AFL Rd. 1.

[TazaD]

Still a bit under a week away, but lines already up, and one is WAY off! Adelaide 1.80 to beat the Doggies?! In Melbourne, sure, but Dogs will be lucky to cobble together a side! Massive problems in defense (what's new? ). Williams out, White likely out (not much good anyway!)...Lake's first game back from hip surgury. Dogs kicked second fewest goals in pre-season and again look to be relying on their running players to score. Crows will have Burton, Tippett, likely Bock up forward no doubt getting super service from the middle. Crows won both meetings last year by 30's, but dominated both...30-17 shots and 32-18. Dogs haven't won in their last 6 indoors as turnovers bounce quickly back the other way....av. loss in those games has been 58!! Fully expected about 1.40, and won't be surprised if it is closer to that than the current 1.80 at game time. Kanga's have won 6 straight v. Essendon, and look likely again at 1.90. Bombers won just 2 of their last 9 games last year (one v. Carlton), Kangas played well in Melbourne all season, but struggled on the road. Hawthorn are certainties @ 1.34, but will wait for the spread...reckon they can cover the 20 or so... ...and not sure what makes St. Kilda such big favs over Sydney. I think the news of the Swans decline is a bit premature...will be tempted by them @ +17ish.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Hodge, Crawford, Brown, Lewis all to miss through suspension and lose the important Joel Smith from last year. I'm likely to have a crack at Melbourne despite they've limped to Round-1 themselves. New I should have grabbed the 3.50 lasseters as they are into 3.20 with them now. Kangas are my bet of the round (see my SP write up). I agree Taza. People might be outsmarting themselves with Sydney and Reiwoldt underdone, Gehrig? Baker to miss. I want to have a closer look but I'm tempted by this price. Am seeing Blues-Tigers as evens, so Tigers a possibility. Might just watch Adelaide-dogs and see what the real season holds.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. The more I think about the cracking opening game the AFL have scheduled for us, the more I'm starting to lean Tigers as well. I remember them having a terrible scheduling run where they played about the top 9 teams in a row!!...then came out and beat Collingwood late. Obviously a 40-23 scoring shot drubbing last year in Rd. 1. is a concern, but all the Judd hype...pretty much going in without a ruckman against a reasonably fit Simmonds. Hawthorn showed in NAB Wk. 2 how much the Blues have improved... Don't think I'll be tempted by the 2.25...but I do see the Herald Sun has a "weighted" footy tipping comp this year. Effectively betting $1 a game, and get the return, rather than a single point for each tip. You'd think that's give us perceptive gambling types a bit of a leg up... :lol Not too concerned about the missing Hawks...Dew steps into Smith's shoes nicely. Williams back up forward. McGlynn to fill a role in the middle, and Tuck has looked good so far in the pretend stuff. Pretty sure they'll still have far too much for the D's.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. So long as there's no play on off the post, no boundary umpires throwing in from CHF or defenders are allowed to rush a behind as wellas players actually trying then I'll take anything first up, Taza. :tongue2 Richmond 2.28 Pinnacle Carlton considerably short of their best with Walker, S. O'hAilpin, Fisher to miss, Stevens didn’t play the last two practice games, Fev off some rehab. Depth has been a weakness and they’ve recruited no one of significance (well no one that’s had much of a kick in six months). Richmond go in strong (for them) with Schulz to miss. Can easily see Richmond letting it rip, particularly if Wallace has learnt the lessons of some over coaching (he did allow them their heads late in ’07), while plenty of Carlton hype could easily work the opposite. Richmond the stronger squad and 1.85 fave IMO.

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Tigers for me too... wont bet or writeup till next week..

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Have to admit, the Crows look really good at that price, especially with the no-name Doggies backline due to the injuries. Be interesting to see the line on this game. I'm with the others and on the Tigers as well. The Blues will be missing Hampson, Ackland and Kruzer (spelling) in the ruck with only Cloke doing the duties. Simmonds should smash him and give first use to the Tigers onballers. Good Luck everyone.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. There's talk that Da Fev might get a club suspension for Rnd 1 for his prostrate problem. You would think that it would change the prices dramatically. Thoughts?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. A lot of books are OTB for that game. I personally doubt the club that blatantly tanked last year (let's get real) would have the gumption to drop Fev. If he is dropped, Carlton backers needn't worry too much. Richmond are good at losing games they couldn't possibly lose. What's wrong with urinating on a nightclub window, anyway? Who honestly hasn't done that?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Still 2.08 @ BF...

[ads25]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Fev fined $10,000 by the club, but is a certain starter on Thursday night. Has just been confirmed. :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. I don't think Fev will get a kick anyway. Judd will just be breaking the arc and sailing it over his head all the time. Fev's gunna hate this. I hope everyone got on North in time ... or was I the only one?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Nope. You'd already moved the prices...

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Carlton v Richmond Welcome to what will be the over-hyped game of 2008. Juddmania has run wild on Melbourne and everyone is fed up with it, even Carlton supporters. Just because you have a great player, it doesn't translate into you becoming a great team. Just ask Bobby Skilton. Rumours of Nick Stevens missing the game will be bad news for the Blues. Carlton need Judd and Stevens both playing to be even competitive in any game. Blues have 6 of their best 22 missing with major deficiencies in the ruck and defence. You had to laugh at Ratten saying Fevola is in career best form. His last major outing was being held to a single goal by the much maligned Zac Dawson. Richmond are holding Coughlan back, but have put a strong team on the park. Have to be wary of them because they did burn a few with that woeful effort in the NAB Cup. Captain Kane Johnson has a good record on Judd and that battle will be a key to the result. Their forward line also looks solid with Richardson and Brown set for a big night. It's just a difficult match to assess and I'm not particularly interested in it. But for the sake of making a tip, I'll pick the Blues. From a tanking point of view, it has to be a draw. Predictor - Richmond by 2 goals. Team Strength - Carlton 77%, Richmond 82%. Tip - Carlton. Port Adelaide v Geelong Grand final rematch that has snuck under the radar. Port are without Wilson and Pettigrew which hampers their defence. Otherwise, almost full strength. Hopefully, Tredrea is back to full fitness, because he let Port down last year. Port have psycholgical issues with Geelong not only from the Grand Final, but from the corresponding clash last year. Geelong's first half of that game was arguably the best of the season. Port's midfield is terrific and they'll be on the offensive all night. Trying to shut down Geelong's guns just plays into their hands. The Cats will miss Ottens who was the architect of getting them into the Grand Final and leaves Blake with a huge responsibility against Brogan and Lade. Hawkins fills the shoes of N.Ablett had only needs to reproduce his output to keep Geelong potent. I find it difficult to see Port keeping Geelong to a losing score and Port being allowed to kick a winning score against the league's best defence. Predictor - Geelong by 3 goals. Team Strength - Port 86%, Geelong 81%. Tip - Geelong. Suggested Bets - Geelong Line (-7.5)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. ...besides which, the more I think, the more I like the Bombers!! Lost last season meeting, but had 3 more shot...same I50's and almost identical contested possies... Knights hs got the young Bombers up and running...they only got beaten in the last minute in a game they really controlled v. the Saints in NAB (eventual winners obviously)... ...in all likelyhood it won't last the season, but I'm starting to like their chances in the first 4-5 rounds. Rumours abounding that Stevens is out of tonight's game...got a very big feeling it's true. Extremely tempted by Swans +18.5 and Hawks -19... ...who the hell is backing the Doggies??!! Chaplin also out of Port's line-up I believe BC.

[Maco_Andrej]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. I got the Blues @ 1.85 I have confidence in Judd, i would really like to see him preform well. Don't think Fev will do much he is past his best, he also wouldn't be feeling well after copping a $10,000 fine. Despite that i cant see Richmond winning, i have seen them lose by large margins on a consistent basis, hopefully todays the same. Blues by 4 goals.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Anyone with news on whether Brogan plays?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Brogan plays...matters not! (second year of journo school now! :lol) Ash, any notes on last year's St. K./Swans game?...Find it hard to resist Siddy with +19, but last year's game @ Dome is a worry with much the same teams... Hellup! :notworthy

[Maco_Andrej]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Adelaide @ 1.80 Those odds are to good to ignore, Western Bulldogs have defenders missing as appose to Adelaide's full squad. The dogs have been shocking this pre season failing to score enough, Adelaide made it to the final where they were beat by the better team, despite the loss they still impressed me through out the cup. Adelaide to win by 3 goals. Hawthorn @ 1.37 Don't see how they lose to Melbourne, squad is to strong, form is to good and off season has been better. This should be a comfortable win for Hawthorn 5-6 goals.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Swans are 3.40 at The Greek and I tried to open an account to take that but the sign up page has a glitch so I rang their 24 x 7 phone number and just heard how important my call was to them about 55 times before giving up - maybe a good friday thing? '07 TD; Saints 8.5-4.5. Syd 2-3 past two seasons. Rd-7 '07; Saints 97-71, Syd in poor form at the time though and didn't give a yelp and were looking a certain bottom eight team. They did go in strong (but no Everitt) while Saints had players missing (including Baker) and Rix was first ruck. Swans travelled (7-day) Melb for 2nd week. Ross Lyon new a lot about the Swans players and there was a huge stat in favour of coaches first up against their old club (last nine or something??). I think there's enough reason there to dismiss this form somewhat, particuarly given Syd are not off a GF this time. Rd-19 TS; Syd 82-65. Both teams were in good form at the time. Saints had a stronger squad than Rd-7, although couple of fringe players let them down bad. Syd still the stronger squad. Was Saints first game at venue. Rix again was first Ruck. Syd exploited some over negative play by Saints. I've got player strength about even although I concede Saints deserve decent favourtism. Rucks are a concern and Saints depth looks more solid this time. Still, NAB Cup was total garbage comp and Gehrig, Hayes, Harvey, Riewoldt, Ball are all players still not likely to be at their best, so I really don't think Saints should be treated as if they are in some tip top mid season form.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Hearin' ya. Won 1 game by more than 17 in their last 10 last year...30 over Freo in Melbourne with just 5 more shots... Can't ignore over 3 goals...(of course, I'll go the soft option ;) ) Thank you kind sir.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Global had them [email protected] which was knocked off. I've taken the +19 also, as well as Tri-bet either [email protected] Sportsbet - I have that a 2.75 shot. I may try again later for the 3.40.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Collingwood - 3 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 86%. - Midfield depth will be tested, but their midfield is still better than the Dockers. - Defence doesn't look great, but they just need to concentrate on Pavlich to put a handbrake on their scoring. Fremantle - 4 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 87%. - They need to find a way of replacing Hasleby, preferably someone who is quick and can get 25 possessions a game. - Defence is their strong point, but will have their hands full with Collingwood's variety up front. I think it will be similar to last year's game at the MCG, where the Pies kept them at arm's length all night for a narrow victory. Predictor - Collingwood by 1 goal Tip - Collingwood St.Kilda - 6 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 76%. - A few surprising omissions with L.Fisher and Fiora missing, but their midfield and forward line look very powerful. - Their defence might struggle against Sydney's forward line, but knowing how these two teams will try and choke each other in the midfield, there wont be much quality ball delivered to the forwards. Sydney - 5 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 81%. - Plenty of experience missing and look pretty fragile in the ruck. - Goodes and Kirk need to control the midfield to be a realistic chance of winning. The Saints play 2/3rd's of their matches at the Dome this year and must take advantage of this to finish top 4. The Swans lost comfortably in both their games at the Dome last year and will stuggle again to beat the Saints. I know it wont be pretty. That's a certainty. Predictor - St.Kilda by 1 point. Tip - St.Kilda West Coast - Cannot put a better team on the park. - Interesting to see how the midfield functions and how they'll combat Brisbane's runners. - This game will give us a fair reflection on which direction the Eagles are heading. Their forward line holds a clear advantage over Brisbane's defence. Brisbane - McGrath the the only big name missing for Brisbane. - Good to see Bradshaw back to take the pressure off Brown. Brennan may be used in defence if they start to struggle. - Brisbane's midfield is just about the best in the game and work very hard defensively. Kerr has to be stopped for the Lions to prevail. Home ground advantage has me leaning to West Coast, but it will be a cliffhanger. Predictor - West Coast by 1 goal. Tip - West Coast Western Bulldogs - Team strength of 94% and have their best 19 playing. - They have a poor record against Adelaide, but with Johnson playing game 300, they'll do everything possible to get the victory. - Minson in the forward line could be an error with Rutten or Bock running of him all day. Having Griffen back will lift the Dogs big time. Adelaide - 4 of their best 22 missing and team strength of 84%. Knights and Massie will be missed. - Solid back 6 that will be difficult to counter, but a forward line that will struggle to kick 100 points. - Very light on in the ruck department. I bet they wished they kept Hudson now. Crows have been in top form throughout the preseason, whilst the Dogs have shown little. The Crows need to take advantage of their good draw early and should take take the points. Predictor - Adelaide by 2 goals. Tip - Adelaide Hawthorn - 5 of their best 22 missing, including 4 of their best 10 and team strength of 71%. - Not much midfield depth to speak of and alot of pressure placed onto Mitchell, Sewell and Bateman. Their running power is significantly reduced because of their suspensions. - Defence will be at full stretch trying to combat a full strength Melbourne forward line. Melbourne - 6 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 78%. - Defence looks fragile against Hawthorn's monsters not forgetting the introduction of Williams and Rioli at ground level. - Best way of winning is to blanket Mitchell and Sewell which will stop the supply to his forwards. If they can pull this off, the Demons will win. Hawks need to get of to a winning start, because their next month is horrendous. Hawthorn vs Melbourne are always interesting games and the underdog has a great record. Predictor - Hawthorn by 2 points. Tip - Hawthorn Suggested Bets - Collingwood Win, St.Kilda Margin (1-39). Good luck to you all.

[Maco_Andrej]

Re: AFL Rd. 1.

Collingwood - 3 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 86%. - Midfield depth will be tested, but their midfield is still better than the Dockers. - Defence doesn't look great, but they just need to concentrate on Pavlich to put a handbrake on their scoring. Fremantle - 4 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 87%. - They need to find a way of replacing Hasleby, preferably someone who is quick and can get 25 possessions a game. - Defence is their strong point, but will have their hands full with Collingwood's variety up front. I think it will be similar to last year's game at the MCG, where the Pies kept them at arm's length all night for a narrow victory. Predictor - Collingwood by 1 goal Tip - Collingwood St.Kilda - 6 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 76%. - A few surprising omissions with L.Fisher and Fiora missing, but their midfield and forward line look very powerful. - Their defence might struggle against Sydney's forward line, but knowing how these two teams will try and choke each other in the midfield, there wont be much quality ball delivered to the forwards. Sydney - 5 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 81%. - Plenty of experience missing and look pretty fragile in the ruck. - Goodes and Kirk need to control the midfield to be a realistic chance of winning. The Saints play 2/3rd's of their matches at the Dome this year and must take advantage of this to finish top 4. The Swans lost comfortably in both their games at the Dome last year and will stuggle again to beat the Saints. I know it wont be pretty. That's a certainty. Predictor - St.Kilda by 1 point. Tip - St.Kilda West Coast - Cannot put a better team on the park. - Interesting to see how the midfield functions and how they'll combat Brisbane's runners. - This game will give us a fair reflection on which direction the Eagles are heading. Their forward line holds a clear advantage over Brisbane's defence. Brisbane - McGrath the the only big name missing for Brisbane. - Good to see Bradshaw back to take the pressure off Brown. Brennan may be used in defence if they start to struggle. - Brisbane's midfield is just about the best in the game and work very hard defensively. Kerr has to be stopped for the Lions to prevail. Home ground advantage has me leaning to West Coast, but it will be a cliffhanger. Predictor - West Coast by 1 goal. Tip - West Coast Western Bulldogs - Team strength of 94% and have their best 19 playing. - They have a poor record against Adelaide, but with Johnson playing game 300, they'll do everything possible to get the victory. - Minson in the forward line could be an error with Rutten or Bock running of him all day. Having Griffen back will lift the Dogs big time. Adelaide - 4 of their best 22 missing and team strength of 84%. Knights and Massie will be missed. - Solid back 6 that will be difficult to counter, but a forward line that will struggle to kick 100 points. - Very light on in the ruck department. I bet they wished they kept Hudson now. Crows have been in top form throughout the preseason, whilst the Dogs have shown little. The Crows need to take advantage of their good draw early and should take take the points. Predictor - Adelaide by 2 goals. Tip - Adelaide Hawthorn - 5 of their best 22 missing, including 4 of their best 10 and team strength of 71%. - Not much midfield depth to speak of and alot of pressure placed onto Mitchell, Sewell and Bateman. Their running power is significantly reduced because of their suspensions. - Defence will be at full stretch trying to combat a full strength Melbourne forward line. Melbourne - 6 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 78%. - Defence looks fragile against Hawthorn's monsters not forgetting the introduction of Williams and Rioli at ground level. - Best way of winning is to blanket Mitchell and Sewell which will stop the supply to his forwards. If they can pull this off, the Demons will win. Hawks need to get of to a winning start, because their next month is horrendous. Hawthorn vs Melbourne are always interesting games and the underdog has a great record. Predictor - Hawthorn by 2 points. Tip - Hawthorn Suggested Bets - Collingwood Win, St.Kilda Margin (1-39). Good luck to you all.

Where do you get your info from, seems like its good help.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. TAB have the St Kilda v Siddy (gotta love those Rugby guys :eyes) Tri Bet Either U15.5 @ 3.55. Forgot to check there :$, but I put the rest on that excellent price seeing the 3.40SU is gone at The Greek. Yeah ... Freo! Should have pulled the trigger on 2.80 to miss Eight. Looked a little bit like still some of the same old.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Think we got that one sorted son ... and thank goodness for "please hold the line, your call is important to us". A 3.55 pile up on the close finish sure beats the hell out of a two point stubby thrower. :welcomeMaco. BC will possibly answer the question himself but it helps to get a few spread sheets going. Eg

West Coast		145	Brisbane		134
		22			22
		6.6			6.1
Glass, Darren	D	9	Roe, Jason	D
Graham, Jaymie	D	5	Copeland, Robert	D	6
Hunter, Adam	D	7	Adcock, Jed	D	6
Jones, Brett	D	5	Selwood, Troy	D	5
Selwood, Adam	D	6	Merrett, Daniel	D	4
Waters, Beau	D	6	Brown, Jonathan	F	10
Wirrpanda, David	D	8	McGrath, Ashley	F
Armstrong, Steven	F		Brennan, Jared	U	6
Hansen, Ashley	F	8	Bradshaw, Daniel	F	3
LeCras, Mark	F	6	Clark, Mitchell	K
Lynch, Quinten	F	8	Black, Simon	M	9
Staker, Brent	F	7	Power, Luke	M	7
Kennedy, Josh	K		Lappin, Nigel	M	7

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Interesting that Tim Clarke named as an emerg for the Hawks and newly upgraded Rookie Stokes has been named on the bench. Rumors that Mark Williams may miss with Clarke coming back into the 22. I attended training yesterday at Waverely and no-one looked under a cloud and Willo trained really well. Hawks already have Hodge, Lewis, Crawford and Brown missing. Would Williams missing change peoples opinions of the game? I won't be touching this game at all. Cheers!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. I expected them not to pick him anyway. I wouldn't expect great form from him just now. Slightly stronger with Clark in IMO.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Full marks to the Ten commentary team for a positive perspective call of the Saints/Sydney 100-pointer :clap. Even Darcy calling that Montagna from the kick-in late game was setting up an OOB play :clap.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Yeah, definately good work on that 'miss' Ash...winner at a better price anyway!...not to mention (as you say) the cost of a replacement tv. Fair turnaround from the first 20 minutes or so when Sydney just didn't loko in the race at all...but as expected, Saints struggle to score, esp. with big Fraze out. I've just got a funny feeling about Melbourne today...no idea...no great logic to it! Melbourne lost a lot of close games early last season, but their defense looks terrible in this one... I'm gunna leave it alone too I think. Besides, I'll be too confused to think after sitting here in a Doggies top, with $ on the Crows and with 5-6 different players in 3 seperate Fantasy leagues... ...If I was Bender, my head would explode. ...Speaking of Bender...An hour to get to the shop of bottles and back...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 1. Who were you barracking for at the end, Taza? Ps. I'm not a Tax Office snoop. ;) :D