further later in the season.