robkor Posted October 2, 2008 Author Share Posted October 2, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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goalies_are_different Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi, Robkor! I have been following your prediction model thread for quite a while and it's hell of a good piece of work and effort. I would like to ask you some questions about it as I am also developing my power rating. Can you contact me at [email protected]? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi G.A.D! Nice to hear that someone is following this thread... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted November 25, 2008 Author Share Posted November 25, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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noolnool Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Great to see that you're still updating this thread, Robkor! ...and with good results too. Keep it up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Noolnool, nice to hear from you. I thought that nobody follows this thread, so at least some reply is very much apreciated. I'll continue updating the thread until the end of the season, then I'll decide if it's "worth" keeping up... There are lots of midweek matches that I miss, because I have very little time for all this ;) ... apologies for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted January 24, 2009 Author Share Posted January 24, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KarlUK Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi Robkor, Firstly id like to thank you for sharing your system and ideas. I am interested in sports betting systems and like very much your analytical approach. I wanted to ask are all your calculations and analysis performed using just excel and the "football-data" files? I am new to excel but have some experience in programming and databases. If I wanted to learn to use excel to perform this type of analysis do you recommend any books, online courses etc that I could study? Thanks in advance. Regards Karl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi KarlUK, Yes, all my calculations are performed just using Excel. I import the football data files manually each week. This could be programmed in Visual Basic to load automatically from the site, but I didn't have time to do that yet...probably I should have :/ There are any special functions that I use here...probably HLOOKUP is the most important one. I think I learnt how to use it when checking Mr.Onemore's post regarding least sqares approximation method (search for that xls. file in this forum). This should be a good start to get familiar with it. Another function that is important is the LINEST function, which I use for regression analyses...it automatically updates the regression coefficients as new data is entered. The maths behind the model is quite simple. Perhaps you should also learn how to use the Solver Add on in case you are looking for some sort of optimisation method. Thanks for your interest and feel free to ask more if you have some specific problems. R. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soeyaza Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi robkor, I'm interested in your thread too. Glad to hear that you'll continue it till the end of the season. Thank you for your persistence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted March 28, 2009 Author Share Posted March 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma3x Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Great work mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted April 2, 2009 Author Share Posted April 2, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Tnx ma3x :))) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpkingma Posted April 6, 2009 Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Robkor, you seem to have a great, profitable system. I wish you the best of luck with it. I hope you could give me some answers on my following questions... - Do you calculate different power ratings per [goals/shots/corners/etc.], or do you combine each of these values into one single rating? - When updating the power rating, is the opponents' strength taken into account (as with ELO rating updates)? - Does calculating separate home/away ratings realy help? Do you calculate two ratings, or do you estimate the 'home advantage' per team? Also... - what is the average 'house' of your bookmaker combination? With 'house', I mean the [1/odds(H)+1/odds(D)+1/odds(A)-100%] figure. - How did you gather the historic odds of your bookmakers? They're not included with the footballdata.co.uk dataset, so I wonder where you got them from. - How many percent of your money do you stake in each match? 1/50th of the total bank seems to be reasonable. - How are you planning to use your system? Will you just use it for yourself, or will you start a business, maybe some kind of subscription service? 5% yield will quadriple your money each year... I've also developed a system, but it uses ELO + logistic regression and performance is calculated with 10-fold crossvalidation on 8 major leagues. My 6-year backtesting result (20.000 matches) is around 5% yield when used with Bet365 odds, but the first few years were hardly profitable since the Bet365's house was around 7%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted April 6, 2009 Author Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi dpkingma! 1. I tried both...different and combined power ratings (both are profitable) 2. Yes, I use a sort of ELO rating updates, taking strength of oposition into account 3. I believe, that H/A ratings do not help very much, but I have them split...I'd go for a constant home advantage. 4. The average house of the bookmaker at the testing period was about 7%, but now I use Oddschecker for odds, meaning very little or no margin. 5. The odds are from footballdata.co.uk...they ARE included in their dataset! 6. My staking is as it is shown on my tables...I don't stake percentage of my bank...it varies only depending on the value of each bet, but on average it should be about 1.0 unit (compare my total stake and bets) 7. I don't know :))) Congratulations on your system too. Can I ask which variables do you take into account? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpkingma Posted April 6, 2009 Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Robkor, I use goals, shots (on target) and corners. From these, a single rating update is calculated for each team. I never tried separate H/A ratings, but the system does calculate seperate offense/defense ratings. These don't increase accuracy for predicting H/A win, but I'm going to test whether it could help predict over/under 2.5 goals. Also, I'm still looking into predicting draws. (Not to bet on draws, but to increase predictive accuracy on home/away wins.) Seperate offense/defense ratings don't help to predict draws, unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted May 9, 2009 Author Share Posted May 9, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FidoDido Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi Robkor I'm new to football betting, so please forgive my ignorance. When you give the results tables, at the very bottom is a table called "Favs-1x2 stats". The yield of 25.8% is fantastic ....... How does that table work and how / where would I know what to bet on ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted May 12, 2009 Author Share Posted May 12, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi FidoDido, What to bet on? The first 3 columns are the stakes on 1X2...take for example Man Utd v Man City from my previous post ...there I'd stake 1.03Units on Man [email protected]e 3 coulmns are labeled "All stakes". Then in the second 3 columns I'm using cutoffs to highlight those bets with more value...these are called Optimal stakes and should give the most yield, which unfortunately is not the case at the moment. The Man Utd v Man City match passed the cutoff criteria, so I'd bet 1.03on Man Utd also here. Then I have also the "Favourites stakes" where I take bets from first three columns, but only if odds available are below 2.65 on 1&2 and below 4.30 on X. Also here I'd bet on Man Utd because the odds available are under 2.65. The 25.8% yield on favourites stats is on the aways, but only 40.79Units were staked there, which makes approximately 40bets...the sample size is far to small to conclude anything from there. I think that you have to look at the overall figures where the sample size is more robust with 2162bets and 3.4% yield, hopefully that's the reality. I'm glad that except EL2, all other leagues show profits. I'd also like to mention the the model performs poorely on the draws so I'd avoid these bets. cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FidoDido Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi Robkor Thanks for taking the time and trouble to answer my questions. Your system certainly looks worth continuing. I wish you all the very best with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soeyaza Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi Robkor Thanks for your work. But I can't read your table ahead of time. How can I do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted May 15, 2009 Author Share Posted May 15, 2009 Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Soeyaza, could you be a little more specific? :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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