Aphobos Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 A new GH for me after the last long hopeless one. This time around, like everytime, I hope to stick to it. The staking system I will use is totally robbed from madnesstiger and his great 100% Madness thread. I've taken the idea from there and changed it a little for my own purpose here. I'll try running this for as long as I can. If the losses are too big though I'll leave it alone and move on to the next thing. This GH I will do in a series of rounds. For the first round I will start with £100.00 and the next round will be dependant on the outcome of the previous round. Before I explain that it's best to outline how a round ends- basically either success or failure. Failure is based obviously in having no money left to bet with. Success is based on trebling the starting balance- which is very ambitious I know but that's what the GH threads are all about. With a success I'll take back half and the rest will be used for the next round. So if I can finish with a balance of £400 on t£he first £100 I'll take back £200 and leave £200 in for the next round. If I end the round with nothing then for the next round I'll stick half back in- £50 in essence and give it another go. £25 is the minimum I will start with so that gives me an outlay all in of £200 covering 4 rounds and if they all lose then that will be that. The staking is a bit more straight forward. Basically with every bet I will try to increase the balance by 10% which is a big ask to do consistently. I will be attempting this with a single of the football of odds no less than 1/2 but they can be anything above that. Where it gets a bit more complicated is with the inevitable losing bets. On the event of a loss I will allow myself 2 bets to win back the losing stake. Every loser after that will be allowed another bet to get it back. So as an example the first bet is £10 stake @evens to win the same back (10%). If that loses then I must win make £5.00 on each of the next two bets. If the next bet then is @1/2 then I'd neded to stake £10.00. If that loses then I have a total required recoup of £20.00 to get back over three bets which works out around £6.67 on each of the next three bets. And so on. That can get very messy but I've got a spreadsheet that takes care of all that. Each round can be thought of in a number of stages. 15 stages will do the job- ie 10% x 15 will treble the balance. At any time I will either be trying to get to the next stage or recouping. Recouping involves getting back any lost stakes and if achieved I will be back to the stage I was at ready to move to the next one. The recouping is where it can all go wrong. Even if I have completed 14 stages at the last stage I could lose everything- I calculate that at minimum odds of 1/2 that would only take 5 bets in a row to do. So no matter if it seems to be going well at any time by the same token the arse could fall out of the thing just as quickly. So that's about it. It looks alot more complicated than it actually is due to me droning on a bit. The bookie for this will be Stan James with whom I have £200 set aside but have my fingers crossed that he does not get his grubby little hands on all of it. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 12, 2008 Author Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Risky to start off with but the high odds should hopefully make it easier to recoup the stake should it lose with three shorter priced games. Round One Start Balance: £100.00 Bet 01 Zenit St Petersburg v Marseille, Zenit St Petersburg @6/5 £8.33 End Balance £91.67 ------------------------ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Good luck mate! Nice to see my work being utilised by somebody else, and adding their own 'twist' to it - nice to see it :) Will be following this one with interest, for obvious reasons! MT :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 12, 2008 Author Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Thanks guys for the good wishes- I'll need them if past GHs are anything to go by. I like the system Madness uses so I just hope I can do it some justice here. Round One Start Balance: £110.00 Bet 02 Everton v Fiorentina, Everton @10/11 £12.10 End Balance £97.90 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: +£10.00 Zenit St Petersburg 2:0 Marseille, Zenit St Petersburg @6/5 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £8.33 Return: £18.33 Profit: +£10.00 Yield: +120.0% Bets: 1 Won: 1 Lost: 0 Void: 0 Win%: 100.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £121.00 Bet 03 Bremen v Rangers, Over 2.5 Goals @4/6 £18.15 End Balance £102.85 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss:+£11.00 Everton 2:0 Fiorentina, Everton @10/11 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £20.43 Return: £41.43 Profit: +£21.00 Yield: +102.8% Bets: 2 Won: 2 Lost: 0 Void: 0 Win%: 100.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 14, 2008 Author Share Posted March 14, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter I made a couple of changes to the first post. I'll now be looking to increase by balance 3-fold rather than 4-fold. Due to this I have changed the first recoup from 3 bets to 2 bets. So after the last bet lost I will be trying to win the stake back in 2 bets rather than the original 3. If this bet loses then I will have 2 stakes to recoup over 3 bets, etc. It's a bit riskier but we'll see how it goes. Round One Start Balance: £102.85 Bet 04 Gloria Bistrita v Dinamo Bucharest, Dinamo Bucharest @5/6 £10.89 End Balance £91.96 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£18.15 Bremen 1:0 Rangers, Over 2.5 Goals @4/6 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £38.58 Return: £41.43 Profit: +£2.85 Yield: +7.4% Bets: 3 Won: 2 Lost: 0 Void: 1 Win%: 66.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 14, 2008 Author Share Posted March 14, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Very quickly I'm making an arse of it again and undoing any good work at the start but I'll push on. Round One Start Balance: £91.96 Bet 05 Kickers Offenbach v Carl Zeiss Jena, Over 2.5 Goals @4/5 £12.10 End Balance £79.86 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£10.89 Gloria Bistrita 1:1 Dinamo Bucharest, Dinamo Bucharest @5/6 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £49.47 Return: £41.43 Profit: -£8.04 Yield: -16.3% Bets: 4 Won: 2 Lost: 0 Void: 2 Win%: 50.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 14, 2008 Author Share Posted March 14, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £101.46 Bet 06 Waalwijk v AGOVV, Over 3 Goals @10/11 £10.65 End Balance £90.99 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: +£9.68 Kickers Offenbach 2:1 Carl Zeiss Jena, Over 2.5 Goals @4/5 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £61.57 Return: £63.21 Profit: +£1.64Yield: +2.7% Bets: 5 Won: 3 Lost: 0 Void: 2 Win%: 60.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 15, 2008 Author Share Posted March 15, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £90.99 Bet 07 Aberdeen v Gretna, Over 3 Goals @6/4 £6.67 End Balance £84.32 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£10.65 Waalwijk 3:0 AGOVV, Over 3 Goals @10/11 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £72.22 Return: £63.21 Profit: -£9.01 Yield: -12.5% Bets: 6 Won: 3 Lost: 0 Void: 3 Win%: 50.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 15, 2008 Author Share Posted March 15, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter A little bit of furstrating deja vu there. Paid the price for being greedy. Round One Start Balance: £84.32 Bet 08 Arsenal v Middlesbrough, Over 2.5 Goals @8/11 £12.61 End Balance £71.72 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£6.67 Aberdeen 3:0 Gretna, Over 3 Goals @6/4 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £78.89 Return: £63.21 Profit: -£15.68 Yield: -19.9% Bets: 7 Won: 3 Lost: 0 Void: 4 Win%: 42.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter And again. All not going well now so back to normal. I can only afford a couple more losing bets before having to start over. Round One Start Balance: £71.72 Bet 09 NEC Nijmegen v Sparta Rotterdam, NEC Nijmegen @4/6 £14.79 End Balance £56.93 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£12.61 Arsenal 1:1 Middlesbrough, Over 2.5 Goals @8/11 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £91.50 Return: £63.21 Profit: -£28.28 Yield: -30.9% Bets: 8 Won: 3 Lost: 0 Void: 5 Win%: 37.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £81.57 Bet 10 Bordeaux v Strasbourg, Bordeaux @1/2 £19.71 End Balance £61.86 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: +£9.86 NEC Nijmegen 4:2 Sparta Rotterdam, NEC Nijmegen @4/6 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £106.28 Return: £87.86 Profit: -£18.43 Yield: -17.3% Bets: 9 Won: 4 Lost: 0 Void: 5 Win%: 44.4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £91.43 Bet 11 River Plate v Racing Club, River Plate @1/2 £19.71 End Balance £71.72 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: +£9.86 Bordeaux 3:0 Strasbourg, Bordeaux @1/2 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £126.00 Return: £117.43 Profit: -£8.57 Yield: -6.8% Bets: 10 Won: 5 Lost: 0 Void: 5 Win%: 50.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 17, 2008 Author Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Just getting back and then fall flat again. One attempt tonight. With the price being bare minimum that was the most I could lose there- and I did. It managed to wipe out the 2 winners I had earlier in the day. That's the way it goes. Round One Start Balance: £71.72 Bet 12 Gueugnon v Nantes, Nantes @7/10 £17.60 End Balance £54.11 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£19.71 River Plate 0:0 Racing Club, River Plate @1/2 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £145.71 Return: £117.43 Profit: -£28.28 Yield: -19.4% Bets: 11 Won: 5 Lost: 0 Void: 6 Win%: 45.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Bad betting and a little bad luck mean I am about 2-3 bets, including this one, away from failing at the first attempt. It's pretty much as I expected. All goes well till you do it live as I'm sure alot of people have experienced. Round One Start Balance: £54.11 Bet 13 PSG v Bastia, Psg @7/10 £19.11 End Balance £35.00 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£17.60 Gueugnon 1:1 Nantes, Nantes @7/10 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £163.31 Return: £117.43 Profit: -£45.89 Yield: -28.1% Bets: 12 Won: 5 Lost: 0 Void: 7 Win%: 41.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £67.49 Bet 14 Dumbarton v Stenhousemuir, Stenhousemuir @11/8 £9.73 End Balance £57.76 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: +£13.38 PSG 2:1 Bastia, Psg @7/10 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £182.42 Return: £149.91 Profit: -£32.51 Yield: -17.8% Bets: 13 Won: 6 Lost: 0 Void: 7 Win%: 46.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Good luck, hope you have some luck at last. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Good luck' date=' hope you have some luck at last. :ok[/quote'] Cheers Aldric. I've made a bit of a hash of things but hopefully one of the attempts will go OK. My selections so far just haven't been good enough so I'm not doing the system justice. Over time though I'll hopefully get it right. :ok Round One Start Balance: £57.76 Bet 15 Larissa v Thrasivoulos, Over 2.5 Goals @4/5 £15.81 End Balance £41.95 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£9.73 Dumbarton 1:0 Stenhousemuir, Stenhousemuir @11/8 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £192.15 Return: £149.91 Profit: -£42.24 Yield: -22.0% Bets: 14 Won: 6 Lost: 0 Void: 8 Win%: 42.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £70.41 Bet 16 Bordeaux v Lille, Bordeaux @4/5 £15.81 End Balance £54.60 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: +£12.65 Larissa 1:3 Thrasivoulos, Over 2.5 Goals @4/5 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £207.96 Return: £178.37 Profit: -£29.59 Yield: -14.2% Bets: 15 Won: 7 Lost: 0 Void: 8 Win%: 46.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £54.60 Bet 17 PSV v Ajax, Psv @6/5 £11.07 End Balance £43.53 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss:-£15.81 Bordeaux 0:0 Lille, Bordeaux @4/5 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £223.77 Return: £178.37 Profit: -£45.40 Yield: -20.3% Bets: 16 Won: 7 Lost: 0 Void: 9 Win%: 43.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 20, 2008 Author Share Posted March 20, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Not doing too well here on this first attempt. I've been getting carried away taking on more bets than I should. On the next attempt I think I better restrict it to 1 bet per day on a week day and about 3 per day at the weekend. Possibly 2 bets left in this if they aere both losers. Round One Start Balance: £43.53 Bet 18 Ut Arad v Universitat Craiova, Ut Arad (0) @8/11 £17.75 End Balance £25.78 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£11.07 PSV 0:0 Ajax, Psv @6/5 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £234.84 Return: £178.37 Profit: -£56.47 Yield: -24.0% Bets: 17 Won: 7 Lost: 0 Void: 10 Win%: 41.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 20, 2008 Author Share Posted March 20, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter That's it if this one fails and it wouldn't surprise me if it did. With less than 40% win ratio I can expect no less- this is the most important stat here. To get back to where I was I would need 7 winners in a row which normally would be a big ask but with the current form an improbability. Still there is always the next round. Round One Start Balance: £25.78 Bet 19 Viborg v Nordsjaelland, Over 2.5 Goals @8/13 £22.10 End Balance £3.68 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£17.75 Ut Arad 0:1 Universitat Craiova, Ut Arad (0) @8/11 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £252.59 Return: £178.37 Profit: -£74.22 Yield: -29.4% Bets: 18 Won: 7 Lost: 0 Void: 11 Win%: 38.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 20, 2008 Author Share Posted March 20, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £39.38 Bet 20 Augsburg v Paderborn, Augsburg @4/6 £20.40 End Balance £18.98 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: +£13.60 Viborg 2:3 Nordsjaelland, Over 2.5 Goals @8/13 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £274.69 Return: £214.08 Profit: -£60.62 Yield: -22.1% Bets: 19 Won: 8 Lost: 0 Void: 11 Win%: 42.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 20, 2008 Author Share Posted March 20, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter For the second time in a day one last throw of the dice. Just not good enought I'm afraid so I'll have to be more vigilant with the next attempt. Only twice have I had back to back winners which is a bit of a joke. Round One Start Balance: £18.98 Bet 21 Augsburg v Paderborn, Augsburg @4/6 £16.03 End Balance £2.95 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£20.40 Augsburg 0:1 Paderborn, Augsburg @4/6 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £295.10 Return: £214.08 Profit: -£81.02 Yield: -27.5% Bets: 20 Won: 8 Lost: 0 Void: 12 Win%: 40.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 21, 2008 Author Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter I made a mistake again last night which will make me look like I'm at it. I took over 2.5 goals in the Barca match but forget to edit the betline when I posted- not the first time. So you'll just have to take my word for it I'm afraid. Always looks dodgy when you get a winner but after getting it I don't want to go back to last bet scenario. Here though is a print screen on the last bets from Stan James: I'll post my next bet later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 21, 2008 Author Share Posted March 21, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Round One Start Balance: £33.55 Bet 22 MK Dons Fc v Peterborough, Over 2.5 Goals @EVS £14.57 End Balance £18.98 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: +£14.57 Valencia 3:2 Barcelona, over 2.5 goals @10/11 ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £311.13 Return: £244.68 Profit: -£66.45 Yield: -21.4% Bets: 21 Won: 9 Lost: 0 Void: 12 Win%: 42.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 22, 2008 Author Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter Back to the last bet again for a 3rd time. I did want to take just the straight win here @8/11 but didn't have enough cash to do it. That is when you know the end is nigh. So I've handicapped it. Round One Start Balance: £18.98 Bet 23 Aberdeen v St Mirren, Aberdeen -3/4ah @83/100 £17.56 End Balance £1.42 ------------------------ Last Bet Profit/Loss: -£14.57 MK Dons Fc 1:1 Peterborough, Over 2.5 Goals @EVS ------------------------ Statistics- Round 1 Outlay: £100.00 Stake: £325.70 Return: £244.68 Profit: -£81.02 Yield: -24.9% Bets: 22 Won: 9 Lost: 0 Void: 13 Win%: 40.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 22, 2008 Author Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter That's the first attempt over with. Very disappointing but I've got another 4 attempts to go. Hopefully one of those will come off. Very bad selections with 14 losers from 23 bets. That is something I'll need to improve on. I'll be back after with the second attempt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted March 22, 2008 Author Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Ten Percenter I've reposted the first bet again. I completely forgot my own strategy and luckily hadn't placed the bet yet- but have now. Since I lost the last attempt with £100 the start balance for this attempt is now £50- rather than the £100 I posted earlier. The objective this round is to finish with a balance of £200. Also I don't have a minimum of 5 attempts in all but 4 attempts. So if this attempt loses then the subsequent 2 will start at £25 each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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