TazaD Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 (Try again Ash! :ok) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Looks like it will be a very quite weekend coming up for me... ...a few totals will hopefully present, but side-wise...end of season sucks. :\ Collingwood have been just awful in the last month (come on you 'Pies out there!!...where's the voice now??!!:zzz :lol)...Melbourne showed something on Saturday, but Bulldogs were without Johnson, and lost Grant and Gia early. I guess Collingwood still deserve to be favs, just because Melbourne are crap!!...but definately couldn't take them as such. How do Carlton lose this one on purpose?? Essendon have fallen right away, and now plan on 'playing youth'. [i sure hope that doesn't mean resting Lucas and Fletcher, or my Dream Team's season is over!] The Blues have been more than competative since Ratten took over, and really, all things being equal they should win this game. Unfortunately, as we know, all things aren't equal. There's a number 1 draft pick (not) to play for here. Wonder what price I can get for them +24.5, 'cause that looks a good thing. Freo crap away from home (and still genuinely crap anywhere really, despite what Ash is hoping for ;) )...Saints much better indoors... ...have only lost 2 of their last 8!, but still some poor results in there...beating Richmond by 8, Carlton by 10 and a draw with the Dogs. Last quarter fade out hurt again on the weekend, so you just can't trust them to put a team away. Freo must be some chance. Just don't like them! :) Sydney have a great record v. Brisbane...and despite the numbers (Brisbane av. 60 I50's per game in last 5!!!) I don't think now their form has been great. Wins over a half strength Eagles, Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood, Kangas all struggling...beaten on the weekend by a solid defensive team. Still, balance that by Sydney's last 5 wins have been over Richmond, Freo (home), Carlton and Melbourne aswell...and snuck by the Saints this week. Odds are pretty right here. I think Swans should start slight favs. West Coast win, but don't tend to hammer teams. Richmond actually have a good record over in the west...but lost their previous 4 games by 53+ points, all to contenders. Not sure the win over Collingwood means much at all. Might get a decent under number given both teams' high flying last month. Hawthorn should win, but 1.50 is a bit tight...actually, no it isn't!...I suspect Hawthorn will win, and 1.50 is pretty fair. Don't think I could take the -15 or so on offer, but combined with Carlton +24.5 should make at least one bet for the weekend worth while! :lol Port (the big finals hope! :eyes) have beaten Essendon, Brisbane (with the worst statistical win just about ever!!), a horribly under-manned Eagles, Melbourne, Richmond and Carlton. Hawks 4 losses in last 10 have all come v. very strong defensive teams (2 of those were without Franklin aswell)...Port certainly aren't. Geelong win, and I guess 1.20 is only fair for a team that's won 14 straight! But, there's every chance the Kangas hang close...they did win the first meeting this season @ Geelong, and also last year @ Canberra as reasonanly big 'dogs. Not all that interested. Speaking of which...Doggies always struggle against the Crows, but Adelaide's form has been ordinary at best. Just 3 wins in their last 10!! Would like to thnk the Dogs will be a lot better with their leading goal kicker back and a full 22 to play with, but couldn't go near them atm...and Adelaide @ 1.20 is a bit of a joke. [i wonder if that's Bjv in the crowd that Foley is poking some fun at ;) ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Those I've met in the past would have been complaining by now "where's Collingwood?" Four I'm eying: Carlton - Don't forget, Essendon have done nothing all season on big grounds (and that includes the fortunate win over Richmond). Sheedy has announced he's going with youth from here (whatever that really means?) Fremantle - Pre Harvey form should be thrown out window - this is last years prelim finalist. Gehrig is stuffed with his injury. Sydney - I believe they'll bring a better game than Kangas, Coll of recent, and shut out Brisbane's game. W Bulldogs - There won't be that much between them for player strength and really Adelaide haven't done much for a while. Never in it to Cats and the Derby was a fair bit about Port. Dogs aren't going well but neither are Adelaide. 4.75 is much too big a price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. And so it appears it was down to two... And this one thinks it's probably best if the other one didn't look too closely at the Doggies! Adelaide were probably a bit stiff last week...got blown out early against the wind, but broke even on I50's for the rest of the game. I can't see anything I like at all!!! Carlton +24.5 is a touch over 1.50...but Thornton is out, (not that he is any godd!!) but looks like they'll be starting a rookie, so Lucas/Lloyd should have a field day. Also Whitnall back...not sure if that's good or bad. Good luck with those pesky Dockers tho mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. A plunge on Carlton as we speak - no surprise really & knew I should have moved on the 2.85 last night :spank. 2.65 now. Might be best to wait on team selections anyway, however motivating factors (believe it or not) are big part of the reason why I believe this is roughly even money. Geelong controlled them in a canter from where I was sitting, Taza. Weren't in the same league. Not saying Adelaide aren't a 1.44 chance, just that I don't see them as a 1.22 chance. A lot depends on what sort of effort the hot & cold Bulldogs bring. They could make a game of it or could get thumped. Waiting on team selections but I'd rather chance a team like that after a cold one and while the price is big. Then again, think I'll pull out a new 20G and just take the Eagles/Crows sure thing double - it definitely couldn't go wrong two weeks in a row :dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. So thats it ... Hird is out. I want to wait and see what kids are played but if this price keeps tumbling ... :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Just posted my Carlton bet at Sports-Punter.com. Maybe it was just coincidence but Gamebookers sure did change their price quickly. Someone elsewhere in this forum was saying how they felt Gamebookers constantly lurk the tipping sites. Still not sure whether to believe it or not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintg1 Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. A plunge on Carlton as we speak - no surprise really & knew I should have moved on the 2.85 last night :spank. 2.65 now. Might be best to wait on team selections anyway, however motivating factors (believe it or not) are big part of the reason why I believe this is roughly even money. Ash, just out of interest, why wouldn't you look at the 1-39 pt option (still at 2.90 on Sportsbet) on the Blues. Can't imagine 40+ being at risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. 3.25 Gamebookers or 3.10 Eskander is best I see on that, saint. Nothing wrong with trying that option, however a blowout is a possibility IMO. I did manage to grab the 2.60 Gamebookers though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Really enjoyed this thread but in the last few weeks it seems to have less posts each week. Where is Ads info? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. On the Freo-Saints match I heard an interesting stat on the radio. Freo has held St Kilda to 9 goals or less in their last five meetings. Hope the info is correct. But it makes Freo all the more appealing if so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. They've certainly got the defenders to sit all over the Saint troublemakers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. On the Freo-Saints match I heard an interesting stat on the radio. Freo has held St Kilda to 9 goals or less in their last five meetings. Hope the info is correct. But it makes Freo all the more appealing if so. Actually, that's totally untrue Chairman. 6.19 when they met this year in Perth...but as you can see, 25 shots...they also had 3 more I50's than Freo. 7.14 last year @ Perth. 13.15 last year @ Tassie. ...anyway, I could go on. :ok The thing that worries me about Freo is in fact their D. Before holding a very poor Essendon to 22 shots, they had allowed 27, 40 and 26 (Harvey era) 22, 34, 31, 31, 27, 28... They allow 29 on the road @ 109ppg. Now, the thing that might save them here is that St. Kilda are the lowest scoring team, Gehrig is stuffed and they only kicked 12.13 v. the defenseless Dogs. It's gunna be close. (Which I guess by default means a play on the 2.20 coin flip is warranted! :spank) How about Melbourne? Nietz's 300th...Pies bring in 5 changes...inc. Rusling!! There has to be a quey over the fitness of a couple of those in's, surely. Showers forecast for tonight...might put a dampener on my 'over' plans...but, might not! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Playing Hawthorn @ 1.61 Had a number I wanted for the over tonight, but it appears everyone else thinks the same and the price is falling! Wait to see what Centrebet offer, but probably best left alone with the forecast anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. The business end of the season has begun, and round 20 looks without doubt the toughest round of the season. Almost impossible to find a winner with confidence and it’s not doing my heart much good, leading one tipping competition by one win and trailing another by one win. I don’t want to become conservative this time of year and continue to apply sound and logical principles to my tipping, but it’s difficult not to take the soft option. The Sunday games are a little more clear-cut, but Saturday is a nightmare. The Pies have turned the fixture from heaven into a fight for their football survival. After looking a top two certainty 6 weeks ago, they have gone about replicating last year’s effort and fallen away at the wrong time of year. And the culprits are the same, the aging, one-paced midfield. They are going to be horribly exposed tonight with Melbourne’s midfield, only missing Bruce, finding form last week and have a habit of blitzing Collingwood in recent times. Jeff White should have a night out with Fraser missing and the legend David Neitz plays his 300th game. Having said all that, the Magpies have to find two wins from somewhere to secure a finals spot, and this is their easiest game in the run home. Rocca and Cloke must impose themselves on this contest and kick 8-10 goals between them for Collingwood to win. The Bombers look to keep the finals dream alive against the Blues. Hird is rushed back into the team, but will be replaced by Watson if he doesn’t come up. The dropping of Hille, Peverill and Dyson is a surprise and hasn’t enhanced their chances of winning too much.The Bombers record at the MCG in the last 18 months is appalling winning 2.5 games out of 14. The Blues form has improved since the Pagan sacking, but still no wins to show for it. Their team is significantly weakened since the last time they played the Bombers with Stevens, Cloke and Thornton missing. At the end of the day, one team needs to win and the other needs to lose. I’ll leave it at that. The Saints have no excuses against the Dockers at the Dome. Only Goddard is missing, they love playing at the Dome and have some scores to settle against the Dockers. The Saints midfield looks strong and should supply Riewoldt and Koschitske adequately. The Dockers have hardly put a foot wrong since Harvey took over with Pavlich, Farmer and Tarrant working well together and Josh Carr and Bell firing in the middle. The Dockers will hang in there for most of the game, but I can’t see the Saints letting this slip. The Lions were tremendous last week bar 20 minutes in the 3rd quarter. Their forward line let them down with not enough support for Brown. They must rectify this if they are to topple the Swans. The midfield will tell the story in this contest with Brisbane’s midfields having more flair, but the Swans have the grunt. With Barry and Kennelly missing, the Swans defence is light on, which highlights the need for Brennan and Copeland to take advantage. In a tight contest, Brisbane will hold on to 8th spot for another week. West Coast should easily account for Richmond at Subiaco with the Tigers down on big man strength. Dean Cox is a must for being dream team captain this week. The Hawks and Port do battle at Launceston, with a big prize for the winner being a certain top four finish. The Power will go into this game with their strongest team all season and will try and run the Hawks off their legs. It’s sure to be a free-flowing game with both teams likely to run with one tagger. Hawthorn’s forwards can certainly take hold of Port’s defence given decent conditions, but Port’s offensive midfield can definitely throw the Hawks of their game. Both teams have a great record at the ground and is the toughest match of the round to tip, but I’ve tipped the Hawks in a tight one. The Kangaroos have the daunting task of stopping the Geelong juggernaut. The Roos couldn’t take advantage of the numerous chances gifted to them last week against the Eagles and come up against a team playing at the top of their game. The Roos just don’t look the same team that thumped the Hawks three weeks ago. The Cats blew off the Crows last week and are taking scalps at will. This week they return to their favourite ground where they punish teams for fun with ease. This will be no exception as the Cats defence will hold the Roos to 12 goals, kick 20+ themselves and win comfortably. The loser of the Adelaide vs. Bulldogs game is done for the year. The Dogs have named their best team in a number of weeks and have the running power to trouble the Crows. However, they haven’t beaten the Crows at AAMI since 2001 and have rarely even threatened them there. The Crows have been disappointing all year and the coach has to carry the can for that. Give them there heads for God’s sake and stop restricting their flair. They can do some damage in September, but they have to get their first. I think it will be a close game, but I don’t see Adelaide losing another game at home. Number of players missing from best 22’s 3 – Port Adelaide 4 – Geelong, Hawthorn, Kangaroos, St.Kilda, Sydney, Western Bulldogs 5 – Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Essendon, West Coast 6 – Carlton, Fremantle 7 – Richmond 8 – Melbourne Score Predictor & MY TIPS COLLINGWOOD 87-76 Melbourne ESSENDON 113-110 Carlton ST.KILDA 105-94 Fremantle WESTCOAST 113-61 Richmond BRISBANE103-91 Sydney HAWTHORN 89-118 Port Adelaide Kangaroos 94-129 GEELONG ADELAIDE91-74 Western Bulldogs Suggested Bets ST.KILDA Line (-8.5) BRISBANE Win GEELONG Points (-27.5) What I enjoy about this forum is the variety of ways people go about picking winners. People point out things that I’ve overlooked or ignored that challenge me and the way I pick winners. We had a great weekend two weeks ago where everyone made a killing. This week we only have 3 people so far offering their opinion over the weekend. The more input we have, the more possibilities we have to make a dollar. Good luck to those having a punt over the weekend, especially those who are expressing their opinions on AFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Collingwood 1.78 @ Lasseters Basically because people are starting to write them off and I think they'll defy the Neitz emotion and bounce back. All the money for Melbourne which means pies are out to a very backable price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Really enjoyed this thread but in the last few weeks it seems to have less posts each week. Where is Ads info?Pete, I'm pretty sure a lot of people have shot themselves, rather than experiencing one more MaCavaney/Swartz commentary. :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Dean Cox is a must for being dream team captain this week. Was my initial pick, but the more I thought about it, the more I think it's too much of an easy game. There's every chance he plays only about 1/2 in the ruck and rest a lot up forward, more-so than last week. I went with Carazzo myself. No Peverill in the team, should be a million possessions out there...and no-one picks up softer ones than the 'raz ;) (You'd have to say Collingwood got mighty lucky in that one!! Melbourne down to 17 fit men at the end and still probably should have won except for some poor kicking at goal. :$) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Essendon v. Carlton over 205.5 (1.90) Seems strangely low!! This could hit 255 easily enough! Freo @ St. Kilda under 181.5 (effectively 2.28) [saver 182-201] Total is inflated by Freo's last 4 games, all of which have gone over 200...but they've kicked a total of 70.42!! 2 pretty poor D's in WC and Essendon...Geelong smacked 140 on them, which the Saints certainly won't, and 227 @ Adelaide but just 52 shots!! Freo have very close stats to the Bulldogs, both away and in their last 5, and the Dogs and Saints combined for just 50 shots and 170 points 2 weeks ago. This one is more about the Saints anyway. Only 3 games in their last 10 have gone 190 or more...Geelong kicked 19.11, Richmond and Carlton! 6 of their last 9 games have been 175 or less. Gehrig hurting will limit their scoring. Their strong defensive midfield should be able to limit the Dockers to a decent score. Just hoping for some "normal" kicking at goal! Tough to see more than 56 shots here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Late Changes Essendon - No change Carlton - Out: Russell In: Bentick St.Kilda - Out: Koschitzke In: M.Clarke Fremantle - Out: Schammer In: Cook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeMMa Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. SYD -5.5 Look too good!!! @ $1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeMMa Posted August 19, 2007 Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Johnno Brown stuffed me up big time :( Looking to make amends with Port +11.5 @ $1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 19, 2007 Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. I believe tempo football stuffed you (and me) DeMMa. Over three minutes to play and Sydney want to say "we've stopped being aggressive, so that's all yours". Sydney had opportunities to attack and get one easy score ... D*** Heads! :@ Adelaide v WBD Highest Scoring Quarter - FIRST QTR, 3.90 @ Lasseters A trend seems to have developed this season where some sides are happy to let it run in the first quarter, then manage things thereafter based on the situation. Bulldogs certainly seem to be one of those teams, with 10.5 of 19 :loon of their matches going high for the first quarter. Adelaide seem willing participants also, with 7.5 of 19 high for the first quarter ... well, you do the math. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 19, 2007 Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Hey Taza! Do you guys have electricity over there or just lanterns and petrol generators? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeMMa Posted August 19, 2007 Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Adelaide -25.5 @ $1.97 - Looks Great! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Hey Taza! Do you guys have electricity over there or just lanterns and petrol generators? :unsure Whyzat mate? Don't tell me we've had another "The man isn't blowing hard enough in the siren" controversy!! Been out all day. Not home now even. Watching Port kick to within a point on the 'net...hold on Hawks!!! :spank Oh, btw...Sydney play 100 minutes of tempo footy don't they? ;) EDIT: **** you Hawks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 19, 2007 Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. 4:30 to go Hawthorn start playing tempo as well as wanting to punch through for a point when have a seven point lead. Once again, as almost always, tempo tactics loses a game ... D*** Heads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 19, 2007 Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Telecast went down ... again! Sydney do do it well but it becomes a momentum/psychology thing at that point. What a horror weekend. Sydney and Hawthorn both crusify my bets. Carlton's big lead disintegrates after Fevola goes down. Freo, well at least they lost it proper. What have you got Bulldogs - how about some tempo with a one goal lead with five to go - could be a nice tactic. ;) :gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted August 19, 2007 Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Pos TeamPlayedWonDrawnLostForAgainst%Points1Geelong20170322961455157682Port Adelaide20130720911852112523West Coast20130719241713112524Hawthorn20120818771647113485Kangaroos20120818651826102486Collingwood20120818351822100487Sydney20111818141528118468St. Kilda201019167417439642 9Brisbane20929182316541104010Adelaide2010010170115771074011Essendon201001019682143914012Western Bulldogs20911019512161903813Fremantle209011202519961013614Melbourne20401616662166761615Carlton20401619802611751616Richmond202117174723437410 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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