Falbrav Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 4.10 Warwick. Ping Pong Sivola. Lay. (Racing Post F/C 3/1) I'm against this mare today, as although she won last time and can win today, there are a couple of reason to oppose her that make her price seem too short. Firstly the race she won last time wasn't the best, and suggests she needs 'at least' a repeat of that form and probably a bit better today to be winning again. Secondly the weights suggest that she again needs to be 'at least' at her best and probably a bit better against slightly better weighted rivals as the bare form and weights stand, so again no room at all for error, if of course certain others run their races. Also we can throw in the heavy ground, as although she handles it, it makes carrying such weights a harder task as we all know. I can see her sitting just behind the pace and going well, but as the race reaches the latter stages and the weights start to kick in, she should find at least one or two better weighted rivals a bit too tough to handle. So all in all the 3/1 does look skinny in context with certain others in the race, therefore a lay much more than a play. If she goes and wins again, then I'll be the first to say well done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunnychaser Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March i will keep my eye on it but at the moment it is 6.0 to lay this should get better thanks for the informative tip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falbrav Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March It's currently a 'nonsense' market, with overrounds 107% on the 'back' side, and 86.9% on the lay side. Best wait until the shops open, then it'll take shape and be much more informative. Although I'd be very surprised if 3/1 (4.0) was around for long, if 'any' amount of time at all. That's not to say it cannot win, just to say 3/1 is poor value in context with the race. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falbrav Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March Meeting in doubt anyhow, so let's hope it passes the inspection before we start worrying about her winning or not! All the best for tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam7982 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March 4.35 Naas Imaalhall Ran well last time out and should have the beating of a weaker field than LTO. Likes testing conditions and should prove to good within this field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainbow Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March my best bet of the day would be to lay turners touch 200 kemp. racing post sp 9-4. hard to win with as it is, and a small field will make more awkward. has form to win, but hard ride and tactics could go against. if cruising looking like winner, still makes it hard for himself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verisimilitude Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March LIEUTENANT PIGEON 3.30 Kempton. LAY. Racing Post F/C 4-1. Not a keen Paul Eddery fan, as he always seems to need luck in running himself, and although he won on this horse last time, he's going to have to be very astute early to deal with this poor draw today. The weights ask a repeat of his recent best, so with needing that and with the draw, it's not looking at all easy for him. Several others would be better weighted on their best form and best recent form, so the value call is to lay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March 2.50 Exeter - Khadija E/W 16/1 @ Sporting Bet I think the price is big for this one. She won at Taunton last month and the ground was pretty testing that day. Then received 5lb raise in the weights and struggled on better ground. Back to heavy with the talented Charlie Poste claiming 3lbs and trainer bang on form I can see her getting involved today. She stays and off the low weight she will be up there in the end challenging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
youngveteran Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March my lay of the day would of been ping pong sivola but someone has already picked it. therefore it has to be richard hannons horse crystal glazer running at 16.00 kempton (get on the price will defo shorten 7/2) (IN FORM TRAINER HAD PACO BOY ON THE WEEKEND RATES THIS HORSE ASWELL) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March my lay of the day would of been ping pong sivola but someone has already picked it. therefore it has to be richard hannons horse crystal glazer running at 16.00 kempton (get on the price will defo shorten 7/2) It's perfectly fine to have the same horse mate! If this is your bbotd, then go for it :ok And :welcome btw! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigs Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March Kempton 16:30 Mister New York WIN LTO was in a class 1 race, and it didn't do better because it had some traffic problems, but kept on approaching the final furlong, so trip doesn't seem to pose a problem. Now we have a short field, down to class 3, down in weights, Kirsty on board, and lets hope she doesn't leave this too late today! Should take the beating:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March my lay of the day would of been ping pong sivola but someone has already picked it. therefore it has to be richard hannons horse crystal glazer running at 16.00 kempton (get on the price will defo shorten 7/2) We need a reason as to why its your best bet of the day. Must be something that makes you think it will win, trip, track, in form, trainer, well in at the weights etc etc..... Have a look at the other posters in the competition. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March 320 Exeter : Cathedral Rock 1pt win Cant question the horse has ability and enough of it to win this race comfortably, obviously has a doubt about his jumping at the moment but no surprise to see Timmy Murphy back on board who won on him three runs ago. Because of its last two runs we get a very good price here so with the ground in his favour too i'm prepared to take a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socky1 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March 4:05 Naas Wheels Up Out and out mudlark, who looked very impressive last time out,and the the 3 length senond to Fiverforthree on the penultimate start looks very good form in light of Fiverforthree's Cheltenham win. The only serious opponent mourne Rambler has best form in good ground and looks like the horse will want more than 2 miles with time. 1pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmallTimePunter Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March 3:20 Exeter - THEATRE DIVA - 1 PT WIN Horse is proven on this Heavy going, has won at the course, is off a light weight with a claimer on board, often very usefull in these conditions. Is progressive & has an excellent chance here today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigs Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March Kempton 16:30 Mister New York WIN LTO was in a class 1 race, and it didn't do better because it had some traffic problems, but kept on approaching the final furlong, so trip doesn't seem to pose a problem. Now we have a short field, down to class 3, down in weights, Kirsty on board, and lets hope she doesn't leave this too late today! Should take the beating:hope Again, IMO ... left it to late again... :@ had it all to win... and again, got the burden of being a NAP ...:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam7982 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Tues 18th March 4.35 Naas Imaalhall Ran well last time out and should have the beating of a weaker field than LTO. Likes testing conditions and should prove to good within this field. 1st 4 Imaalhall (IRE) 5-2 F :nana:nana:nana:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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