alense Posted December 8, 2007 Share Posted December 8, 2007 Developed a power rating system for the premiership, la liga and serie A at the start of the season. So far results have been Prem: 31-11-3 La Liga: 4-4 Serie A: 12-12-5 Will explain the whole system during the week when I have more time. Plays are usually 1-2 units, very rarely 3 units. 1 unit is 1% of bankroll. Plays for today are: Prem Liverpool o Reading 1unit 1.68 Everton -1 o Fulham 2units 2.12 Newcastle o Birmingham 1unit 1.90 La Liga: Osasuna +0 o Valencia 1unit 2.05 Seire A: Palermo +0 o Fiorentina 2units 1.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 9, 2007 Author Share Posted December 9, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Sunday plays: Serie A: Udinese o Sampdoria 2units 2.28 Siena +0.5 o Genoa 1unit 2.04 Empoli o Cagliari 2units 2.14 La Liga: Almeria o Valladolid 1unit 2.43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 11, 2007 Author Share Posted December 11, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System For the sake of record keeping the bankroll will be a 1000 points and as stated above 1 unit will be 1% of bankroll. As we increase the bank by 100 points the 1% will be re-calculated, same will happen if bankroll decreases. Record after week 1: Prem: 2-1 +17.70 Serie A: 4-0 +66 La Liga: 1-0-1 +14.30 Total: 7-1-1 +98 New Bankroll: 1098 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted December 11, 2007 Share Posted December 11, 2007 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 11, 2007 Share Posted December 11, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Hi alense and :welcome to The Punters Lounge. Good start for your system. Any more information on how you select your bets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 11, 2007 Author Share Posted December 11, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Hi guys. I try and find value between the odds offered and the odds that my system creates. I have decided that there are 3 important factors that determine what the odds on a match should be. I will use the Newcastle Birmingham game as an example. 1. Team Value First I assign a number to reflect the value of the squad of players in every team. For example this week Newcastle had a team value of 81.6 while Birmingham's was 65.3. Then I have a number to reflect the value of each manager; Newcastle 14 Birmingham 8. I also have a number that reflects a teams recent historical (last 5 seasons) performance (not sure how useful this is but it has been working so far) ; Newcastle 12 Birmingham 6 So in total Newcastle team value is 107.6 Birmingham team value 79.3 2. Home/Away winning% I have calculated the home and away winning % of every team for each of the last 5 seasons. I have then calculated the season average winning % for each team home and away. Newcastle 53.68 Birmingham 18.42 Then I look at the results of this fixture over the last 5 seasons. For every win a team gets an extra 10. Newcastle have won this fixture 3 times and Birmingham 1 time. Therefore in this section Newcastle have a further 83.68 and Birmingham 28.42 3. Team Form Initially I was using quite a complicated procedure to assign a number to team form. This was too time consuming so I now use a website which uses a similar method to calculate this number. The website is http://www.sfstats.net/index.php Newcastle form 9 Birmingham form 23 Overall Newcastle's rating for this game is 200.28 and Birmingham's is 130.72. The difference is 69.56. I have a table which I created that equates a difference of 69.56 to odds of 1.80 So my fair odds for Newcastle is 1.80 and I was able to get odds of 1.90. If the difference between my odds and the odds offered is between 0.10 - 0.20 then it is a 1unit bet, diff. of 0.20 - 0.30 2units and so on. You would be surprised how often my odds almost are identical to those on offer. I have not gone through everything in detail as I would be here all night, so if there are any questions or comments feel free to respond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLeg Posted December 12, 2007 Share Posted December 12, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System It is not really easy to find value in top leagues. Maybe you could add some lower leagues, e.g. league 1 and 2, conference or championship? Thanks and GL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amdtje Posted December 12, 2007 Share Posted December 12, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Good luck.I shall be monitoring your progress and hope you do well.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 12, 2007 Author Share Posted December 12, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Thanks guys. Hi OLeg, reason i cant use this for lower leagues is because I do not have enough knowledge on the teams to accuratly value the squads and the managers etc. I think you are right and there would be probably a greater advantage however a good knowledge of the league is essential. I will try and get either the Serie A or La Liga plays up tomorrow for the weekend along with the calculations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 14, 2007 Author Share Posted December 14, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Saturday plays: Prem: Middlesbrough o Derby 20pts @ 2.42 Bolton +0.5 o Man City 20.20pts @ 1.99 Aston Villa o Sunderland 10pts @ 2.35 Portsmouth o Tottenham 10pts @ 2.32 Everton +0 o West Ham 10pts @ 2.00 Blackburn o Wigan 20pts @ 2.27 Newcastle +0 o Fulham 10pts @ 2.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 16, 2007 Author Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Sunday plays: Serie A: Siena o Napoli 10pts @ 2.62 Empoli o Genoa 20pts @ 2.44 Roma o Torino 24.80pts @ 1.81 Sampdoria o Fiorentina 10pts @ 2.66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 19, 2007 Author Share Posted December 19, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Record after week 2: Prem: 5-5 +6.3 Serie A: 4-4 +1.2 La Liga: 1-0-1 +14.30 Total: 10-9-1 +21.8 New Bankroll: 1021.8 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 22, 2007 Author Share Posted December 22, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Saturday plays: Prem: Middlesbrough o West Ham 10pts @ 2.38 Reading o Sunderland 10.50pts @ 1.95 Man City +0 o Aston Villa 10pts @ 2.84 Serie A: Parma o Genoa 5pts @ 4.7 La Liga: Almeria o Getafe 10pts @ 2.56 Sevilla o Santander 14.70pts @ 1.68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 23, 2007 Author Share Posted December 23, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Sundays plays: Prem: Chelsea o Blackburn 10pts @ 1.92 Serie A: Inter o Milan 10pts @ 2.54 Napoli o Torino 10pts @ 2.24 La Liga: Betis +0 & +0.5 o Valladolid 10pts @ 2.10 Deportivo o Levante 10pts @ 2.62 Atletico Madrid o Espanyol 10pts @ 2.09 Real Madrid +0 & +0.5 o Barcelona 10pts @ 2.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 24, 2007 Author Share Posted December 24, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Record after week 3: Prem: 7-6-1 +6.3 Serie A: 5-6 +1.6 La Liga: 5-2-1 +38.50 Total: 17-14-2 +46.4 New Bankroll: 1046.4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 29, 2007 Author Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Saturday plays: Prem: Bolton +0 o Sunderland 10pts @ 2.04 Wigan +0 o Aston Villa 10pts @ 2.31 Everton +0 o Arsenal 10pts @ 2.56 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted December 29, 2007 Author Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Record after week 4: Prem: 7-9-1 -23.7 Serie A: 5-6 +1.6 La Liga: 5-2-1 +38.50 Total: 17-17-2 +16.4 New Bankroll: 1016.4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 1, 2008 Author Share Posted January 1, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Tuesday Plays: Prem: Man Utd -2 o Birmingham 10pts @ 2.09 Reading o Portsmouth 10pts @ 2.69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 1, 2008 Author Share Posted January 1, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Wednesday Plays: Prem: Newcastle o Man City 10pts @ 2.29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 11, 2008 Author Share Posted January 11, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Record after week 5: Prem: 7-12-1 -53.7 Serie A: 5-6 +1.6 La Liga: 5-2-1 +38.50 Total: 17-20-2 -13.6 New Bankroll: 986.4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 11, 2008 Author Share Posted January 11, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System La Liga plays: Sevilla o Bilbao 10pts @ 2.54 Recreativo +0.5 o Valladolid 11.20pts @ 1.89 Racing +0 & +0.5 o Osasuna 10pts @ 2.01 Espanyol o Almeria 10pts @ 2.35 Valencia +0.5 o Atletico 11.50pts @ 1.87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 13, 2008 Author Share Posted January 13, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Prem plays: Portsmouth o Sunderland 10pts @ 2.80 Blackburn o Bolton 10pts @ 2.78 Serie A plays: Livorno +0.5 o Torino 10pts @ 2.00 Udinese o Cagliari 10pts @ 2.58 Cant believe the system picked Chelsea, Everton and Wigan yesterday and I forgot to bet them or post. Dont you hate it when that happens! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 14, 2008 Author Share Posted January 14, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Record after week 6: Prem: 8-13-1 -45.9 Serie A: 7-6 +27.4 La Liga: 6-6-1 +5.9 Total: 21-25-2 -12.6 New Bankroll: 987.4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 17, 2008 Author Share Posted January 17, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Prem plays: Chelsea o Birmingham 14.70 @ 1.68 Blackburn o Middlesbrough 13.40pts @ 1.74 Everton o Wigan 10pts @ 2.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 19, 2008 Author Share Posted January 19, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Serie A plays: Genoa o Atalanta 10pts @ 2.46 Fiorentina -1 o Torino 13pts @ 1.76 La Liga plays: Villareal o Valencia 10pts @ 2.40 Getafe +0 o Sevilla 10pts @ 2.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 20, 2008 Author Share Posted January 20, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System La Liga plays: Bilbao +0 & +0.5 o Osasuna 10pts @ 2.09 Valladolid o Espanyol 10pts @ 2.60 Real Madrid +0 o Atletico 11.70pts @ 1.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 20, 2008 Author Share Posted January 20, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Serie A plays: Livorno o Empoli 10pts @ 2.26 Reggina o Cagliari 11.20pts @ 1.89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 21, 2008 Author Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Record after week 7: Prem: 10-14-1 -35.3 Serie A: 10-6-1 +64.6 La Liga: 10-7-1 +46.2 Total: 30-27-3 +75.5 New Bankroll: 1075.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khanfan2 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System Hi Alense and All punter I'm new betting strategy ,I like Alense system. But I don't understand some calculation. If Alense or some punter have a short time please check below my calculation is right or not, Thank you I select spread from Bet365 today Por Tblazers 1 ATL hawks -1 Por Tblazers win% = 600 ATL hawks win% = 472 600 - 472 = 128 128/20 = 6.4 6.4 -1 (the spread) = 5.4 .......... and after that I don't understand calculate ........................ for home court advantage is plus 3 or minus 3 6.4 -3 or 6.4+3 if 6.4 - 3 (home court advantage)=3.4 not play (right or not) if 6.4 + 3(home court advantage)=9.7 not play (right or not) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khanfan2 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Re: Alense's Power Rating System sorry i want to post on Alense NBA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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