Not to lose accy's

[Morris]

As I have said in other threads, I have recently been looking through PL a lot, looking through some interesting ideas and trying to see if any of them could be sucessful when put into a paper trial. And....I saw this bet calculator: http://www.footballanorak.com/not_to_lose.html (hopefully this is not spam!) which was interesting to me (basically gives you different permutation as to how you can group teams in accumulators on the basis the teams you have chosen you believe they will not lose) and I though that as the season was just warming up that I would give it a try and see if it can be of any use. It definatly gives better value than the double chance coupon for sure. All accumulators give the same return, but from differing stakes if that makes sense, play about with it yourself and see what I mean. I have searched to see if anyone has tried before by using the search forum tool, but have not found anyone trying this, so I thought I would give it a go :loon. (Sorry if I have stolen someones thunder?) Basically I will place 50 units in total everytime I go to do an accy. 10 on 1 team 10 on 2 teams 10 on 3 teams 10 on 4 teams 10 on 5 teams I didn't know whether to leave out the 4/5 team ones, as the perms are huuuge, but they should be ok as I am still thinking of how to post them (mabey after the event as I keep record of them or post them up in a doc. form). :ok. Also I did contemplate using a strict team selection by choosing - Celtic, Rangers, Man Utd:puke, Chelsea and Arsenal or 'dead certs' as they are jinxed on the forums, but I wanted to be more flexible and try and work around these, rather than being rigid and sticking to a formula - when hard games appear this could have been a problem (Chelsea vs Liverpool and Arsenal vs Blackburn for example). For anyone who is interested, Investing a straight 50 squid on these 'big 5' this weekend would return £173.04 providing they all aviod losing. The calculator currently has on it UK teams, so this will be the basis of my picking for now until I find any bigger, better and vastly more improved calc's, but as I have not been botherd to search for one, this one will do :).* Odds being used will be the best that the calculator can find for me.* *(Laaaaaaazyeeeeeeeeeee :zzz) Hopefully there will be a few opinions posted, a few tips and someone pointing out anything I have missed. Other than that :hope I am sucessful. :ok

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Not to lose accy's You could always use foreign leagues by pretending and substituting in odds. Example: Want to use Lyon. Pick any other team you arent using(e.g. Blackpool), when the odds come up put in the odds available for Lyon. When the perms are worked out substitute Lyon everytime it says Blackpool. The bigger accas permed could be a pain. If it was same stake perms no problem but as you have different stakes youll have to place each bet seperatly.

[Aphobos]

Re: Not to lose accy's That looks really interesting. I just tried it with Rangers, St Johnstone and Raith. The return looked decent enough. I hope this is a success for you. As WorkingForTheEnemy said it would probably be a good idea to start with a smaller amount of selections. I did a similar thing which involved placing 9 bets on 3 selections and even that started to get a bit tiresome when it came to placing the bets. With 3 or 5 selections it might take a bit of the enjoyment out of it for you.

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's Thanks for the comments guy. Yeah, well at the moment this is a paper trial and I am just going to be testing it to see how it goes so the big placing of bets will not be a problem. I may look to shorten the teams to 1,2 and 3 in the furture and then up the stake on the 3 selections, but I will see how it goes like this for now. It will probably be a paper trial for the 1st few months, maybe even longer until I have seen what it can do and how much potential it actually has. Good idea about the substitution of teams, but I think I will stick with the U.K leagues for now.:ok This will be the 1st attempt, in a domino style, meaning I will add 1 team to each bet: 1. Celtic - Stake 10 in an attempt to return 12.48 2. Celtic and W.B.A - Stake 10 in an attempt to return 15.11 3. Celtic, W.B.A and Plymouth - Stake 10 in an attempt to return 20.47 4. Celtic, W.B.A, Plymouth and Luton - Stake 10 in an attempt to return 30.71 5. Celtic, W.B.A, Plymouth, Luton and Sunderland - Stake 10 in an attempt to return 50.52 You will have to trust me for now on the returns etc, anyone how wants to query them can input the teams themselves to check. I did think of trying to upload a notepad doc. with all the perms and then post the winning one off them after the match days, but I am confused and can't do it. :$ :hope

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's On reflection, the staking plan is dismal, it has not been thought through too well :unsure. I would need the 1st 2nd and 3rd bets to come in to give me a small loss and then the 4th to put me in small profit. Scrap that. I think I will keep it simple, but effective. A straight 50 unit treble. Taking advantage of the good football tomorrow I will start a fresh with the new stakes and not take the last staking systems stats into account. 1. Not to lose - Man Utd, Wolves and Celtic - Stake 50 - Potential returns - 116.76. Manchester United to win @ 1.97 Wolves to win @ 2.75 Celtic to win @ 1.94 £11.11 @ 10.51 returns £116.76 Manchester United to win @ 1.97 Wolves to win @ 2.75 Celtic to draw @ 3.50 £6.16 @ 18.96 returns £116.76 Manchester United to win @ 1.97 Wolves to draw @ 3.30 Celtic to win @ 1.94 £9.26 @ 12.61 returns £116.76 Manchester United to win @ 1.97 Wolves to draw @ 3.30 Celtic to draw @ 3.50 £5.13 @ 22.75 returns £116.76 Manchester United to draw @ 3.40 Wolves to win @ 2.75 Celtic to win @ 1.94 £6.44 @ 18.14 returns £116.76 Manchester United to draw @ 3.40 Wolves to win @ 2.75 Celtic to draw @ 3.50 £3.57 @ 32.73 returns £116.76 Manchester United to draw @ 3.40 Wolves to draw @ 3.30 Celtic to win @ 1.94 £5.36 @ 21.77 returns £116.76 Manchester United to draw @ 3.40 Wolves to draw @ 3.30 Celtic to draw @ 3.50 £2.97 @ 39.27 returns £116.76

[Aphobos]

Re: Not to lose accy's Best of luck with this. I'll be keeping an eye on it as I think you could make a consistent profit here. :hope

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's Sorry about the wait, I have been having a bit of trouble with the internet.

1. Not to lose - Man Utd, Wolves and Celtic - Stake 50 - Potential returns - 116.76. :wall

I will look at tonights fixtures and see if therer is anything Bets - 1 Won - 0 Lost - 1 P/L - - 50

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's I know this is a betters downfall, but before the weekend I will do a few more accumulators to try and recoup my losses from the weekend :spank - lets see how it goes. Bet 2 - Ivory Coast, Ghana and Italy U21's not to lose - Stake 50 - Potential Returns - 106.61 Ghana to win @ 2.40 Italy U21's to win @ 2.25 Ivory Coast to win @ 2.10 £9.40 @ 11.34 returns £106.61 Ghana to win @ 2.40 Italy U21's to win @ 2.25 Ivory Coast to draw @ 3.20 £6.17 @ 17.28 returns £106.61 Ghana to win @ 2.40 Italy U21's to draw @ 2.87 Ivory Coast to win @ 2.10 £7.37 @ 14.46 returns £106.61 Ghana to win @ 2.40 Italy U21's to draw @ 2.87 Ivory Coast to draw @ 3.20 £4.84 @ 22.04 returns £106.61 Ghana to draw @ 3.00 Italy U21's to win @ 2.25 Ivory Coast to win @ 2.10 £7.52 @ 14.18 returns £106.61 Ghana to draw @ 3.00 Italy U21's to win @ 2.25 Ivory Coast to draw @ 3.20 £4.94 @ 21.6 returns £106.61 Ghana to draw @ 3.00 Italy U21's to draw @ 2.87 Ivory Coast to win @ 2.10 £5.90 @ 18.08 returns £106.61 Ghana to draw @ 3.00 Italy U21's to draw @ 2.87 Ivory Coast to draw @ 3.20 £3.87 @ 27.55 returns £106.61

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Re: Not to lose accy's wouldnt it be easier to do a lay multiple on betfair?

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's I am not sure, I don't use betfair - im a noob :unsure, but when I get some spare time ill probably look into the posibility a bit more and consider whats best. Thanks for the idea though, but for the time being I would rather stick to what I know (and what I find simpler) :ok.

[2hcb]

Re: Not to lose accy's this looks like a good idea lucky1! Have you looked at the possibility of using more or less than 3 sides? I'll be keeping an eye on your progress, all the best!

[Aphobos]

Re: Not to lose accy's Hi Lucky1, I've started trying this out too on another account and I hope I haven't jinxed you as today I have 2 of the selections you have- I put them on before I seen your post which is a bit scarey. I started yesterday cause I like the idea and just to see how it goes with small stakes, like all my other bets yesterday it lost. Something I did notice though I thought worth mentioning. I'm am staking £2 with BetUK on 3 selections and after trying the calculator it reported the return based on BetUK's prices would be £9.61. So I then thought I'll see how much is returned on a treble of double chances and it was £10.23. It might be worth looking at. Upside is it appears to be a better return and alot less hassle to place- in that repsect if you chose to use more than 3 selections it would really come into it;s own. The only downside is that double chance is not always available with a particular bookie. As I said previously I'll keep looking in to see how you are doing and hopefully it all goes well. I like the look of this one. I'm also going to stick with doing it on the side for a week and might toy with draw no bet too to see how it equates. All the best.:ok

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's

this looks like a good idea lucky1! Have you looked at the possibility of using more or less than 3 sides? I'll be keeping an eye on your progress, all the best!

Thanks and yeah, as you can see earlier in the posting. I decided on 3 because it gave decent odds of around 2.00 (Evens) and was not too long to post. Bigger selection have many different permutations and as whycantistayawayfromdogs said, it might just be easier to lay multiples if you were going to put this into practice in the longer accy's?

Hi Lucky1, I've started trying this out too on another account and I hope I haven't jinxed you as today I have 2 of the selections you have- I put them on before I seen your post which is a bit scarey. I started yesterday cause I like the idea and just to see how it goes with small stakes, like all my other bets yesterday it lost. Something I did notice though I thought worth mentioning. I'm am staking £2 with BetUK on 3 selections and after trying the calculator it reported the return based on BetUK's prices would be £9.61. So I then thought I'll see how much is returned on a treble of double chances and it was £10.23. It might be worth looking at. Upside is it appears to be a better return and alot less hassle to place- in that repsect if you chose to use more than 3 selections it would really come into it;s own. The only downside is that double chance is not always available with a particular bookie. As I said previously I'll keep looking in to see how you are doing and hopefully it all goes well. I like the look of this one. I'm also going to stick with doing it on the side for a week and might toy with draw no bet too to see how it equates. All the best.:ok

Yeah, good point Delavida, I briefly looked at a double chance coupon at the start of this thread on laddies and was quickly put off by odds of 1.04 to 1.01 for some teams, so when I found this I was excitable :loon. But, I did actually go to use the coupon early today to compare (bit freeky again seeing as you did also :lol) and I found that the games I wanted were not on there as you said (I wanted the Sligo Rovers match or the Ghana match or the Ivory Coast match which were all not on there.). I think for the bigger matches the 'not to lose' accumulator will give better odds - because a double chance on Celtic or Man Utd for example is typically 1.01, wheras for a 5 'not to lose' it would be a lot higer than 5 x 1.01. Best of luck with your selection, I am looking at small stakes within the coming weeks as nothing else I have been doing has shown any signs of profit :unsure.

[2hcb]

Re: Not to lose accy's

Thanks and yeah' date=' as you can see earlier in the posting. [b']I decided on 3 because it gave decent odds of around 2.00 (Evens) and was not too long to post. Bigger selection have many different permutations and as whycantistayawayfromdogs said, it might just be easier to lay multiples if you were going to put this into practice in the longer accy's?

you could just name the 3 teams you're going with and the odds on them to win/draw, the potential winnings and just say you're applying the 'Not to lose' system to your selections :ok

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's

Ivory Coast:hope , Ghana :clap and Italy U21's :clap not to lose

Okay, well it looks as if the Egypt vs Ivory Coast match has posponed until today so Bet 2 is still pending. I think I will take advantage of the big international fixture list by posting a few more today, sticking with just the 3 selections. Bet 3 - Spain, Holland and Croatia not to lose - Stake 50 - Potential Returns £109.54 (But, Double Chance Coupon odds = 2.19 - 17p more returns:unsure) Spain to win @ 2.37 Croatia to win @ 2.20 Holland to win @ 2.20 £9.55 @ 11.47 returns £109.54 Spain to win @ 2.37 Croatia to win @ 2.20 Holland to draw @ 3.20 £6.57 @ 16.68 returns £109.54 Spain to win @ 2.37 Croatia to draw @ 3.00 Holland to win @ 2.20 £7.00 @ 15.64 returns £109.54 Spain to win @ 2.37 Croatia to draw @ 3.00 Holland to draw @ 3.20 £4.81 @ 22.75 returns £109.54 Spain to draw @ 3.00 Croatia to win @ 2.20 Holland to win @ 2.20 £7.54 @ 14.52 returns £109.54 Spain to draw @ 3.00 Croatia to win @ 2.20 Holland to draw @ 3.20 £5.19 @ 21.12 returns £109.54 Spain to draw @ 3.00 Croatia to draw @ 3.00 Holland to win @ 2.20 £5.53 @ 19.8 returns £109.54 Spain to draw @ 3.00 Croatia to draw @ 3.00 Holland to draw @ 3.20 £3.80 @ 28.8 returns £109.54

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's Bit of early system rustyness i'd put this down to and the fact that they were freindly matches. I am posting before the matches end just in case my internet goes down and I can't log in after.

Ivory Coast:clap , Ghana :clap and Italy U21's :clap not to lose

But at least I have my first winner on the board, which is something to build upon. Returns 106.61

Bet 3 - Spain :clap, Holland :wall and Croatia :clap not to lose - Stake 50 - Returns £0

Bets - 3 Won - 1 Lost - 2 Staked - 150 Returned - 106.61 P/L -- 43.39 Things should start to get a lot easier and better from here on in :hope

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's I fancy an over night one myself, smallish odds, but it will do. Bet 4 - Mexico, Paraguay and Ecuador not to lose - Stake 50 - Potential Returns - £81.89. Paraguay to win @ 1.57 Mexico to win @ 2.50 Ecuador to win @ 1.61 £12.96 @ 6.32 returns £81.89 Paraguay to win @ 1.57 Mexico to win @ 2.50 Ecuador to draw @ 3.25 £6.42 @ 12.76 returns £81.89 Paraguay to win @ 1.57 Mexico to draw @ 3.20 Ecuador to win @ 1.61 £10.12 @ 8.09 returns £81.89 Paraguay to win @ 1.57 Mexico to draw @ 3.20 Ecuador to draw @ 3.25 £5.02 @ 16.33 returns £81.89 Paraguay to draw @ 3.50 Mexico to win @ 2.50 Ecuador to win @ 1.61 £5.81 @ 14.09 returns £81.89 Paraguay to draw @ 3.50 Mexico to win @ 2.50 Ecuador to draw @ 3.25 £2.88 @ 28.44 returns £81.89 Paraguay to draw @ 3.50 Mexico to draw @ 3.20 Ecuador to win @ 1.61 £4.54 @ 18.03 returns £81.89 Paraguay to draw @ 3.50 Mexico to draw @ 3.20 Ecuador to draw @ 3.25 £2.25 @ 36.4 returns £81.89

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's

Bet 4 - Mexico :wall, Paraguay :clapand Ecuador :clap not to lose - Stake 50 - Returns - £0.

This is not going to well. Hopefully it will start picking up soon :unsure. I put it down to really inconsistent picking by me. im sure the system will start coming good once I get more consistent and start using my head a bit more. Bets - 4 Won - 1 Lost - 3 Staked - 200 Returned - 106.61 P/L - - 93.39

[2hcb]

Re: Not to lose accy's I think you just made the age old mistake of rushing in with a new bet after an irritating loss without checking it properly. This was the Mexican squad for last night's match. Stacked full of youngsters and without European based players.

Goalkeepers: Guillermo Ochoa (America), Alfonso Blanco (Pachuca), Jonathan Orozco (Monterrey). Defenders: Omar Esparza (Guadalajara), Severo Meza (Monterrey), Julio Dominguez (Cruz Azul), Edgar Mejia (Guadalajara), Jonny Magallon (Guadalajara), Hector Moreno (Pumas), Adrian Alderete (Morelia), Efrain Velarde (Pumas). Midfielders: Emmanuel Cerda (Tigres), Jose Guerrero (Atlante), Jaime Correa (Pachuca), Patricio Araujo (Guadalajara), Gerardo Torrado (Cruz Azul), Jorge Hernandez (Atlas), Gerardo Rodriguez (Pachuca), Edgar Castillo (Santos). Forwards: Omar Bravo (Guadalajara), Luis Angel Landin (Morelia), Santiago Fernandez (America), Enrique Esqueda (America), Cesar Villaluz (Cruz Azul).

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's Yeah you are right I didn't actually check the teams for myself but did take this handy info from the Internationals section:

Mexico are at very good odds to beat Colombia 17/10 with coral. very surprised with these odds as Colombia have only called up 2 European based players as the rest are from Colombia. Mexico have called up full strength squad for this game. This game is being played in a neutral venue in the us. therefore 8/10 stakes on Mexico win !!!

Only to go back today and see that this was a mistake by the poster lol, well I guess it was unlucky all round :unsure . Not to worry mistakes can happen and I expect that this week will be a gooden - barring any misleading info :hope

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's Well lets try and things rolling before the start of the weekend, I am thinking of doing a few (4/5) accumulator this weekend, I will see when I take a proper look throguh the fixtures. Bet 5 - Mainz, Hamburg and Sligo not to lose - Stake 50 - Potential Returns - £110.65 Sligo to win @ 2.25 Hamburg to win @ 2.25 Mainz to win @ 2.10 £10.41 @ 10.63 returns £110.65 Sligo to win @ 2.25 Hamburg to win @ 2.25 Mainz to draw @ 3.20 £6.83 @ 16.2 returns £110.65 Sligo to win @ 2.25 Hamburg to draw @ 3.20 Mainz to win @ 2.10 £7.32 @ 15.12 returns £110.65 Sligo to win @ 2.25 Hamburg to draw @ 3.20 Mainz to draw @ 3.20 £4.80 @ 23.04 returns £110.65 Sligo to draw @ 3.20 Hamburg to win @ 2.25 Mainz to win @ 2.10 £7.32 @ 15.12 returns £110.65 Sligo to draw @ 3.20 Hamburg to win @ 2.25 Mainz to draw @ 3.20 £4.80 @ 23.04 returns £110.65 Sligo to draw @ 3.20 Hamburg to draw @ 3.20 Mainz to win @ 2.10 £5.15 @ 21.5 returns £110.65 Sligo to draw @ 3.20 Hamburg to draw @ 3.20 Mainz to draw @ 3.20 £3.38 @ 32.77 returns £110.65

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's Not as much value as I was expecting for tomorrow, so just the 2. Bet 6 - Reading, Plymouth and Watford not to lose - Stake 50 - Potential Returns - £155.71 Reading to win @ 2.75 Plymouth Argyle to win @ 2.75 Watford to win @ 2.50 £8.24 @ 18.91 returns £155.71 Reading to win @ 2.75 Plymouth Argyle to win @ 2.75 Watford to draw @ 3.20 £6.43 @ 24.2 returns £155.71 Reading to win @ 2.75 Plymouth Argyle to draw @ 3.25 Watford to win @ 2.50 £6.97 @ 22.34 returns £155.71 Reading to win @ 2.75 Plymouth Argyle to draw @ 3.25 Watford to draw @ 3.20 £5.44 @ 28.6 returns £155.71 Reading to draw @ 3.25 Plymouth Argyle to win @ 2.75 Watford to win @ 2.50 £6.97 @ 22.34 returns £155.71 Reading to draw @ 3.25 Plymouth Argyle to win @ 2.75 Watford to draw @ 3.20 £5.44 @ 28.6 returns £155.71 Reading to draw @ 3.25 Plymouth Argyle to draw @ 3.25 Watford to win @ 2.50 £5.90 @ 26.41 returns £155.71 Reading to draw @ 3.25 Plymouth Argyle to draw @ 3.25 Watford to draw @ 3.20 £4.61 @ 33.8 returns £155.71 Bet 7 - Schalke, Zaragoza and Osasuna not to lose - Stake 50 - Potential Returns - £120.94 Osasuna to win @ 3.20 Zaragoza to win @ 2.20 Schalke to win @ 2.00 £8.59 @ 14.08 returns £120.94 Osasuna to win @ 3.20 Zaragoza to win @ 2.20 Schalke to draw @ 3.20 £5.37 @ 22.53 returns £120.94 Osasuna to win @ 3.20 Zaragoza to draw @ 3.00 Schalke to win @ 2.00 £6.30 @ 19.2 returns £120.94 Osasuna to win @ 3.20 Zaragoza to draw @ 3.00 Schalke to draw @ 3.20 £3.94 @ 30.72 returns £120.94 Osasuna to draw @ 3.00 Zaragoza to win @ 2.20 Schalke to win @ 2.00 £9.16 @ 13.2 returns £120.94 Osasuna to draw @ 3.00 Zaragoza to win @ 2.20 Schalke to draw @ 3.20 £5.73 @ 21.12 returns £120.94 Osasuna to draw @ 3.00 Zaragoza to draw @ 3.00 Schalke to win @ 2.00 £6.72 @ 18 returns £120.94 Osasuna to draw @ 3.00 Zaragoza to draw @ 3.00 Schalke to draw @ 3.20 £4.20 @ 28.8 returns £120.94

[Morris]

Re: Not to lose accy's

Bet 5 - Mainz, Hamburg and Sligo not to lose

Returns - 0 Dismal, Sligo get there 1st win at home this season and Vincent Kompany gets sent off for Hamburg as they lose. Just my luck :lol, everything I have backed or even looked at recently has failed misrably. Anyone looking for a decent lay, try tomorrow's selections :nana Bets - 5 Won - 1 Lost - 4 :spank Staked - 250 Returned - 106.61 P/L - - 142.39 :spank

[muchena]

Re: Not to lose accy's hey just waz looking at that not to lose accy plan and was impressed by wat it does and has it worked for u when u placed any bets?