01087924 Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Description: Just to set the record straight, I actually am not a Liverpool hater, and am in fact a big fan. However, i believe that Liverpool are generally overrated by the bookie pricemakers and have therefore decided to devise a system based on a solid stake lay of Liverpool for every match until the end of the season. With Liverpool generally odds on for most of their matches i believe that this system should guarantee profit towards the end of the season. NOTE: Although I shall be following this system because it has not been paper trailed i suggest that you think carfully before you wish to follow this system. Perhaps you may wish to leave it for a month or two to judge how the system is holding up. System: Lay Liverpool for 5pts for every Premiership, F.A. Cup, and Champions League match, with a starting bank of 100pts. Results: Starting bank: 100pts Current bank: 100pts Total staked: 0pts Number of bets: 0 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 0% Yield: 0% Profit (or Loss): +0pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted December 28, 2007 Author Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Bet 1 30/12/07 Manchester City vs. Liverpool Lay Liverpool for 5pts @ 2.14 on Betfair. Bet Exposure: 5.70pts Thus: If Liverpool win, Profit = -5.70pts If Liverpool do not win, Profit = +4.75pts (including Betfair Commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted December 29, 2007 Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: The Lay Liverpool System A good site for this is soccervista. They have stats to show P/L if you always backed a team to lose/draw/win. They also do teams records as fav or underdogs. Suprisingly enough Liverpool have not been underdogs in any league match this season using their odds!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted December 29, 2007 Author Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Thanks WorkingForTheEnemy. Since Liverpool have not won 8 of their 18 league games, and since I presume that Liverpool would have been very odds-on for a number of the games they won at home (Derby, Fulham and Portsmouth springs to mind), I think this would have proven successful so far this season in the league. And that's not withstanding the Cups, quite mediocre in the Champions League so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted December 31, 2007 Author Share Posted December 31, 2007 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Match 1: Man City 0-0 Liverpool Match Profit/Loss: +4.75pts Results: Starting bank: 100pts Current bank: 104.75pts Total staked: 5.70pts Number of bets: 1 Winning bets: 1 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 100% Yield: 83.33% Profit (or Loss): +4.75pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted December 31, 2007 Author Share Posted December 31, 2007 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Bet 2 02/01/08 Liverpool v Wigan Athletic Lay Liverpool for 5pts @ 1.25 on Betfair. Bet Exposure: 1.25pts Thus: If Liverpool win, Profit = -1.25pts If Liverpool do not win, Profit = +4.75pts (including Betfair Commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phantomDude Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Well, congrats on the good start! I dunno though, using an estimate of prices for laying Liverpool, if I layed them for every Premiership match they played between since the 2000-2001 season, I'd have a hefty loss (around 16% by my estimates). If I bet on Liverpool to win every match since the 2000-2001 season (and I do have accurate odds for the price on Liverpool to win in these matches) , assuming level stakes: I'd lose -6.14 on the 141 home matches (loss of -4.35% on stakes) I'd lose -10.65 on the 141 away matches (loss of -7.55% on stakes) Overall loss: -16.79 on 282 matches, which is a loss of -5.9 % on stakes. Considering most bookies operate an overround of around 9% on their books, based on these figures you could argue that the bookies are slightly too generous in terms of the odds that they offer on Liverpool in the Premiership (because betting on Liverpool blindly in every match will offer you returns that beat the overround). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Well, congrats on the good start! I dunno though, using an estimate of prices for laying Liverpool, if I layed them for every Premiership match they played between since the 2000-2001 season, I'd have a hefty loss (around 16% by my estimates). If I bet on Liverpool to win every match since the 2000-2001 season (and I do have accurate odds for the price on Liverpool to win in these matches) , assuming level stakes: I'd lose -6.14 on the 141 home matches (loss of -4.35% on stakes) I'd lose -10.65 on the 141 away matches (loss of -7.55% on stakes) Overall loss: -16.79 on 282 matches, which is a loss of -5.9 % on stakes. Considering most bookies operate an overround of around 9% on their books, based on these figures you could argue that the bookies are slightly too generous in terms of the odds that they offer on Liverpool in the Premiership (because betting on Liverpool blindly in every match will offer you returns that beat the overround). Interesting facts, but frankly anyone that is working with a bookie that has a 9% overround these days must be crazy. The average Overround on a Betfair market is close to 1%, plus you have 5% com on winnings, much better value I do agree though that there is no prospect of this system making money long term though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted January 5, 2008 Author Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Match 2: Liverpool 1-1 Wigan Match Profit/Loss: +4.75pts Results: Starting bank: 100pts Current bank: 109.50pts Total staked: 6.95pts Number of bets: 2 Winning bets: 2 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 100% Yield: 136.69% Profit (or Loss): +9.50pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted January 5, 2008 Author Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Bet 3 05/01/08 Luton v Liverpool Lay Liverpool for 5pts @ 1.36 on Betfair. Bet Exposure: 1.80pts Thus: If Liverpool win, Profit = -1.80pts If Liverpool do not win, Profit = +4.75pts (including Betfair Commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted January 6, 2008 Author Share Posted January 6, 2008 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Bet 3: Luton 1-1 Liverpool Bet Profit/Loss: +4.75pts Results: Starting bank: 100pts Current bank: 114.25pts Total staked: 8.75pts Number of bets: 3 Winning bets: 3 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 100% Yield: 163.86% Profit (or Loss): +14.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Great stuff! did you lay them at Boro too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted January 16, 2008 Author Share Posted January 16, 2008 Re: The Lay Liverpool System Yes i layed them at boro but unfortunately laid them last night and they won 5-0, although the exposure was pretty small. I don't always have the time to put up the selections and results on up here but they're pretty obvious. :) Maybe this system will balance out over a period of time but i feel that the bookies are still being far to stingy with Liverpools prices and shall continue to lay them for as long as that trend continues. Good luck all with your betting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 26, 2008 Share Posted January 26, 2008 Re: The Lay Liverpool System have you layed the reds against havant and waterlooville???!!! liverpool were 1.02 to win on betfair at kickoff. 25 mins gone and it's 0-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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