Fontwell 09/09/07

[RussP]

:ok

[-JT-]

Re: Fontwell 09/09/07

Terramique (4.20 Fontwell) has some good stats on his side - Won or placed in last 11 races (8 wins, 3 places). All but two were at Class 4. - Has won 2 out of 2 here at Fontwell - Has won 2 out of 2 at todays distance - Has won 7 out of 8 (placed in the other) on good to firm ground - Has won 2 out of 2 when running in September - Has won 7 out of 10 when ridden by todays jockey Marcus Foley (placed in other 3) - Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 25% strike rate at this course - Jockey Marcus Foley has a 20% strike rate here too - Trainer/jockey combination had a 30% strike rate last season and are starting this season in same vein (3 wins from 6 runs) Looks worth a flutter to me at around 6/4 last time I looked :hope

[Haitch]

Re: Fontwell 09/09/07 15:40 - Monty's Island (16/1) 2m 6f Cls 4 This horse has been around the block a few times but is currently running as well as ever at the ripe old age of 10. Encouraging run lto leaves room for optimism that his fist win is just around the corner. Another thing to note is that twice in recent outings he has been the subject of reasonable gambles which show that someone out there thinks he is ready to land the spoils. Haitch

[Haitch]

Re: Fontwell 09/09/07

Terramique (4.20 Fontwell) has some good stats on his side - Won or placed in last 11 races (8 wins, 3 places). All but two were at Class 4. - Has won 2 out of 2 here at Fontwell - Has won 2 out of 2 at todays distance - Has won 7 out of 8 (placed in the other) on good to firm ground - Has won 2 out of 2 when running in September - Has won 7 out of 10 when ridden by todays jockey Marcus Foley (placed in other 3) - Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 25% strike rate at this course - Jockey Marcus Foley has a 20% strike rate here too - Trainer/jockey combination had a 30% strike rate last season and are starting this season in same vein (3 wins from 6 runs) Looks worth a flutter to me at around 6/4 last time I looked :hope

Nice stats. It does seem strange why Henderson does not step him up into some real decent company. Has never been entered in anything better than Class 4 where he has won 6 out of the 9 times! Also does not seem to matter whether it is a hurdle or a chase! GL with this.

[RussP]

Re: Fontwell 09/09/07 4.20 Fontwell 14 face the starter for this Class 4 handicap hurdle, over an extended 2m6f. We have a very warm fav in Terramarique, who admittedly will be hard to beat, so let's find some EW value with: Mistified (16/1 BlueSq) - This horse is race fit having been keep going through the summer, and it has been running particularly well. Has a nice racing weight of 11-1 and is off a decent mark of 96, despite it being 6lb above its last winning mark. Goes well here with 2 course wins from just 5 attempts, and was only beaten 4L here lto. The key to this horse though is that it is very consistent, especially when encountering ground that is GF or better. It's tries on that ground since coming over the waters from Ireland read.. 4th of 14 (beaten 4L) 1st of 9 (won a hd) 1st of 14 (won 2.5L) 3rd of 15 (beaten 4L) 4th of 12 (beaten 7L) 6th of 10 (beaten 54L) - ignore that run! 3rd of 14 (beaten 1.5L) 3rd of 11 (beaten 11.5L) 3rd of 9 (beaten 6L) With a bit of improvement and with Andrew Thornton on board, 16/1 could look a very big price come 4.30pm. 5.20 Fontwell 12 runners in this Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m2f, with the bookies going 4/1 the field so an open event. We will look at a big priced horse in: Will The Till (20/1 BetDirect) - Evan Williams does particularly well with his summer jumpers and this is another that will be seen to better effect on better ground. 2 decent 4th placed efforts in 2 of its last 3 starts, with a disappointing run in between over a trip too far on unsuitably soft ground. Previous to that was 2nd in Class 3 handicap on todays GF ground, this going today could bring about further improvement. Plugged on well lto when the unfancied 1 of 2 stable runners. Should appreciate the trip today, and with expected improvement from this lightly raced type, 20/1 looks a massive price.