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AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th)


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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th)

Overall Standings

#

Team

P

W

L

D

For

Agt

%

Pts

1

Geelong

16

13

3

0

1796

1153

155.8

52

2

Kangaroos

16

11

5

0

1524

1441

105.8

44

3

Hawthorn

16

10

6

0

1490

1305

114.2

40

4

Port Adelaide

16

10

6

0

1660

1530

108.5

40

5

West Coast

16

10

6

0

1433

1330

107.7

40

6

Collingwood

16

10

6

0

1482

1391

106.5

40

7

W.Bulldogs

16

9

7

0

1635

1682

97.21

36

8

Sydney

16

8

8

0

1419

1264

112.3

32

9

Adelaide

16

8

8

0

1346

1219

110.4

32

10

Essendon

16

8

8

0

1600

1671

95.75

32

11

St Kilda

16

8

8

0

1287

1379

93.33

32

12

Brisbane

16

7

8

1

1443

1380

104.6

30

13

Fremantle

16

7

9

0

1593

1556

102.4

28

14

Carlton

16

4

12

0

1582

2146

73.72

16

15

Melbourne

16

3

13

0

1329

1723

77.13

12

16

Richmond

16

1

14

1

1404

1853

75.77

6

Match Totals

Quarters

Halves

#

Team

W

L

D

WR%

W

L

D

WR%

1

Geelong

47

16

1

73

25

6

1

78

2

Kangaroos

38

24

2

59

18

14

0

56

3

Hawthorn

33

30

1

52

18

11

3

56

4

Port Adelaide

34

28

2

53

16

16

0

50

5

West Coast

34

28

2

53

20

10

2

63

6

Collingwood

34

28

2

53

16

14

1

52

7

W.Bulldogs

27

34

3

42

12

19

1

38

8

Sydney

33

29

2

52

21

10

1

66

9

Adelaide

34

29

1

53

17

14

1

53

10

Essendon

29

35

0

45

14

17

1

44

11

St Kilda

30

31

3

47

14

18

0

44

12

Brisbane

32

32

0

50

14

18

0

44

13

Fremantle

30

32

2

47

17

14

1

53

14

Carlton

18

46

0

28

9

23

0

28

15

Melbourne

25

37

2

39

9

23

0

28

16

Richmond

21

40

3

33

9

23

0

28

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th)

Quarter Averages

For

Against

Team

¼

½

¾

FT

¼

½

¾

FT

1

Geelong

32

28

26

26

18

18

17

19

2

Kangaroos

28

22

23

23

20

22

18

31

3

Hawthorn

19

23

26

25

21

22

20

18

4

Port Adelaide

27

25

30

22

26

24

21

25

5

West Coast

25

22

21

22

20

19

24

19

6

Collingwood

22

26

22

22

24

21

23

19

7

W.Bulldogs

29

23

24

27

34

21

24

26

8

Sydney

21

20

20

27

24

19

20

16

9

Adelaide

24

20

20

20

18

20

21

17

10

Essendon

25

24

25

26

22

30

29

23

11

St Kilda

20

21

22

18

24

18

22

22

12

Brisbane

22

21

25

22

23

20

21

22

13

Fremantle

25

23

26

26

26

19

28

25

14

Carlton

28

22

29

21

31

32

34

37

15

Melbourne

19

19

21

24

29

28

25

25

16

Richmond

25

20

20

24

29

25

31

31

Scoring Statistics

Avg Score

Avg Margin

Total Score

Round Total

Team

For

Agt

Win

Lose

High

Low

High

Low

1

Geelong

112

72

53

13

222

69

3

0

2

Kangaroos

95

90

22

31

147

54

1

1

3

Hawthorn

93

82

34

26

180

31

1

2

4

Port Adelaide

104

96

33

34

155

60

1

0

5

West Coast

90

83

32

36

137

62

0

1

6

Collingwood

93

87

19

17

122

64

2

0

7

W.Bulldogs

102

105

23

37

141

57

1

1

8

Sydney

89

79

33

14

162

44

1

1

9

Adelaide

84

76

32

16

110

57

0

1

10

Essendon

100

104

19

27

127

74

0

0

11

St Kilda

80

86

26

38

125

43

0

5

12

Brisbane

90

86

46

32

163

35

2

2

13

Fremantle

100

97

33

22

173

58

2

0

14

Carlton

99

134

17

53

141

39

3

2

15

Melbourne

83

108

18

34

124

57

0

1

16

Richmond

88

116

49

36

124

65

0

0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th)

Margin Breakdown - Basic

U 15.5

O 15.5

U 39.5

O 39.5

Team

W

L

W

L

W

L

W

L

1

Geelong

1

1

12

2

5

3

8

0

2

Kangaroos

2

1

9

4

10

3

1

2

3

Hawthorn

2

1

8

5

8

5

2

1

4

Port Adelaide

2

0

8

6

6

5

4

1

5

West Coast

4

1

6

5

7

5

3

1

6

Collingwood

3

3

7

3

10

6

0

0

7

W.Bulldogs

1

2

8

5

9

4

0

3

8

Sydney

1

3

7

5

5

8

3

0

9

Adelaide

1

3

7

5

6

8

2

0

10

Essendon

5

1

3

7

7

7

1

1

11

St Kilda

1

1

7

7

6

4

2

4

12

Brisbane

1

1

6

7

3

6

4

2

13

Fremantle

1

3

6

6

4

8

3

1

14

Carlton

2

1

2

11

4

5

0

7

15

Melbourne

1

4

2

9

3

6

0

7

16

Richmond

0

2

1

12

0

10

1

4

Margin Breakdown - Detailed

1-19 pts

20-39 pts

40-59 pts

60+ pts

Team

W

L

W

L

W

L

W

L

1

Geelong

3

2

2

1

4

0

4

0

2

Kangaroos

5

2

5

1

0

1

1

1

3

Hawthorn

2

4

6

1

1

0

1

1

4

Port Adelaide

5

0

1

5

3

1

1

0

5

West Coast

4

1

3

4

0

0

3

1

6

Collingwood

5

5

5

1

0

0

0

0

7

W.Bulldogs

2

2

7

2

0

2

0

1

8

Sydney

2

7

3

1

2

0

1

0

9

Adelaide

3

4

3

4

1

0

1

0

10

Essendon

5

2

2

5

0

1

1

0

11

St Kilda

3

1

3

3

2

3

0

1

12

Brisbane

1

1

2

5

3

1

1

1

13

Fremantle

2

4

2

4

2

1

1

0

14

Carlton

3

3

1

2

0

1

0

6

15

Melbourne

2

4

1

2

0

5

0

2

16

Richmond

0

5

0

5

1

3

0

1

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AFL Football Rd. 17. ok...off the bat (er ball?) to me this looks like a really shitty week to get involved in... I couldn't possibly take the Eagles as big road favs... The av. -4 I50's per game on the road this season, and their once great D has totally disappeared...allowing a shot every 1.74 entries!!! (4th worst behind Carlton, Ess and Melbourne!!) I kow you can argue their last 2 losses were due to being very undermanned, but still...4 wins in their last 10, and only 1 on the road...in Adelaide where they had 3 less I50's and just one more shot. The problem here is obviously the Dogs. No Cross, Griffen, Hahn, Gilbee...West? Gunna make it very tough. Even tho I made a decent case for them scoring well last week (You should have listened Ash ;) LOL!!) ...Geelong av. +10 I50's and defense of 2.72... ...On Friday they were +12 and 2.89. So, given the Eagles are -4 and 1.74... Dogs lost by just 15 @ Perth this year, and their last 2 meetings outside Perth have been Dogs win by 43 @ 2.40, and lost by 7 at the dome as 2.30 'dogs...winning both ats. Reasonably big lean towards Doggies + the points...but will probably wimp out!! Bloody coaching changes...Carlton av'ing 37 shots against in last 5 games!!...61 I50's (-12), the worst D by a fair way... Saints allow 23 shots both at the dome and in their last 5... Saints have won last 5 meetings by 43, 92, 80, 108, 91... You'd have to take St. Kilda -40ish wouldn't you?? Freo/Geelong...Geelong deserve to start favs in all their games, no doubt. Think Freo might be getting a bit too much respect after last week...good win, but -7 I50's and the same amount of shots, just rediculously good conversion made them look far better. Their form is still shit...statistically lucky wins over Crows and St. Kilda (even Hawthorn), and then beaten Richmond and Carlton. Still, how much has Harvey changed their outlook? Million dollar question. Geelong won by 66 over there last year...1.60 looks pretty good really. I might be more tempted by the total tho. Collingwood should win, and 1.35 looks decent. Brisbane have flogged Melbourne and Carlton...caught West Coast at a VERY good time, before that hadn't won a game for nearly 2 months. Brown kicks 10 this week...now he's up against the 2nd best D in the comp. Won't happen again. In fact, their last 4 games have been against 4 of the bottom 6 (inc. the bottom 3) for defense! Always tough to take the Pies on a decent spread, given their poor conversion, but I can't see them dropping this game. Might hold out for 1.40 somewhere hopefully. Will again be interested in a total I reckon... Yeah, yeah. Swans win, but a bit untouchable at 1.10 -40ish no doubt. Sydney hae won and covered 8 of their last 9 at home, winning by an av. of 45... Kangas midfield has gone from strength to strength lately. They are now the 3rd best defensive group...allow just 47 I50's in theri last 5...Hawthorn still best @ 46. Points to a low scorer, but given it's in Launceston, I'm sure the books will have a nice low number in mind anyway. Tough to pick a winner...home ground to Hawthorn, but Kangas won in Geelong and Gold Coast already this year. Hoping for a total around the 175 mark, don't reckon I'll get it. Crows certainly interest me @ 1.60+. Essendon have fallen right away lately. Won just 1 of their last 5...and they got lucky in that one v. Melbourne. Only Richmond and Carlton have worse I50 numbers in their last 5 (Essendon -8)...also 3rd worst D behind Melbourne and Carlton (1.73) allowing 33 shots per game. Even inside the dome this season they av. -6 I50's Crows been better away from home this season, play a more open game, but still play solid D, alloing just 22 shots per game...down to 21 in their last 5. Would love to see Rutten back...Lloyd/Lucas could go ok without him there, but the midfield should get over-run anyway. All the talk about Adelaide having NEVER beaten the Bombers in Melbourne is totally irrelevant...they haven't met there since 2002, and I doubt Adelaide were ever priced better than 3.00! Crows have won 7 of last 9 @ the dome...think they win this one too. Now, this is the game that I'm having the most trouble with!! I did all the stats, came to the (pretty easy, let's be honest!) conclusion that Port would win...looked at the odds to see them 1.15ish!!!! :eek You what now?? They beat Richmond...lost 4 straight (inc. Carlton), beat Essendon with ONE more scoring shot...won @ Brisbane with 13 less I50's and 3 less shots...lost to the Doggies, got West Coast with 24 fit men and beat Richmond again!! 1.15??!! Of course, the problem being I guess, that Melbourne are comparable to Richmond. Even tho Melborne have fallen away, they still av. just -5 I50's last 5, and a D of 1.72...Port's is an unspectacular 1.90... Some very straight kicking has padded Port's margins too...at home they av. +6 shots, +5 in their last 5... Almost will be tempted by +33ish...having said that, it's almost impossible to jump on Melbourne given they have lost theri last 5 @ AAMI by 72, 73 (PA), 62 (PA), 54 and 58. Like the Crows, probably Collingwood aswell...and will be sweating on 3 totals... ...oh, and the two 'dogs that could both realistically get SMASHED!! :unsure

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Finals Contenders form against teams in the Top 8

Team

Wins

Losses

%

Geelong

5

3

63%

Roos

3

4

43%

Hawks

5

2

71%

Power

2

4

33%

Eagles

5

3

63%

Pies

2

5

29%

Dogs

4

4

50%

Swans

3

5

38%

Crows

5

3

63%

Bombers

2

7

22%

Saints

4

5

44%

Lions

2

7

22%

Freo

1

7

13%

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Working purely off team’s averages for and against for the season, and then averaging for and against for each team. If each team scores their average score for and against then this will be the result

For

Agst

Average

Bulldogs

102

105

93

Eagles

90

83

98

Carlton

99

134

93

St Kilda

80

86

107

Fremantle

100

97

86

Geelong

112

72

105

Pies

93

87

90

Brisbane

90

86

89

Sydney

89

79

103

Richmond

88

116

84

Hawks

93

82

92

Roos

95

90

89

Essendon

100

104

88

Adelaide

84

76

94

Port

104

96

106

Melbourne

83

108

90

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Just got Melbourne @ +42.5!! (Global) Crazy line. Mad. Insane...Probably a loser, but still, quite unfathomable!! (Prepared to take the Doggies +21.5 too. Will wait for Pinnacle or the Global 1.95 Friday line.)

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Another one bites the dust..... Kevin Sheedy's contract won't be renewed, but will coach out the season. This will be a positive for the Bombers, and I think the Bombers will finish the season well and start by brushing aside the Crows.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Global 1.95's are up. Call me crazy, but almost certain to see some resistance from the blues. Carlton +42.5 @ 1.95 Global Freo and Kangaroos are dead set even money shots IMO. Could be swayed into the price on Essendon pending final squads.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Not sure if you want to get 'resistance' and 'mega-flooding' confused, Ash! :lol I'll be looking at a total in that game for sure. Blues almost certain to give up their free-flowing, one way running ways, and try at least to hold St. Kilda to a half decent score. They will of course have trouble scoring themselves... ...oh despite Pagan's final act of head coach, of performing thigh replacement surgury on the ailing Fev. :eyes:wall (What a joke that man is quickly becoming...) Will be tempted by an under tonight too if it's a stupidly high total...always a chance in Doggies games... Still have some slight misgivings about taking the points tonight, but numbers suggest it's more than a fair thing. I've gone off Adelaide aswell...not so much the coach thing, but Rutten still out...and Winderlich coming back in for the 'Dons gives them some run and spark. Oh, mate, if you're offering Geelong at evens, sign me up!! :cheers PS. Why do Global make it quite clear that the 1.95 lines are from 10 am -10 pm only, then put them up way earlier? I've been wondering for a while...do they then not pay the full price if you take the bet outside the hours??

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Was hoping for a few more points myself, DeMMa...around the 217 mark...but that's just me being a bit conservative since I'm already on a side. Can't really comment...Eagles don't score well away, but half the reason I'm on the Dogs is because the Eagles D suddenly sucks... I see Global now has them down to +20.5, can't be a bad thing. (Still plenty of 21.5's out there.)

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Bulldogs v Eagles

Tonight is a great opportunityfor the Dogs to exert some pressure on the top 6 by knocking over the Eagles. They’ve lost some key players, but have enough talent to threaten the visitors. They need a decent start (unlike last week), and average 27 points at the Dome in 1st quarters whilst the Eagles are usually slow starters away from Subiaco. I’m not getting carried away with the Eagles yet after falling over the line against an ordinary Swans outfit. Brad Johnson shoulders the responsibility once more to kick a bag and desperately needs some support from Darcy, Higgins and Murphy. The Eagles have the midfield depth to stretch the Dogs and Dean Cox should dominate this game. I fancy the Eagles, but it shall be close.

Dockers v Cats

There has been a lot of support for the Dockers to topple the Cats here with plenty of justification. They’ve been better than the formline suggests culminating in their terrific win in Adelaide. Their last home game against the Kangaroos was a cracker and copped too much flak for their defeat Both teams were great that day and the Roos were lucky enough to be in front at the siren. Geelong’s midfield will severely test them with plenty of leg speed and precise field kicking, something the Dockers lack. The Dockers scoring has lifted recently, but comes up against the best defence in the business. The Cats might have a slight drop off for this game, but should extinguish the Dockers finals hopes.

Magpies v Lions

The hard working Pies will face a rejuvenated Brisbane team making a late bid for September action. The Pies output each week is very consistent and will need to continue to match the Lions’ midfield in good form. Brown will pose some headaches, but Prestigiacomo or Wakelin will make his life difficult. Cloke has been in good form for the Pies and is the key for the Pies. Pies are only averaging 90 points at the MCG in their last 4 games whilst the Lions are averaging only 67 points away from home in their last 4 games. The Pies need to keep winning for the coveted top 2 finish and should win comfortably.

Hawthorn v Kangaroos

Big game in Launceston which could send the loser into a tailspin and out of top 4 contention. The Hawks were down a little last week against a St.Kilda team with it’s best team on the field for 3 years. A few shocking errors cost Hawthorn dearly through the middle stages of the match and a lot of their key runners were subdued for a lot of the night. To their credit, they finished the match well and caused some nervous moments for the Saints. The Kangaroos are in terrific form, beating teams outside the top 8, but face their stiffest test for 6 weeks. There is little between the 2 teams and the defence that performs best will win. I fancy the Hawks to continue their winning ways in Tassie, in a tight ,close-checking contest.

Essendon v Adelaide

The loser of this faces an uphill battle to make the finals. The Crows have their last 6 games against finals challengers, whilst the Bombers still have 2 trips to Perth to make, but have 2 games against tankers. The power forwards from both teams hold the key to the result of this game. McGregor and Stevens will have to mind Lloyd and Lucas, whilst Perrie, Welsh and Bock will match-up on Fletcher, McPhee and Michael. The Crows clearly have the better midfield, but their forwards never seem to capitalize on that dominance. Lloyd and Lucas are more efficient and probably won’t get the supply the Crows will. Having said that, if the Crows couldn’t beat the Saints 2 weeks ago, I find it hard to select them to beat the Bombers with all the emotions of the past week at Windy Hill.

Number of players missing from best 22’s

2 – Geelong 3 – Hawthorn, Kangaroos, St.Kilda, Sydney 4 – Essendon 5 – Collingwood, Port Adelaide, West Coast 6 – Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle 7 – Richmond 8 – Melbourne, Western Bulldogs

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

Western Bulldogs 92-82 WEST COAST Carlton 74-120 ST.KILDA Fremantle 96-111 GEELONG COLLINGWOOD 87-83 Brisbane

SYDNEY 111-72 Richmond

HAWTHORN 97-87 Kangaroos

ESSENDON 83-88 Adelaide PORT ADELAIDE 135-71 Melbourne

Suggested Bets

Most Disposals – D.Kerr v B.Cousins D.KERR HAWTHORN Margin 1-39 ESSENDON Win Good luck everyone.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles The Eagles returned to form last week with a solid win over Sydney, that form was largely attributed to the brilliant return of former captain Ben Cousins collecting 38 disposals and key forward Ashley Hansen booting 4 goals in his return game. Cousins & Hansen are very important players and were well missed, and with these two back combining with the likes of Chris Judd and Daniel Kerr, the Eagles look like making a late charge towards a top 2 assault. The Bulldogs on the other hand have had a very inconistent season to date and last week picked up alot of injuries to key players. With the Eagles having to travel to Melbourne, they will be happy with any win and considering 7 of their 10 wins wins have been under the 39.5 point margin, the $2.25 on offer at Sportingbet is good value. Pick West Coast Win Under 39.5 at $2.25

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Tredrea in doubt. Yes, it could be the time to take on the under with Carlton. Yeah, they usually put the 1.95's up late Thursday night but some sort of covering themselves with the 10-10 statement. :unsure Heard from a good source earlier today that both Judd and Cousins are in serious doubt. Anyone know more? Ash.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) I know that even without those two things would still have been very ugly indeed. Nasty old night in this huosehold I can assure you... Brisbane @ Collingwood under 188.5 is a play (1.90 @ Global) I wanted 181, so happy here. Waiting for a Geelong/Freo total, but looks like some rain might be in the air over there, so not all that hopeful...

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Oh yes, meant to ask last night. What's that little bit of business out the back Harbrow's head? Usually if a couple of guys in a team have one of those rat tails, then you know they're tough. That thing was sticking out, and bleached. :unsure

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) It's certainly not an excess of talent... Can get 2.50 for under 183.5 @ Centrebet tonight!! Huge. Pity I rushed in and missed out. Oh well, heading out for a night on the town... I'd pray for the under, but looks like the big guy has his hands full with other requests ;) Oh, and Ash...PM me and I'll shoot you my address...so you know where to send the 4-figure cheque after you offered up those evens on Geelong...

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Been watching the Pies/Lions game till half time and what a phenomenal performance by Brisbane. They have showed the Pies up in so many areas it is not funny. Lions are not going to lose this so checked scores on the radio and they are 70 points up at the moment. Brisbane's hardness at the ball has shown up the Pies squibs again, a bit like their 3rd grand Final win over the Pies. Same culprits too in Didak and Lonie, and a handful of others who do not want to go when it is their turn. Brisbane look awesome running through the corridor and when it is their turn to defend they have been getting back in numbers. Disappointing effort by the Pies and their percentage is going to take a hammering. Pies have played some great football this year, but this is not one of their finest hours. Considering Brisbane is thumping them and they have lost to 5 teams in the 8, they will not be a force in the finals even if they make it. As for Geelong, maybe people will take them seriously now after the way they disposed of Fremantle in Perth. They average 26+ per quarter and concede less than 19 points per quarter. As Taza said they are leading in almost every stat that is available, and hard to see anyone seriously challenging them come September, providing they can keep players free from injury. Although the Eagles with a full compliment of players will be hard to beat. Great football played tonight by Brisbane and also great to watch, even though they did it to my team :$ On a funny note...On the radio they were talking about what this would do for Brisbane's percentage, but considering the Lions have had a draw, it won't make any difference unless they are level on points with Richmond come finals time :lol

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Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Pies will bounce back! Plenty to learn tonight for our youngsters. Lions have a lot of big bodied players who carved us up tonight. Besides, Carlton don't want to win another game so they get number 1 draft pick. Brisbane looked gone a month ago, then they had that brilliant win over the Eagles. On that game, and on their form tonight, if they get into the Final 8 they will be a team to be reckoned with. Scintillating display tonight and easily the best team Collingwood has played from my point of view, looked unstoppable. I'm glad AFL games are not 6 quarters or could have been even more embarrassing. Brisbane have been beating us for many years, and some teams just have the wood on you. I'm not worried about tonight's loss, sometimes teams just have a blinder, and Brisbane did. Collingwood has a good run home in the final rounds, and Lions were always going to be a concern cos we always struggle to beat them. getting belted though is not a good thing.

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