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AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th)

Ashtee
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TazaD

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) I had to laugh at the poll in the Sun yesterday that askedwho would you have kick a goal from 50 for your life... ...Fev, Lloyd, Lucas...all good...4th on the list A. Rocca. Now, I'm not sure if this says more about what people know about football, or it's just that Collingwood supporters are the only ones bored/stoopid/inane enough to answer a boring/stoopid/inane newspaper poll?? Let's hope it's the former hey, at least we should get some juicy lines through the finals!! Iffy on the Kangas +...wanted a few more points...but still very much in the picture. Crows are a definate.

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Yeah, their the only ones who ring up. I'd have Nick Davis, although not sure - don't see him at 50 much. One from left field - Westhoff, if I knew he does get the distance. Actually, I think I'd choose Richo. The worry would kill me too much if it's Fev, Lloyd. Richo usually (well, very occasionally) slots those.

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Reckon I will be staying clear this week... Just don't trust Port enough...despite nagging doubts telling me I should! ...but only 2 wins in their last 5 by more than 5 points...both at home to Carton and a 1/2 strength Freo...and only then wins by 23 and 32. West Coast keep doing what they need to...big/important injury list tho... ...Brogan for Port in some doubt too I believe?? Just not sure I can trust either defense to hold up when it counts... I've been thinking Adelaide all week...but now not so sure. It was only 6 weeks ago they lost at the Dome to Essendon. One noticable thing over the last 5 tho is the respective D's...Crows back to some of their best form, allowing a shot every 2.31 entry...Hawthorn @ 1.89...and 4 of their last 7 games have been 1.79 or worse. Just seems very tough to trust the Crows forwardline to win a game tho. Of course the one major reason I think the Crows will win is their history with Hawthorn. Won last 4 by av. 50 ppg, and won 6 of last 7...only loss by 5 points. Much like Sydney, the Crows will play a lock-down man on man style that Hawthorn just can't seem to break. I do think the Crows get up here, but couldn't take the -7.5 and think the 1.60 is about right. Tempted by Collingwood +6.5.... Last 5 games their midfield has been good (+6 I50's), but their backline has fallen away badly (1.85 compared to 2.00 for the season)... ...but again, can Sydney take advantage away from the SCG? Away from home this season they have av'd just 45 I50's and scored at 2.03...for about 22 shots per game. Enough to be favs in a final at the MCG? BUT, small wins over Richmond and Carlton, and 2 losses in their last 5...the one saving grace of course is their 25 point win @ Sydney. Pies won last 3 meetings, and 4 of last 6, have NOT lost one by more than 6 points. Ignore the Swans win last week...against their bunnies and at their fav ground... ...not sure. Just..not sure!! Collingwood or nothing... :(

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Ashtee

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th)

Tempted by Collingwood +6.5.... Last 5 games their midfield has been good (+6 I50's), but their backline has fallen away badly (1.85 compared to 2.00 for the season)... ...but again, can Sydney take advantage away from the SCG? Away from home this season they have av'd just 45 I50's and scored at 2.03...for about 22 shots per game. Enough to be favs in a final at the MCG? BUT, small wins over Richmond and Carlton, and 2 losses in their last 5...the one saving grace of course is their 25 point win @ Sydney. Pies won last 3 meetings, and 4 of last 6, have NOT lost one by more than 6 points. Ignore the Swans win last week...against their bunnies and at their fav ground... ...not sure. Just..not sure!! Collingwood or nothing... :(
Do it Taza!.They're comparatively stonger than both times they beat Sydney. I'm not worried about Collingwood's form. Didn't seem to be that urgent against a very good Crows IMO. A flat spot was due and that form coincided with Pendlebury missing, who is a real winning key to them IMO. Carlton were playing well at the time as well Richmond, and Melbourne was all about motivating factors after Bell went down. As you said, throw last week's form out for Sydney who may have looked sharp but against a side that TOTALLY choked. Can't see the point of stuffing around with 6.5 @ 1.91 though, when 2.16 or so is available on the nose. If confident they're good enough to get that close it's seems lower percentage play to me.
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BURNTUA CRISP

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Port Adelaide v West Coast at AAMI Stadium

Last time they met (Round 15): Port Adelaide 22.21.153 def. West Coast 9.8.62 at AAMI. Team changes since last time they met – Port Adelaide - In: Chaplin, Salopek, Logan. Out: Bentley, Thomson, Lonie. West Coast - In: Cousins, Fletcher, Staker, Stenglein, Wirrpanda. Out: Armstrong, C.Jones, McKenzie, McKinley, Morton. At AAMI this season: Port Adelaide 8-4, West Coast 1-1.

This will probably be the most attacking game of the weekend. Port are in great form, but they have been in vulnerable positions at three quarter time in each of their last 5 games. Fortunately, they got over the line in four of those and pinched two of them. I’ve got to say, their defence is definitely the weak link of their team. Without Wakelin, they can be exploited and have been through the middle stages of the season. However, the Eagles hardly have imposing forward line, so Port might again dodge a bullet. The Eagles blew a massive opportunity last week by allowing the Bombers back into the contest and surrendering a home final. Even though they enter the finals on the back of four wins, they’ve played some average football against some average teams and conceding some big scores. They are taking some big risks with unfit players, with all of their inclusions nowhere near fully fit. Port Adelaide are one of the best starters in the competition and with their midfield in sensational form, the Eagles will need more Cousins playing out of his skin to match them. Port have multiple avenues to goal whilst the Eagles will throw all their eggs into the Lynch basket. Hunter must play forward for the Eagles to be any chance. Port have an incredible 10-2 record over the Eagles this decade even including six games at Subiaco. I can’t see the trend changing for this final with Port having too much firepower for the Eagles to withstand and win comfortably.

Score Predictor: Port Adelaide 99 West Coast 89. My Tip: Port Adelaide by 27 points.

Bet: Port Adelaide (half-time/full-time double)

Hawthorn v Adelaide at Telstra Dome

Last time they met (Round 14): Adelaide 15.12.102 def. Hawthorn 4.7.31 at AAMI Team changes since the last time they met – Hawthorn – In: Boyle, Dixon, Vandenberg. Out: Ellis, Jacobs, Thurgood. Adelaide – In: Gill, Griffen. Out: Doughty, Maric. At T.D this season: Hawthorn 4-1, Adelaide 2-2. In Melbourne this season: Hawthorn 10-3, Adelaide 3-4.

I found this the most difficult game to assess of the weekend. Had the game been at the MCG, I’d have no hesitation in selecting the Hawks, but with the game being played at the Dome, it does play into the Crows hands. The midfield lockdown is so much easier to implement at the Dome and the Hawks have been susceptible to it, particularly in the second half of the season. The size of the defeat the Hawks suffered last week has worked in their favour. They go into this game as an underdog and with no real expectations on them to win, so they can take a free swing at the Crows and if their efforts aren’t good enough, then nothing much is lost. The Hawks copped early injuries against the Swans and I think the players went into self-preservation mode leading to the lob-sided result. The Hawks have shown all year they can rebound from bad defeats and their form before the Swans game was sound. One aspect of their game that has to improve is their starts. It takes them too long to fire up, and in finals, if they are slow starters, they will be mauled. Hawthorn’s key midfielders must be more accountable and can’t let Goodwin, Edwards and Thompson free reign like last time. The Hawks must apply a forward tag on McLeod because he is the barometer for that team and provides a lot of their drive. Clinton Young could be the man for the job and could definitely hurt McLeod on the scoreboard. The Crows are great frontrunners with a 10-1 record when they lead at half time. However, if you can get on top of them, they are an appalling 1-7 when they trail at half time. The Crows have a great defence and should be able to limit the Hawks to 11 or 12 goals. The Hawks highest score against Adelaide in their last 7 games is only 75 points at an average of 58. The Crows have enough firepower to cause the Hawks problems in defence and should be able to kick a winning score. The problem is that the Crows highest score for the season is only 110 points, so it’s not really that potent. The Hawks have shown time and time again this year that they can blow a good team out of the water in the space of 15 minutes. They did it to the Kangaroos, West Coast, Port, St.Kilda and Brisbane. At the end of the day, I think the Crows will be able to impose their game style on the Hawks for long enough to get them over the line, but it wont be the foregone conclusion everyone thinks it will be.

Score Predictor: Hawthorn 91 Adelaide 80. My Tip: Adelaide by 11 points.

Collingwood v Sydney at MCG

Last time they met (Round 21): Collingwood 15.12.102 def. Sydney 11.10.76 at the MCG. Team changes since the last time they met – Collingwood – In: Fraser. Out: Bryan. Sydney - In: Roberts-Thomson, Barry, Dempster. Out: Ablett, Brennan, Buchanan. At MCG this season: Collingwood 10-5, Sydney 2-1.

Put simply, I don’t see how the Swans can turn around the defeat they suffered a fortnight ago. The Swans had a few good patches through the game, but the Pies were in control and won well. Their defence has been strengthened with those three inclusions named above, but losing the run of Ablett is a massive blow. Adam Goodes is the only one who can stop the Pies from winning, because he has no logical match-up and is in brilliant form. O’Keefe and Davis will also pose problems for Collingwood’s defence. The Pies were a little off last week, but could still have beaten the Crows with 3 minutes left. They get a consistent contribution every week and are always in the contest. The inclusion of Buckley and Rusling has topped them off and can progress deep into September. Malthouse will have them fired up after last year’s shocking loss to the Bulldogs and this result should still burn inside the players. The Swans are not the team of the previous two seasons and look to be a fair way of the pace. A few glimpses here and there has not shown me they have what it takes to reach the final four. Teams playing half fit players in September are doomed to failure. It’s not the time of year to be carrying passengers and playing Barry Hall with all his ailments is a risk. Collingwood have a superb record over the Swans and have the fitness to run the Swans of their legs. An interstate trip awaits the Pies and they will beat the Swans soundly.

Score Predictor: Collingwood 83 Sydney 93. My Tip: Collingwood by 35 points. Bet: Collingwood Win

Good punting this weekend everybody.

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TazaD

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Was just looking back through the season... ...how many times do you reckon Hawthorn have had more shots v. a team who finished in the finals? Kangaroos in Rd. 3. That's it! Wins over West Coast, but 15.9 to 8.16 down here in the sticks... 17.7 to 10.15 v. Port... 15.5 to 12.15 v. Collingwood... and that's it. Bit pissed I didn't grab that +6.5 on offer for the 'Pies...bit picky about numbers I want...bad things tend to happen when I don't listen (to myself!) Oh well, can't be a bad thing to sit back and hope Buckley (and yes, I will be watching with the sound down so as to not vomit every time I hear the name...all 15 times at best I'm guessing...Pretty impressive 2 touches last week in the final quarter when the game was on the line...and one of them was a holding the ball against!!) and his band of excessively merry men...

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Can anyone shed some light on why the total is quite low and dropping (price-wise)?? I see 'showers around the hills' forecast, but nothing much showing up on radar. Maybe it's in relation to the Eagles' strong defensive history in finals, but they just aren't the same team this year. Their lowest total in the last EIGHT games has been 203! Port have topped 202 in 8 of their last 10. (1 under at Aurora, and one at home v. Adelaide where they allowed them 28 shots! 9.19) Both teams leaking defensively, allowing shotsw @ 1.89 each, and Port score at 1.76 at home this season as it is...Eagles 2.05 away, but still the least points I show is 185... ...in which case Centrebet works for me! 185-204 [saver] 205+ @ effectively 2.17. Fairly rediculous prices imho.

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DeMMa

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Adelaide Over 39.5 Points Over 182.5 Points Over 221 Points Ade/Ade/Ade/Ade Adelaide -8.5 Adelaide/Adelaide I HAVE $200 on each! GL! Edit: If they win today, i will wack heaps on em for flag :)

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th)

Adelaide Over 39.5 Points Over 182.5 Points Over 221 Points Ade/Ade/Ade/Ade Adelaide -8.5 Adelaide/Adelaide I HAVE $200 on each! GL! Edit: If they win today, i will wack heaps on em for flag :)
Looking Great!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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TazaD

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Yeah, that was just plain nasty!!... ...They must have known there was less than 2 minutes left...had 3 points up their sleeve to rush if totally necessary, yet kicked long up (in fact, over!) the line... Poor indeed. I'm going on the under 170.5 tonight (1.72) with a saver of 171-191. Totally discounting last week's score-a-thon by the Swans...should be a tight game all the way and I can't see either team kicking a big score. Sydney score a whole lot less away from their true home (SCG), and must be due for some poor kicking after last week aswell.

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BURNTUA CRISP

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Geelong v Kangaroos at the MCG

Last time they met (Round 20): Geelong 17.16.118 def. Kangaroos 13.13.91 at Telstra Dome. Team changes since last time they met – Geelong - In: Blake, Byrnes, Rooke. Out: Egan, Varcoe, King. Kangaroos - In: Edwards, Gibson. Out: Campbell, Green. At MCG this season: Geelong 2-0, Kangaroos 2-1.

It’s a perfect day for football and plenty of goals on offer at the MCG. The Kangaroos come into this game with not the greatest preparation. They’ve had two very soft games in the lead up to today and have had no pressure put on them in those games. The Kangaroos fronted the Cats three weeks ago and were blown away in one quarter. Simpson was completely closed down by Ling and the stats of their midfielders were down significantly. The Cats have been tested in the last two weeks and have tuned up beautifully for September. The inclusion of Rooke gives them extra hardness in defence and is very adaptable and could play on a Petrie, Sansbury or Harvey. He’s the perfect replacement for Egan who’ll miss a few weeks. The midfield brigade of Geelong is the best in the competition and are very difficult to restrict. The Roos will use a few tags, but they weren’t that effective three weeks ago and probably wont be again. Geelong are the best starters in the competition winning 19 of their 22 1st quarters and outscoring their opposition by 14 points. For the Kangaroos to win, they need to be leading at half time because they only hold their own in second halves. Geelong need to watch Wells and Harvey, and if they can be subdued, the Cats should win by a sizeable margin. Score Predictor: Geelong 119 Kangaroos 99. My Tip: Geelong by 52 points.

Bet: Geelong (Margin 40+) Good luck if you are having a go this afternoon.

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TazaD

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) You better put me down for a copy of this upcoming mind-managing book of your, Ash... ...two totals, way off... What the hell where Sydney thinking last night, not slowing it down when it was painfully clear they weren't going to keep up?! I give up...should have steered clear when I first said it. Time to cross the deep blue ocean... ;)

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Ashtee

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Adelaide were a little kind also - sort of granted a home final (given Telstra Dome) then chose to stick with their new 'open it up' style. Cory Jones was another closed down last time by the cats but they'll want him today, however he is in doubt to play.

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BURNTUA CRISP

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) The finals series started with a bang, but ended in a whimper. That was a shocking performance by the Kangaroos, and has thrown their finals series into disarray. They were hanging on quarter time, but were crushed thereafter. Their prime movers were nullified and their forward line was impotent throughout. Fortunately, they don’t go into next week’s game against Hawthorn with a 106 deficit hanging over their heads. I’m convinced their soft games leading into today did them no favours whatsoever and now they need to regroup to tackle the Hawks. The Cats got on top early and never relented. They still have a few creases to iron out, but they are the dominant team in the competition and it would be a shame if they didn’t win the flag. Either Port or Collingwood would be the only serious challenges to them. Port Adelaide were well below par on Friday night, but still managed to get over the line. They got sucked into the lockdown style, and it took nearly 3 quarters to extricate themselves, but inevitably finished all over the injury-ravaged Eagles. I must say it was the most convincing 3 point victory I’ve ever seen, but they just couldn’t convert their opportunities. The Eagles were brave warriors, but injuries brought about their downfall and now have the dangerous Magpies to confront in Perth on Friday night. I went to both games on Saturday and I wasn’t disappointed. The game at the Dome was top shelf and as good a game I’ve seen in the last 5 years. The Crows started brilliantly kicking their highest 1st quarter score and highest 1st half score of the season. The Hawks were getting on top in the 3rd, but just couldn’t hit the lead with the Crows gaining the upper hand towards the end of the quarter and going into the last quarter had a handy buffer. The last quarter was sensational with heroes and villains all over the place. It took some magic from Franklin to win the game by his consistent conversion from outside 50. The roar when Franklin converted the goal to sealed it, nearly deafened me. It was fantastic game that will be spoken about for years to come. Collingwood did the business over the aging Swans and never looked threatened after half time. The Swans backline was torn apart, their midfield didn’t have enough contributors and their forward line never really looked dangerous. The Pies are reinvigorated with Buckley, Rusling and Pendlebury back in the team with a few games under their belt and they’d now be disappointed not to make a preliminary final if last night was any indication. Their record in Perth isn’t great, but the Eagles record isn’t great without Judd, Kerr and Cousins either. Oh well, such is life! Geelong and Port have the week off and look likely to face each other in the Grand Final. Looks like we are just going through the motions next week, but hopefully we’ll have two teams coming off strong wins and throw the gauntlet down to Port and Geelong.

The Wash-Up

Predictor – 2 from 4 Tips – 3 from 4 Bets – 2 from 3 (Two posters ruined the Port bet.)

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Ashtee

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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Kangaroos played like they were complacent from having pinched fourth, which did seem on the cards. Running through the Geelong warm up huddle was also shocking karma. Those sort of things always have the reverse affect IMO. Congrats on the two from three winning bets BC. I'm guessing it converts to a profit???. :unsure :)

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