AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd)

[Ashtee]

FRIDAY NIGHT
Geelong v Collingwood	MCG (N)	1.28	RacingOdds	4.22	Betfair	101.8%
SATURDAY TWILIGHT
Port Adelaide v Kangaroos	AAMI (T)	1.35	Sportingbet	3.73	Betfair	100.9%

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd) I'd feel awfully hypocritical if I didn't go against Port this week! 19.5 is a lot of points...their form just hasn't been there. Got lucky wins (personel wise) over Geelong and West Coast, other than that close games with everyone except the bottom end. The round 2 game is a bit of a worry, but then again, Hawthorn smacked the 'Roos early on too.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd) I'm on Kangas at 3.79. Port aren't better than them, just that there's other reasons why Port are deservedly favourites. If Kangas just play footy they'll be big show, but if they try to be too clever like the run the through the warm up huddle or like Hawthorn's approach to Harvey, then that sort of thing is ALWAYS karmically disaterous. Another stupid thing they do is hand over momentum by switching to tempo. Their aggressive style generally is a real problem for opponents but they too often let opponents back in with this really stupid tactic (a lot made of the Glass factor in Coll comeback, but really, they threw it away with tempo tactic in that period, trying to nurse their lead to 3/4-time - THIS TACTIC ALWAYS FAILS!). This is what I mean by "other reasons why Port", however Port can be somewhat clumsy themselves when they do tempo. April form means nothing to me, except the four points. North also had their fair share of inexperience in the team that day. Kangas can certainly win this, although I would have liked to see Thomas or Campbell included to further capatalise on the fact that the big forwards create enough contests. It's also perhaps a gamble sticking with three gamer Hansen. Does Ebert play?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd) Port. All year I've thought they've been very over-rated...they won me over a little bit, but I'm still not convinced they are GF material...but more importantly I guess, I'm certainly not convinved they are 3 goals better than the Kangas! Not sure how many weeks it's pertinent to go back...so I'll start at the end... Snuck by West Coast last game at home, with no Kerr...Judd at about 30% playing out of FF, no Hanson, Embly about 60% and then Cousins leaves the game in the 2nd. Basically WC were lucky to be 50% and Port won by just 3 points!! Rd. 22. Beat Freo by 22. Freo had no less than 8 senior players out. (Maybe more) Rd. 21. A good win @ Geelong (5 points). BUT...Ling out, Bartel out and G. Ablett goes down early. Same amount of shots, 3 less I50s. Rd. 20. Beat Hawthorn by 5 points. How good were the Hawks in the end? Rd. 19. Only beat Carlton at home by 23. Rd. 18. PUMPED by Adelaide everywhere except the scoreboard. Still an 8 point loss...and how good were the Crows in the end? DO big wins over Melbourne or Richmond count?...another big win over the Eagles, who were officially at about 25% for that game!! Beaten by the Bulldogs...again, smashed everywhere bar the score-board @ Brisbane, but scrape in for a 7 point win... Basically, the list of teams Port have beaten by more than 18 points is: St. Kilda, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond, Melbourne, Freo...(West Coast.) Not one of those teams finished in the 8. In fact 5 of the bottom 6 teams in there. Yeah, the 'Roos lost by 18 @ Port in rd. 2, but they also lost by 21 to Hawthorn the following week. I don't think Port's defense is good enough to win by big margins...I've seen 'experts' saying how well they played v. the Eagles, but like I said, when your main forward weapon is Judd hobbling out of the goal square things aren't looking great for a start. They won all home games by an av. of 19 points this season...and the last 5 coming into the finals they av'd just 46 I50's per game and 26 shots...Their D isn't good enough to hold the Kangas to less than 24. Oh, and now Ebert hasn't been training with a "bruised knee"...so there goes a fair bit of forward potency of their own. Anyway...I'll be on the Kangaroos +19.5, and won't be at all surprised to see them win. (oh, and if I had to guess, I'd say than Hansen will make way for Green in the final 22 ;) )

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd) TazaD, any thoughts on tonight's game?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd) Tough to go passed Geelong I think saintg1. Just clearly the better team...A bit being made about COllingwood and the MCG, but really, in their last 10 there this year, Collingwood have only beatedn St. Kilda, Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne...and Sydney twice. Mix that up with losses to Richmond, Melbourne, PUMPED by Brisbane and another loss to Geelong... ...not great! Not too sure about the h'cap tho...wouldn't be too surprised to see the 'Pies just sneak in with a loss of 20 or so. The total of 180.5 looks low...But weather not looking the best tonight in Melbourne so I'll be leaving that alone. EDIT: lol at those wacky ol' meteorologists at the BOM....Forecast for Friday evening A few showers mostly clearing by half time. Light to moderate southwesterly winds becoming fresh and gusty with showers. Who says scientists and humour/sport don't mix ;)

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd) Geelong v Collingwood at the MCG

Last time they met (Round 14): Geelong 11.14.80 def. Collingwood 9.10.64 at the MCG. Team changes since last time they met – Geelong - In: N.Ablett, Byrnes, Rooke. Out: Egan, Hawkins, Varcoe. Collingwood - In: Buckley, Clement, Richards, Rusling. Out: Bryan, Iles, Johnson, Licuria. At the MCG this season: Geelong 3-0, Collingwood 11-5. Finals record this decade: Geelong 3-4, Collingwood 6-3.

The build-up to this game has been huge, and feels more like a GF than what next week probably will. The Cats have been superb, and that defeat against Port a month ago was the best thing that could happen to them. Their midfield is unreal and will be impossible to restrict, but their forwards must capitalize, because their forwards can be wasteful in front of goal. The Pies are a hard working unit who always stay in a contest. Their Achilles heel believe it or not is their experienced players. They made some monumental errors last week that cost them goals. They have lacked composure in recent times and Geelong will exploit this. Buckley, Burns, O’Bree, Wakelin and Clement can’t let the team down tonight, because the youngsters can’t be asked upon to fill the breach all the time. The Cats have them covered in every department and will consign the Pies to a 4^th placed finish with a comfortable win and a GF appearance next Saturday. A big doubt on Fraser taking his place in the team tonight. Score Predictor: Geelong 111-88 Collingwood. My Tip: Geelong by 26 points. Bet: Geelong (Margin over 25 points).

Port Adelaide v Kangaroos at AAMI Stadium

Last time they met (Round 2): Port Adelaide 18.14.122 def. Kangaroos 15.14.104 at AAMI. Team changes since the last time they met – Port Adelaide – In: Boak, Motlop, Tredrea, Wakelin, Westhoff. Out: Cockshell, Krakouer, Lonie, Mahoney, White. Kangaroos – In: Gibson, Lower, McMahon, Sansbury, Smith. Out: Brown, Jones, Riggio, Thomas, Trotter. At AAMI this season: Port Adelaide 9-4, Kangaroos 0-1. Finals record this decade: Port Adelaide 7-7, Kangaroos 2-5.

I tend to agree with TazaD regarding Port Adelaide and how good their form has been in the 8 weeks. However, when I line their form up against the Kangaroos over the same period, Port’s form is still superior. Kangaroos have done little since they beat the Hawks in Tasmania. They were belted by Brisbane, comfortably beaten by the Eagles at the Dome, held at arm’s length by Geelong before belting witches hats in the last two rounds then the slaughter in week one to the Cats. Full credit for disposing of the Hawks last week, but it took them all night to it. The Tigers would have beaten the Hawks with the attitude they had last week. The Hawks severely underestimated the Roos and tried to monster them like the Cats did by hitting them hard, but they didn’t have enough big bodies to pull it off. A similar game style will need to be implemented to upset Port. They might be able to hold them for a large portion of the match, but Port should be able to gain control for long enough to advance to the Grand Final and win comfortably.

Score Predictor: Port Adelaide 103-100 Kangaroos. My Tip: Port Adelaide by 51 points. Bet: Port Adelaide (Half-time handicap -9.5) Good luck everyone.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd)

TazaD' date=' any thoughts on tonight's game?[/quote']Too much info Taza. A to the point "HOPE COLLINGWOOD LOSE" should have done. :lol Although it was at Aurora (which tends to suit Port also) but that was another game lost with dumb tempo. Hawthorn were too good that day after Port jumped them early, and were simply cruising to victory until they committed suicide in last few minutes. Another thing to be considered with the type of bet on this game is that Prelim finals are notoriously either close or wind up as blowouts.

Preliminary Final Winning Margins - 1980 - 2006 (40)

1-12pts 13 (32%)

13-24pts 3 (8%)

25-39pts 7 (18%)

40+pts 17 (42%)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd)

Too much info Taza. A to the point "HOPE COLLINGWOOD LOSE" should have done. :lol

I know it's an argument that will never wash with Collingwood supporters/dentist's best friends, but I was very disappointed that Dennis bought into the whole Buckley thing last night. At 3/4 time he said something like, "19 possessions, and most of them are upto his standard of class..."... Well, yeah, unfortunately most of them were upto his standard...which just happens to be no better than 30-40% of the competition. Without looking at a paper yet, or taking specific count last night, how many of his disposals went directly to a team mate?? Definately less than half, and I'd suggest as little as 5 or 6. Sure, he comes out with a nice long, precision pass every now and then, just to get the crowd/commentators gushing...but again, so can (and do) every 3rd player in the AFL. And where was the great man when the game was in the balance, a kick in it with under a minute to play??... ...on the bench. :unsure [As a side note, did anyone notice the play clock?? I'm positive it was down to about 18 seconds when the ball went out of play on the Geelong half forward flank...only for it to jump mysteriously back up to 29!!! :\ ] Oh, and one thing that surely all 'normal' football observers and the great unwashed can agree on, is that we're sick to death of hearing Anthony Rocca mentioned in the same sentence as, "Important player" and "Potent forward line". :rollin 4 kicks...2 of them (both scores) came from free-kicks...and I'm still trying to work out what the hell the first one was for??!! [Another sidey, there would have been a riot if Collingwood had have gotten up late to win, after O'Bree somehow managed to get a goal from THE WORST 50m penalty in the history of the game. Should have had it reversed for even asking for one!!] Oh well, the right side is through. Looks like being one of those notorious Grand Final blow-outs again this year... :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd) Hope we don't have to put up with half a game's worth of commentary mentioning how it could be Archer's last game :wall. I hate all the next season, etc talk. It's a prelim final and that's what guy's like Archer play for anyway. So it would be nice if they don't devalue it and just call the game, thanks. ;) Also hoping North don't concentrate on defense to much, given concerns about Port's style. It's North's aggressive style that should be taken in as a problem for Port. :hope Looks to be a good flood of late money for Port, but that's quite a usual thing anyway. Latish money often seems to be more about chasing a winner, from my experience.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd)

(oh' date=' and if I had to guess, I'd say than Hansen will make way for Green in the final 22 ;) )[/quote']Hansen out, Green in. He's a genius :).

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd) Well...game over 20 minutes into the 2nd when the 'Roos kick 0.6 with the wind. Went into half time with just 2 less shots but the writing was on the wall. :wall