AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd)

[Ashtee]

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Wish the AFL would hurry up and take Channel Seven's coverage from them before the finals. :hope ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Still feeling pretty silly about last week... ...so again, I can't emphasise enough...Specific appologies to deMMa... ...and sorry to any/everyone I also managed to offend on my poorly thought out drunken rant... ...even sorry to those who I know weren't offended but just thought (rightly!) I was just been a complete tossbag! (Ash!) :$ ok... ...Richmond +17.5 will be a defninate...best I can see currently is 16.5, and I'll be on that I reckon. Down to one thing...the MCG...well, more-over any venue that is exposed to the elements! In games outside the dome this season, St. Kilda av. an amazingly low 67 ppg!! 45 I50's, a shot every 2.17 for 20 shots per game...tough to see them holding Richmond to a score low enough to win by a big margin. As I've mentioned before, Richmond have had a horror draw, playing 6 of the top 7 in the last 8 games...and won the other 2! They lost by 17 points last meeting, but that was at the Saints preferred home at the dome... ...St. Kilda have played 7 of their last 9 at the dome...and I guess unsurprisingly have lost the two away from 'home', and even so a winning margin of exactly 16.5 in their last 6 wins (at all grounds) hardly inspires confidence. OK....Sydney, 2.60 @ home?!...not just "home", but SCG home? Yeah...might be missing O'Loughlan, Buchanon, Kennelly...resting Hall... ...but Barry back...and it's at the SCG?!...where they've won and covered 9 of 10 spreads. They av. +7 I50's, hold teams to 20 shots and win by 50 points! Clearly personel makes a difference, but in what figures to be a low scoring, defensive slog, the home team is being amazingly under-rated here, imo. Hawthorn's form? Last 9 games, 5 wins...Collingwood with 7 less shots!! Richmond, Essendon, Brisbane (just 4 more shots @ MCG) and Doggies...all bottom 7 teams. Sydney haven't been great either, but just 1 of last 6 at SCG, and 12 point loss @ WC and a draw @ Brisbane look a lot tougher tasks than hosting Hawthorn. Kangaroos @ 1.30 is a joke...a good, funny joke that is!! :lol

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) I was thinking - "Big day on the refreshments. Can't wait to hear all about it ... if he remembers" :lol Richmond for me too. For same reasons. Wallace has stopped trying to (over) coach lately and just given them their heads. I'm hitting the SU ... of course. :D Mind you, I'll probably be playing the true big ground lemons in Essendon to cover. Hansens almost the hidden X factor among those huge names missing and motivating factors should play their part for Dons off last weeks let down. Fremantle price too big to ignore IMO. Go well at AAMI, Harvey will have them running out the season and Port could be karmically suspect IMV. Kangas to cover the 22.5. Darcy's last game shouldn't be enough to lift them. Just want to get the season over and done with is what I'm seeing.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd)

I was thinking - "Big day on the refreshments. Can't wait to hear all about it ... if he remembers" :lol Fremantle price too big to ignore IMO. Go well at AAMI, Harvey will have them running out the season and Port could be karmically suspect IMV.

Oh, I remember...just a very uninteresting story unfortunately! :$ ...Wild Turkey and a bottle of coke for $35, you'd be mad to pass it up! :D (Madder still when you don't...) Can Freo actually field a team this week? Port 1.20 only being offered at Lassetters and Betfair (all I can see anyway) H'Cap still looks suspect, but tough to see them losing.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Should keep the cross town rivalry in good shape. Eagles will be nice and pleased.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Yeah...you really have to wonder about the motivation of clubs/coaches sometimes. Do suspensions in pointless games make a statement other than "It's a pointless game"?? Even looking at the yeams in Sydney I'm still at a bit of a loss as to why Sydney are 2.55 'dogs. :\ Shall be more than happy to oblige. Also tempted by the Bombers, Ash, but you'd have to say they've named a 'suspect' team aswell at best. (Although Fletch names, not likely to play tho I wouldn't have thought?) No Kerr, Judd, Hansen....still a 4 goal loss to Richmond, a win over a laying down Carlton and 2 10+ goal losses in the last month doesn't exactly leave me brimming with confidence about the 'Dons. On Richmond +16.5, reckon I'll be on Sydney and a Port/Kangas double at a measly 1.50ish. Good luck guys. :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Collingwood v. Adelaide under 192.5 Seems a very big total for a Crows game. They've gone over this number just twice all season, and they were both due to some very, VERY straight kicking...a combined 35-17 v. Freo, and 34-18 v. Essendon. Collingwood look to be getting back to some decent defensive form, allowing just 26, 26, 25 and 21 shots in their last 4. The last 7 meetings (2003) have ALL been under this amount, av. 158.2! There really shouldn't be too many more than 100 I50's in this game, so with any semblance of 'normal' kicking, we shouldn't see too many points. (In fact they are the lowest and 3rd lowest teams for accuracy!)

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Congrats Dean Bailey on snaring the Melbourne job. It’s probably the best of the four jobs left vacant with a big chance of a quick rebound in 2008. The Dockers should also challenge for finals depending how deep Harvey cuts the list. There is plenty of pain ahead for the Bombers and Blues to come with no finals likely for at least 3 years.

There are usually plenty of blowouts historically in round 22, and this should be no exception. Tonight’s game is to close to call, but an Adelaide loss would keep 8th spot open for a little longer, although Rusling is out for Ben Reid. The game total shouldn’t go over 190.

Number of players missing from best 22’s

1 – Kangaroos 2 – Hawthorn 3 – Geelong, Sydney 4 – Port Adelaide, St.Kilda 5 – Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast 6 – Brisbane, Collingwood, Richmond 7 – Western Bulldogs 8 – Carlton, Melbourne 12- Fremantle

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

COLLINGWOOD 79-86 Adelaide Richmond 75-92 ST.KILDA WESTCOAST 105-73 Essendon PORT ADELAIDE 109-84 Fremantle Brisbane 92-116 GEELONG SYDNEY 80-87 Hawthorn Western Bulldogs 73-116 KANGAROOS

MELBOURNE86-92 Carlton

Suggested Bets

ST.KILDA Points (-20.5)

- Too many big forwards for Richmond to handle and the ability to close down the Tigers run. Tigers haven’t won a final round game since 2001 and beating the Saints will be more difficult than pumping the Bombers. GEELONG Margin 1-39

- Cats defence shouldn’t have many problems restricting Brown & Co with Ling to tag Black who has been average in the last month. Lions had the stuffing knocked out of them losing to the Hawks and haven’t really recovered. SYDNEY Win

- Need to hit the finals with some momentum or they’ll be blown away in week one. Hawks have an appalling record in Sydney and will be hit harder this week compared to last week’s non-contact training session.

Good luck on the punt this weekend.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) You’d expect Essendon won’t be happy with last week, which would suggest a special effort this time. The big ground and six changes are obvious concerns but they have quite a strong experienced line up in reality – they go in stronger than for the last three, and as strong as they’ve been in the last eight IMO. West Coast without superstars Judd, Kerr and Embley, AND THE REAL X-MAN … HANSEN - they are 10-2 with him and 4-5 without him (included Hawthorn game where he was injured). If the respect for Hird & Sheedy is genuine enough, then I’d expect Essendon will keep this competitive. Spewing I missed the 42.5 @ 1.95 Global by a few seconds. :wall Looks like they've got the blows anyway.

[ajax_l]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Top pick TazaD with that under 192.5

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd)

Wish the AFL would hurry up and take Channel Seven's coverage from them before the finals. :hope ;)

Tim Watson. Does he not read the news or sport of something over there?? I could kill him!! :wall After Adealaide's third goal he precedes to telkl us how much better the Crows look when kicking it long, and not chipping it around looking for targets. "All 3 goals now have come from long kicks and quick play on" ...(or something very similar he said) er, Tim. The first goal was a Thompson snap, from IIRC a ball up? Second goal was a down field free-kick to Riccuto for a hold. Third goal was a blaze away kick which went about 40 dg'd to the direction it was aimed and luckily landed in Burton's hands. Now, I can...no, no I can't sorry. His voice puts me to sleep, he has no real idea aboutg subtlety/how to take Dennis...even kept 'arguing' about that bouncing Collingwood "goal" that was clearly touched... ...and now he's having simple memory lapses over less than 10 minutes?! GIVE IT AWAY! :cry:spank Thanks ajaz. The Saints now with no real motivation for today...let's hope they play that way...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Ad I said elsehere, I would have prefered Adelaide lost, regarding Richmond's chances. Geelong are worth a play tonight, particuarly if have a Blue Square (-15.5_ account or the -17.5 is OK also.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Really? I thought St. Kilda dead-set slept-walked through that one! I'm sure at times in the first half I even saw players joking and laughing amongst themselves at different times. Of course Richmond were equally as uninterested. There are a couple of different types of people out there right now... ...those that took Richmond to get the Wooden Spoon are breathing a huge sigh of relief... ...and those who took West Coast to be the highest placed interstate team are absolutely spitting chips.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Just feel that players on last game becomes a more effective motivator than playing worried and nervous about getting a spot. Were big factors of course in both the Saints and Bombers last quarters. The bit I'm annoyed at Freo is that I don't need Cornes getting easy votes and also I have a Coleman Medal bet on Pavlich (-2 going in).

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Yeah, not too sure about that Ash. (Not that I'm trying to start a fight here!! :moon) ...but what happened in Melbourne? Extra Saint motivation?...Typically bad coaching by Wallace to slow the game down to a walk when they had all the running and Saints were out...or (from a Richmond pov) unusually good coaching by Wallace to slow the game down to a walk when St. Kilda were gone?! On a slightly different topic, it's probably a good thing that Gehrig kicked that last goal...wouldn't have liked to see the game decided by less than a goal after the Riewoldt hit/miss... And Essendon, well I thought they were in it all day! Only had 4 less shots at 3/4 and plenty of the play. Lucas going off in the last was just the 'norm' lately for an Eagles defense that can't seem to plug anyone! (And if Glass gets even nominated for AA then they don't watch enough games football...even tho I know he wasn't on Lucas...) ...Mind you Scarlett was soundly beaten last night aswell. Anyway, I'm on Sydney +12.5 (And anyway, anyway...it's a bit of a pointless argument from my perspective, 'cause I didn't even factor in the 'motivation' levels when I took Richmond...didn't even cross my mind :$ )

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) It's the #1 thing I consider each week, Taza. If motivating factors were as simple as who needs the win, then it makes you wonder why Port weren't up seven goals at 3/4-time against that lot. Yeah, I was certainly disappointed with Richmond not finishing the job. They did look to hold it a few times, to my annoyance, then still seemed to want to attack as well but just couldn't penetrate a goal. Not saying it definitely was the factor in that game but sometimes both sides know (on a subtle level) that one wants to win it more (for their mates) and it ends up making the difference. I know many think that's a load of rubbish but not me. :D

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Actually, I tend to agree...but coming from the other direction... I think too much stock gets put into emotion some times...I mean if Adelaide had have lost, you can bet that the Saints would have blown out to -20 or more, because now they had to win to make the finals. I certainly don't deny different motivations can affect teams at different times...I (personally) just prefer to trust the simple numbers rather than delving too deeply into closet football psychology! :D I tell you one thing I do see a LOT in the 3 major sports I bet on (AFL, NFL, NBA)... ...if a line moves a long way due to injury/player withdrawal (ie. Port went from -21.5 to -39.5 at some places!!!), the team will very rarely cover the new spread. ** Why? Because books know people will load up on the 'certainty' and so over-cook the fav. (Sorry, not so much a motivation thing I know!...got side tracked there a bit...) ** In fact, the majoity of the time the result will end right in between the 2 lines...so if you're quick enough to grab the opening line, middle it with the over-blown line and it's middle city ;) Took an under in Sydney. Now the worst thing that can possibly happen to me is Franklin goes silly and kicks a bag. Will kill the Sydney bet, the uder and really ruin my Dream Team GF chances if they aren't already blown with Captain Carrazzo given the wek off to secure last place. :(

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd)

I tell you one thing I do see a LOT in the 3 major sports I bet on (AFL, NFL, NBA)... ...if a line moves a long way due to injury/player withdrawal (ie. Port went from -21.5 to -39.5 at some places!!!), the team will very rarely cover the new spread. ** Why? Because books know people will load up on the 'certainty' and so over-cook the fav. (Sorry, not so much a motivation thing I know!...got side tracked there a bit...)

I think it's still relevant to the topic, Taza. Quite often a teams focus (perhaps on the rebound ... saying all this watching the Sydney game ;)) is such that a player out won't hamper what the team is about to do. I'm not a close follower of US sports like yourself, so I'm not sure, but my perception is that motivating factors aren't what they are in AFL. In AFL, teams get all week to stew and prepare for things. Some of those US sports seem a little like ... get up each morning, have brekky, brush teeth, kiss wife (girlfriend or boyfriend), go to (play) baseball ... such is the frequency of games. To me, their usually seems that element of intensity (both players & spectators) missing. As such it make more sense to me that pure numbers should be more of a key thing in betting anayalis (can't spell the word) for those sports.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) NFL get a week off to stew ;) ...but yeah, same deal happens in the rest. Two even teams play in the last week, but one is a BIG fav because they "need" to win to make the finals, the other team has nothing to play for. This is where I'm getting at motivation not being a major factor...or as you said, it may even be to their detrament (while we're on this spelling bee!) as they tighten up. I'm quite willing to admit that I may have a bit to learn of matters grey (you like that one? ;)), but I'll suggest that not one of this weeks results would have been different if it were rd. 12, and not 22. Why would Essendon be more motivated for their mates than WC would be to get a big win and finish top 2 with a heap of home finals ahead? Why are the Dogs not putting up a better effort with 2 of their big names going out tonight? (Not even the most optimistic Bully here is waiting for a 4th quarter revival in this one!!) I dunno...just seems to me that if you're on the field, you're motivated. End of. And...people always seem to react far more to mass changes, rather than 1 key player. (I'm pretty sure that's more of an AFL thing) Fev out HURTS Carlton. Hanson out HURTS Eagles. Brad Johnson out HURTS Bulldogs...no doubt... ...but we get 6-7 changes to lesser players (or good players who have had little impact anyway...Hall...) and suddenly Freo are a 40 pint worse side than Port and Hawthorn start favs in Sydney? (I think I've gone off track again!)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) I'm not suggesting there's a foolproof system here for getting the pick-8 in Round-22. As a matter of fact I'm on Kangaroos to cover (watching delayed telecast) partly because I feel WBD's disappointing overall season could have them in a 'just get it over and done with' frame of mind. Mind you a last quarter hurragh will not surprise. Kangaroos go in with nothing to lose as compared to Hawthorn, WCE, Port - Adel handled it well. Didn't really want to say so but I believe I could wright a book on mind factors - doesn't mean I'm right of course :D. There's different mind states in playing with nothing to lose but in respect for a retiring club man to playing with some lingering fear that you have to get it right - blatantly obvious with Hawthorn dropping easy marks, missing shots they'd normally snap. ps - I'm not suggesting a third of US Baseballers are gay.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Just the ones that aren't vain enough to take steroids? :unsure oh well...3-1 for the week...the under blown in a game with 'only' 50 shots. Wouldn't expect too many of them to top 192. :@ Stuff the finals. It's NFL time!! :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Darcy - his mouth guard throwing game against the Crows a few years ago (I was on the dogs at odds) was my favourite. Shame we didn't get chance to see more of that the last three years. Thought I'd get picky (again) about sevens commentary but they actually had a really good second half. I don't see any motivating factors for that but I think it was more to do with putting the star player in the action - Bruce had plenty to say and even Ox chipped in with couple of intelligent remarks :loon :clap. However they did have crap first half;

Ox - when Jones Ko'd Swallow - "no apology from Jones" he said with astonishment, as Jones promptly ran up ground to do his job. Maybe at Melbourne they had to apologise to teammates for going hard at the ball. :eyes Bruce - trying to be clever remarking how he "expected to see Bulldogs playing in September on sunny day ... remember Bulldogs v Collingwood last year" - Well, I suspect you're saying this to hide that

you

actually don't remember ... you don't even follow it Bruce! :eyes Bruce - Remarking about Kang v Geel next week. "well, we (seven telecast) saw them play Geelong about a month ago". Two weeks isn't approxiamately a month Bruce. Then again, you probably would forget if your not really following it Bruce! :eyes

I'm being harsh, I know, but I think they earn it.

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Carlton with a great loss, Matthew Kruezer is ours!!! Bring on National Draft Day!! :drums:drums:drums

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) You will pay for it karmically, though ads. The Loooord will strike you down! :spank 10 units Carlton to be bottom four till 2011

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd)

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	For	Against	%	Points
1	Geelong	22	18	0	4	2542	1664	153	72
2	Port Adelaide	22	15	0	7	2314	2038	114	60
3	West Coast	22	15	0	7	2162	1935	112	60
4	Kangaroos	22	14	0	8	2183	1998	110	56
5	Hawthorn	22	13	0	9	2097	1855	114	52
6	Collingwood	22	13	0	9	2011	1992	101	52
7	Sydney	22	12	1	9	2031	1698	120	50
8	Adelaide	22	12	0	10	1881	1712	110	48
9	St. Kilda	22	11	1	10	1874	1941	97	46
10	Brisbane	22	9	2	11	1986	1885	106	40
11	Fremantle	22	10	0	12	2254	2198	103	40
12	Essendon	22	10	0	12	2184	2394	92	40
13	Western Bulldogs	22	9	1	12	2111	2469	86	38
14	Melbourne	22	5	0	17	1890	2418	79	20
15	Carlton	22	4	0	18	2167	2911	75	16
16	Richmond	22	3	1	18	1958	2537	78	14

Friday September 7, 2007 Second qualifying final Port Adelaide v West Coast at AAMI Stadium, 7.50pm CST TV: Channel 7 (Live into Melbourne and Perth; 30 min delay into Adelaide; 15 min delay to Sydney. Brisbane) Saturday September 8, 2007 First elimination final Hawthorn v Adelaide at Telstra Dome, 2.30pm AEST TV: Channel 10 (Live into Adelaide, Perth, Sydney and Brisbane; 30 min delay into Melbourne) Second elimination final Collingwood v Sydney Swans at the MCG, 7.30pm AEST TV: Channel 10 (Live into Adelaide, Perth, Sydney and Brisbane; 30 min delay into Melbourne) Sunday September 9, 2007 First qualifying final: Geelong v Kangaroos at the MCG, 2.45pm AEST TV: Channel 7 (Live into Adelaide, Perth, Sydney and Brisbane; 30 min delay into Melbourne)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd)

Carlton with a great loss, Matthew Kruezer is ours!!! Bring on National Draft Day!! :drums:drums:drums

I'm not sure what worries me most tbh... ...the fact that you don't seem to realise it will be at least 3-4 years before you see any improvement at all, or that you are so consistantly interested in young boys...:unsure :lol Geelong 1.16?!!...Kangas +30ish anyone... :tongue2

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) The finals race is down to 8, but realistically 3. The teams from 5^th downwards are just making up the numbers whilst the Kangaroos can boost their hopes by toppling the Cats in week 1 without Egan at centre half back. The Roos have some hardcore finals performers, but can they carry their inexperienced teammates with them. The Cats are flying at present and should have too many guns for the Roos. Port Adelaide have a great record over the Eagles at AAMI and look the goods, although they are prone to fadeouts particularly in 3^rd quarters in their last 2 home games. The Eagles are hard to gauge without knowing who’ll line up, but they can’t be dismissed lightly. The Crows will go in overwhelming favourites against the Hawks at Telstra Dome. The Crows did the job over Collingwood on Friday night, but weren’t that convincing allowing the Pies to stay in the game all night. The Hawks were awful yesterday, but I think they went into the game with a poor mindset and losing key players early didn’t help their cause. They’ve always been able to bounce back after poor defeats all year, and I’d expect them to go close. I haven’t seen anything in the last 9 days to suggest that Sydney can turn the tables on Collingwood. The Pies will be strengthened with Fraser, Didak, Holland and Rusling returning. The Swans were good yesterday but a performance like that is pretty rare for the Swans nowadays.

The Wash-Up

Round 22

Predictor – 6 from 8 Tips – 7 from 8 Bets – 1 from 3

Season

Predictor – 111 from 176 (63%) Tips – 115 from 176 (65%) Bets – 43 from 85 (51%)

The pain is only beginning for the Blues. They’ve been getting great draft picks for 6 years and are still on the bottom. Remarkably, they still have 10 or 12 players on their list that are surplus to requirements and not up to AFL standard. They still need one big cleanout before things improve, but will they have the guts to do it?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd)

Geelong 1.16?!!...Kangas +30ish anyone... :tongue2

Too short for mine. I'm likely a nibble at the price on Kangaroos.