Southwell 12/12

[jtw1]

A pretty poor race indeed but something has to win and i think that could be - MARSAM. Last ran on the AW [ only run so far on AW ] when last of 13 off a mark of 76 , however that was a CLASS 4 event [ class 5 on Weds] over what was probably an inadequate 10f [ 12f on Weds] and has dropped to 69. However it's the Jockey/course stats that appeal - Trainer QUINLAN has had 8 winners from 33 runners at the TRACK , but take out the 2y-olds and that stat rises to 8 from 28 [around 30%] When E AHERN rides for the stable he has won 4 from 15 times , again if we take out the 2y-olds the figure is 3 from 10 [ again around the 30% mark]. Those stats are over the past 5 seasons. It won LTO over the sticks at PLUMPTON on NOV 25th so should be fit and although the stable has not had a winner in the past fortnight 2 of the 3 runners on the AW were not beaten by any great distance. Of the opposition KYLKENNY will be 13 on JAN 1st , DRIZZI has only won at CLASS 6 level and it's 2 places on the AW were at WOLVES , POCKET TOO should proably need further and has only won at Class 6 level [ 0/8 at Class 5] , IMMINENT VICTORY won a Class 6 on different surface at KEMPTON , BLUBERRY HILL has only won at Class 7 level 0/14 at CL 6 and 0/2 at CL5. We will have to see if the surface will suit the selection , but if it does it must have a good chance :hope

[bowles10]

Re: Southwell 12/12 2.30 Only 2 horses in this race have any ability Dart & Grizebeck. Dart is 4/9 Grizebeck is 9/2 (1.47 to place) 10 win on Dart is 4.50 profit 10 on s/fc is prob 25 profit 10 place on Grizebeck is 4.70 profit that totals 30 stake for estimated 34 profit or is it safer to stick 30 on Dart @ 1.45 for 13.50 profit. just trying to see if there is any value in staking this race. The other horses are too high to lay so thats not an option.