jonnyb1978 Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 Thought i would try this out for you people to see if its any good. Its only a paper trial so im not sure whether it will work or not. The idea is to lay 4 horses at around 5/1 that are around the top 3 favourites of the race meaning they have a good chance of winning and a good chance of losing. Aswell as laying them i will do a combination of doubles so that if 2 or more horses win then i have have a chance to reduce my losses or profit. The system will have to be based long term (ish) as if 1 horse actual win then i will lose a considerable amount of money as will lose the liability in the lay and also wont get a double bet.. Im hoping that getting a double and occasion 3 horses that win (3 doubles) will offset what losses i have occured when only 1 horse wins. Hence over a lond period of time. I will start with a £500 and a spare £500 to start with incase of losses at the begining and i aim to make 1.5% a day based over a week. For example over 7 days i aim to have in my bank £550 but not necessary meet the daily target. If i have reached my target then i might take a few days off. As my bank increase so will my bets. (Well thats the idea anyway) Here goes. 14.30 Ascot Lay Hearthstead maison. Liability 97.20 to win 18 Back in double @ 6.2 15.05 Ascot Lay Salford Mill. Liability 98.00 to win 20 Back in double @ 5.8 15.45 Ascot Lay Mi Emma. Liability 98.00 to win 20 Back in double @ 5.7 16.20 Ascot Lay Emirates Skyline. Liability 98.00 to win 20 Back in double @ 5.8 Total liability = £391.20 + 6 doubles @ £10 each = Total £451.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Welcome to PL Jonny. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 22, 2007 Author Share Posted June 22, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Thanks Paul. Just hope this works for a while as its my first post.lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 22, 2007 Author Share Posted June 22, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Quick update. 14.30 Ascot Lay Hearthstead maison. Liability 97.20 to win 18 LAY:ok Back in double @ 6.2 15.05 Ascot Lay Salford Mill. Liability 98.00 to win 20 LAY:ok Back in double @ 5.8 15.45 Ascot Lay Mi Emma. Liability 98.00 to win 20 LAY:ok Back in double @ 5.7 16.20 Ascot Lay Emirates Skyline. Liability 98.00 to win 20 LAY:ok Back in double @ 5.8 Total return from all 4 lays £78 - 5% commission = £74.10 Loss of £60 from 6 doubles. Total Profit today £14.10 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £14.10 (2.82%) Book = 514.10 (Plus reserve of £500) Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinTHFC Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Hi Jonny, Nice start. Have you done the maths for which combination of results gives the best profit? Kevin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 22, 2007 Author Share Posted June 22, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Not looked into it too much but there are a number of combinations that will yield a profit and only one that should give a loss. A considerable one at that. 1. All the lay bets are successful. As above but with 6 doubles also that will lose. It will still profit but only about 3% of the book. 2. The same goes if 2 lays come up and 2 horses win. This will give a double and so at the right price horses (around 5/1) this should give a profit of around 7% of the book. 3. If one horse wins. This is the one to avoid as i will lose the liability of one of the lays which is around 20% of the book and will not get any doubles. This is why i have a reserve incase i have a few of these early on. 4. If 3 horses win then i get 3 doubles up and should give a profit of over 60% of the book and if 4 horses win, using day 1 prices as an example i would lose roughly £400 on the liability but gain 6 doubles of around £240 each so quids in with approximately 150% profit but obviously these wont come around to often. I am hoping to avoid the one horse win but i will obviously get them and the idea is to offset those losses if 3 or 4 horses win. Hope this helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 22, 2007 Author Share Posted June 22, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Day 2 selections. I would normally wait until tomorrow to get a better price once the market has been established, however work commitments mean i cant always post when i would like to. The folllowing price are currently available at Betfair at time of writing 14.20 Ascot Lay DOUBLE ATTACK liability 100 to win 20 Back in double 5.9 16.25 Ascot Lay ZIDANE liability 98.60 to win 17 Back in double 6.6 17.00 Ascot Lay SCRIPTWRITER liability 100 to win 20 Back in double 5.8 17.35 Ascot Lay VINANDO liabilty 96 to win 16 Back in double 5.8 Total Liability = £394.60 + 6 doubles @ £10 =£454.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Results after Day 2 14.20 Ascot Lay DOUBLE ATTACK liability 100 to win 20 LAY:ok Back in double 5.9 16.25 Ascot Lay ZIDANE liability 98.60 to win 17 LAY:ok Back in double 6.6 17.00 Ascot Lay SCRIPTWRITER liability 100 to win 20 LAY:ok Back in double 5.8 17.35 Ascot Lay VINANDO liabilty 96 to win 16 LAY:ok Back in double 5.8 Total return from all 4 lays = £73 - 5% commission =£69.35 Loss of 6 doubles @ £10 each Total profit today = £9.35 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £23.45 Old Book = £ 514.10 Book = 523.45 (Plus reserve of £500) Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted June 24, 2007 Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! fun fun fun fun fun fun fun fun fun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 24, 2007 Author Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! So far so good Day 3 selections 15.40 pontefract PEPPERTREE LANE lay £102.90 to win £21 back in double 5.6 16.40 ponte DJALABAD lay £102.60 win £19 back 5.9 17.10 ponte MAIA lay £101.20 win £22 back 5.5 15.00 warwick GILDED COVE £98.80 win £18 back 5.8 6 doubles @ £10 each Total liability £405.50 + 6 doubles @ 10 = 465.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 24, 2007 Author Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Another successful day of lays. 15.40 pontefract PEPPERTREE LANE lay £102.90 to win £21 LAY :ok back in double 5.6 16.40 ponte DJALABAD lay £102.60 win £19 LAY:ok back 5.9 17.10 ponte MAIA lay £101.20 win £22 back 5.5 LAY:ok 15.00 warwick GILDED COVE £98.80 win £18 LAY:ok back 5.8 Total return from all 4 lays = £80 - 5% commission =£76 Loss of 6 doubles @ £10 each Total profit today = £16.00 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £39.45 Old Book = £ 523.45 Book = 539.45 (Plus reserve of £500) increase of 3.05% Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 25, 2007 Author Share Posted June 25, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Day 4 Selections 14.30 Mussle Lay Firewalker. Liability £105 to win £21 Back in double 5.9 15.30 Mussle Lay Tough Love. Liability £104 to win £20 Back in double 6.0 14.45 Wolv Lay Royal Orrisa. Liability £104 to win £20 Back in double 6.0 15.15 Wolv Lay Totally Free. Liability 101.20 to win £23 Back in double @5.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 25, 2007 Author Share Posted June 25, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! I forgot to include the 6 doubles above in my last post. 14.30 Mussle Lay Firewalker. Liability £105 to win £21 LAY:ok Back in double 5.9 15.30 Mussle Lay Tough Love. Liability £104 to win £20 LAY:ok Back in double 6.0 14.45 Wolv Lay Royal Orrisa. Liability £104 to win £20 LAY:ok Back in double 6.0 15.15 Wolv Lay Totally Free. Liability 101.20 to win £23 LAY:ok Back in double @5.3 Total return from all 4 lays = £84 - 5% commission =£79.80 Loss of 6 doubles @ £10 each Total profit today = £19.80 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £59.25 Old Book = £ 539.45 Book = 559.25 (Plus reserve of £500) increase of 3.67% Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit Im wishing i had not done the 6 doubles now as i would have a profit of around £320. I had trialled just doing lays using 6/7 races and although started off ok i always had some winners which soon put me at a loss. Anyway i will stick with this method for now as the trick is not to be greedy and see how things go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 25, 2007 Author Share Posted June 25, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Day 5 Selections of night time racing 18.40 Windsow Lay Etain liability 102.90 to win 21 Back in double 5.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 25, 2007 Author Share Posted June 25, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! I had to include the above on its own as their under orders soon so my 4 selectons are 18.40 Windsow Lay Etain liability 102.90 to win 21 Back in double 5.9 19.10 Windsor Lay Relative Order liability 104.40 to win 18 Back in double 6.6 19.40 Windsor Lay Yereven liability 102.00 to win 15 Back in double 7.6 20.10 Windsor Lay Fifty Cents liability 103.20 to win 24 Back in double 5.2 Total Liability £412.20 + 6 doubles @ 10 = £472.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 25, 2007 Author Share Posted June 25, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Not a good night as the 1 horse actual won meaning i lost the lay and the doubles. 18.40 Windsow Lay Etain liability 102.90 to win 21 BACK :wall Back in double 5.9 19.10 Windsor Lay Relative Order liability 104.40 to win 18 LAY:ok Back in double 6.6 19.40 Windsor Lay Yereven liability 102.00 to win 15 LAY:ok Back in double 7.6 20.10 Windsor Lay Fifty Cents liability 103.20 to win 24 Non Runner Back in double 5.2 Total return from all 2 lays = £33 - 5% commission =£31.35 Return from 1 double @ 5.9 and NR = £59 Loss of 5 doubles @ £10 each Loss of 1 lay @ £102.90 Total profit today = £-62.90 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £-3.65 Old Book = £ 559.25 Book = 496.35 (Plus reserve of £500) loss of 11.24% Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit Successful run comes to an end. Im sticking with this to as i was expecting a loss sooner or later and this is the idea of the system as hopefully soon i will get 2 winners which will offset this loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 26, 2007 Author Share Posted June 26, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Todays selections are 15.00 Brighton Lay Voive mail liability £110.20 to win £19 Bck in double 6.2 15.30 Brighton Lay Recalicitrant liability £80 to win £20 Back in doubkle 5 16.30 Brighton Lay Purus liability £102.60 to win £19 Back in double 6.2 17.00 Brighton Lay Cosmic Destiny £78 to win £20 Back in double 4.8 One thing i have noticed during this is that it has been very wastful doing the doubles so far. I tried this system a while ago based on every race in the race card and it started very well i found i was getting at least one winner if not two and was soon running at a loss. Maybe with only the 4 horses that i am doing now i may avoid getting these winners. From this system i have only had one winner and if i ignored the doubles i would have a profit of £227.70 so from now on i will also include the profit i would have if i did not do any doubles, and compare each result weekly on my target date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinTHFC Posted June 26, 2007 Share Posted June 26, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Interesting thread jonny. Always a good idead to keep an eye on the 'what ifs' Kevin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 26, 2007 Author Share Posted June 26, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Another day that has not gone to plan with the 1 winner (Purus).Still we gone on. Hopefully i can pick 2 winners in the next day or so. 15.00 Brighton Lay Voive mail liability £110.20 to win £19 Lay:ok Bck in double 6.2 15.30 Brighton Lay Recalicitrant liability £80 to win £20 lay:ok 3rd Back in doubkle 5 16.30 Brighton Lay Purus liability £102.60 to win £19 won:wall Back in double 6.2 17.00 Brighton Lay Cosmic Destiny £78 to win £20 lay:ok 3rd Back in double 4.8 Total return from all 3 lays = £59 - 5% commission =£56.55 Loss of 6 doubles @ £10 each Loss of 1 lay @ £102.60 Total profit today = £-106.05 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £-109.40 Old Book = £ 496.35 Book = 390.30 (Plus reserve of £500) Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit What profit would be if no doubles involved = £181.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 26, 2007 Author Share Posted June 26, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! 26th June Night time selections Newbury 19.35 Lay Muthabara. Liability £104.40 to win 18 Back in double 6.2 20.05 Lay Propaganda. Liability £68.20 to win 22 Back in double 4.0 20.35 Lay Gullwing. Liability £84 to win 20 Back in double 5.1 21.10 Lay Malapropism. Liability £86 to win 20 Back in double 5.2 6 doubles @ £10 each Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 26, 2007 Author Share Posted June 26, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! A good start runs into a rubbish last few days. 19.35 Lay Muthabara. Liability £104.40 to win 18 WON:wall Back in double 6.2 20.05 Lay Propaganda. Liability £68.20 to win 22 LAY:ok 3RD Back in double 4.0 20.35 Lay Gullwing. Liability £84 to win 20 LAY:ok 3RD Back in double 5.1 21.10 Lay Malapropism. Liability £86 to win 20 LAY:ok 3RD Back in double 5.2 Total return from all 3 lays = £62 - 5% commission =£58.90 Loss of 6 doubles @ £10 each Loss of 1 lay @ £104.40 Total profit today = £-105.50 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £-214.9 Old Book = £ 390.30 Book = 284.8 (Plus reserve of £500) Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit What profit would be if no doubles involved = £136.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 26, 2007 Author Share Posted June 26, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Not doing very well so far so thank god its only a paper trial. Im taking a few positive notes from this tho, to hopefully modify the system as thats what trialling is all about. Few points im keeping an eye on is the profit i would have without the doubles. 3 Horses have won in the last 3 days losing me a combined liability of £309.90 yet i would still remain in profit by £136.15. Also the last 2 sets of bets, out of 8 horses 7 have all been placed. If this continues maybe i could look at place doubles instead. Worth a thought!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 27, 2007 Author Share Posted June 27, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Todays selections 14.00 Lay Feisty Royale liability £74 to win £20 Back in double 4.6 14.30 Lay Liberty Ship Liability £100 to win £20 Back in double 5.9 15.30 Lay Regents secret Liability £74 to win £20 Back in double 4.6 17.00 Lay Namir Liability £88 to win £20 Back in double 5. 6 doubles @ £10 each Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 27, 2007 Author Share Posted June 27, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Will update next post after these night time selections. 19.40 Bath Lay Indian Edge. Liability 90.20 to win £22 Back in double 4.9 19.50 Kemp Lay Mujood. Liability £99 to win £22 Back in double 5.4 20.20 Kemp Lay Wild Fell. Liability £98 to win £20 Back in double 5.8 20.40 Bath Lay Mirthful. Liability £98 to win £20 Back in double 5.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 27, 2007 Author Share Posted June 27, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! 14.00 Lay Feisty Royale liability £74 to win £20 LAY:ok Back in double 4.6 14.30 Lay Liberty Ship Liability £100 to win £20 LAY:ok Back in double 5.9 15.30 Lay Regents secret Liability £74 to win £20 LAY:ok Back in double 4.6 17.00 Lay Namir Liability £88 to win £20 LAY:ok Back in double 5. Total return from all 4 lays = £80 - 5% commission =£76.00 Loss of 6 doubles @ £10 each Total profit today £16 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £-199.20 Old Book = £ 284.80 Book = 300.80 (Plus reserve of £500) Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit What profit would be if no doubles involved = £212.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 27, 2007 Author Share Posted June 27, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! 19.40 Bath Lay Indian Edge. Liability 90.20 to win £22 LAY:ok Back in double 4.9 19.50 Kemp Lay Mujood. Liability £99 to win £22 LAY:ok Back in double 5.4 20.20 Kemp Lay Wild Fell. Liability £98 to win £20 WON IN DOUBLE:ok Back in double 5.8 20.40 Bath Lay Mirthful. Liability £98 to win £20 WON IN DOUBLE:ok Back in double 5.8 Total return from all lays = £44.00 - 5% commission =£41.80 Loss of 2 liabilities = £196 Loss of 5 doubles = £50 Return from 1 double = £336.40 Total profit today £132.2 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £-67.00 Old Book = £ 300.80 Book = £433 (Plus reserve of £500) Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit What profit would be if no doubles involved = £57.95 A good recovery today but am still down overall. Hopefully tomorrow will see me back in profit. This is the fun thing about this system as although its head wrecking the profit can swing around quite alot. If one other horse had won instead of placing during that losing period i would be well in profit. Lets hope another double or so pops up soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 27, 2007 Author Share Posted June 27, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Tomorrows selections as i will be away tomorrow. Prices taken at present so might not be the best 15.30 New Lay European Dream. Liability £90 to win £20 Back in double 5.4 15.50 War Lay Yorke Cliffe. Liability £98.8 to win £19 Back in double 5.8 16.30 New Lay In Safe Hands. Liability £98.80 to win £19 Back in double 5.8 20.00 Ham Lay Matty Tun. Liability £98.80 to win £19 Back in double 5.5 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 28, 2007 Author Share Posted June 28, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! 15.30 New Lay European Dream. Liability £90 to win £20 LAY:ok Back in double 5.4 15.50 War Lay Yorke Cliffe. Liability £98.8 to win £19 LAY:ok Back in double 5.8 16.30 New Lay In Safe Hands. Liability £98.80 to win £19 LAY:ok Back in double 5.8 20.00 Ham Lay Matty Tun. Liability £98.80 to win £19 LAY:ok Back in double 5.5 :hope Total return from all lays = £77 - 5% commission =£73.15 Loss of 5 doubles = £60 Total profit today £13.15 Total Profit since 22.06.2007 = £-53.85 Old Book = £ 433 Book = £446.15 (Plus reserve of £500) Target for week 1 (29.06.07) = £50 profit What profit would be if no doubles involved = £131.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 29, 2007 Author Share Posted June 29, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Today see the weekly target go up again. (Not that i will meet it). Still going ok with a small loss overall so, so far so good as i did say this is based long term and not a short term profit. Selections today 15.30 Folk Lay Majestical £100 to win £25 Back in double 4.9 16.30 Folf Lay Prince Of Neiges £101.40 to win £26 Back in double 4.8 15.10 Market Lay Investment Wings £100 to win £25 Back in double 4.9 15.40 Market Lay Red Moor £112.70 to win £23 Back in double 5.8 6 Doubles @ £10 New Target for 06.07.2007 = £ 600 book + £500 reserve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted June 29, 2007 Author Share Posted June 29, 2007 Re: Laying & Doubles system. Worth a try!! Tonight selections 20.20 Newc Lay Wigwam Willie £87.50 to win £25 Back in double 4.4 19.05 Newm Lay Mick is Back £55.80 to win 30 Back in double 2.78 20.10 Newm Lay Diamond Diva £92.40 to win £22 Back in double 5.1 20.40 Newm Lay Majical mysterytour £104 to win £20 Back in double 6.0 6 doubles @ £10 each Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.