Dices Posted June 28, 2007 Share Posted June 28, 2007 Re: The Value Lay How do you rate a horse with no form? Criteria? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 28, 2007 Author Share Posted June 28, 2007 Re: The Value Lay 2:20 Warwick ... Know No Fear (max lay price 5.20) current price 3.75 4th ... staked 1 point ... returned 1 point Staked12.00 Profit-13.40 Yield-112%Wins6Strike50.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 28, 2007 Author Share Posted June 28, 2007 Re: The Value Lay How do you rate a horse with no form? Criteria? Yes there is much information still available - breeding, trainer, jockey but also importantly the other runners - I had this horse rated 4th and hence a value lay at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 29, 2007 Author Share Posted June 29, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value :- Wolves 2:50 ... Atlantic Gamble (max lay price 5.70) current price 4.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 29, 2007 Author Share Posted June 29, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value :- Wolves 2:50 ... Atlantic Gamble (max lay price 5.70) current price 4.40 5th ... 1 point staked ... 1 point returned Ok - Let's get this strike rate up a bit. Staked13.00 Profit-12.40 Yield-95%Wins7Strike53.85% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value. 2:40 Curragh ... MyBoyCharlie (max lay price 6.50) current price 4.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: The Value Lay 2:40 Curragh ... MyBoyCharlie (max lay price 6.50) current price 4.20 1st and won easily ... there's something strange going on here they maybe poor value but they keep winning maybe I've found away of highlighting the "gambles" :loon Staked 1 point ... returned -3.20 points Staked14.00 Profit-15.60 Yield-111%Wins7Strike50.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 1, 2007 Author Share Posted July 1, 2007 Re: The Value Lay For any followers still around :loon I've been looking back through my results of the last 6 months to try and find an answer to this apparent outperformance, my conclusion has been that by inadvertantly trying to reduce the losses on a single pick per day my selections have been at the lower end of the market which it turns out isnt the most profitable. I will start making selections from a higher "band" of prices, and try and turn these losses around - in the mean time I will keep an eye on lower end selections to see if this is a good BACKING model. Today's value :- Uttoxeter 2:45 ... Prince de Bersy (max lay 7.2) current price 6.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatz Posted July 1, 2007 Share Posted July 1, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Following your thread with great interest Kanga, certainly food for thought. I will start making selections from a higher "band" of prices, and try and turn these losses around Have selections until now have been made purely mechanically, ie. the odds most out of line with your own 'fair odds' in % terms on any given day ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 1, 2007 Author Share Posted July 1, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Hi Fatz, Glad you're following, and hope you haven't lost much. Yes, previously I looked for the best value to post at the lowest odds. Now I shall post a matchable value selection but within a higher price band, which hopefully will turn things around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 1, 2007 Author Share Posted July 1, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Uttoxeter 2:45 ... Prince de Bersy (max lay 7.2) current price 6.40 Weakening when brought down - staked 1 point returned 1 point. Staked15.00 Profit-14.60 Yield-97%Wins8Strike53.33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value :- 4:15 Pontefract ... Bollin Felix (max lay 8.40) current price 5.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 Re: The Value Lay 4:15 Pontefract ... Bollin Felix (max lay 8.40) current price 5.90 And we have another winner - unbelieveable !!! :wall :wall :wall 1 point staked ... -4.90 points returned. Staked16.00 Profit-19.50 Yield-122%Wins8Strike50.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 3, 2007 Author Share Posted July 3, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Nothing stands out this afternoon - back after a look at this evenings races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 3, 2007 Share Posted July 3, 2007 Re: The Value Lay :lol:rollinSorry Kanga, mustn't laugh. I went through a similar stage backing them. From 18 races I had 16 2nds and 1 win, and that win was a saver who beat the main bet into 2nd. But overall (icluding that run) I am 25% up on stakes. If the way you find these lays works in the long run then stick with it, it'll work out in the end. Do you always lay horses? I do well at backing them but when I lay it goes pear shaped. I work out the form, do the percentages to 100% and back whatever I think is good value. However, if I lay anything I believe is particularly poor value, it wins. Sometimes I think the poor value (lay) bets may be poor value from my form study but sometimes (with me a lot of the time) someone somewhere knows something I don't. Also, laying usually means a bigger risk. I find if one horse is particularly poor value it means 1, 2, or 3 horses are good value. And the other say 6 horses are also poor vaue. It seems to me if I only lay the poor value horse I am effectively backing the other 9. Including the 6 I believe are poor value. Have I got that right? This is why I prefur to maybe back 1 or 2 horses that are particularly good value and save on the others who I consider fairly good value. And so backing all the horses I think are good value and in effect laying the ones I do not. Doing it this way seems to give larger winnings with less of a risk. I am not saying laying horses is wrong Kanga, if it works for you go for it. What do you think? Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 3, 2007 Author Share Posted July 3, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Hi Ginge, Yes I primarily LAY horses, simply on the basis that bookmakers do the same and they are ones who generally have the nice holidays :rollin . There's alot to digest in your comments but as posted on other threads I believe that each horse has a "true price" and as you know the trick is to work out what that price is going by the facts we have. The trouble is (as you say) others know different at times - ringers, underweights, specially prepared, exceptionally fit ...etc..etc..etc. YES - As the "book" has to equal 100% and a horse is particularly "short" many of the others will be "value" but not all - and the big question then is WHY is that horse a short price ? I lay a varying number of horses a day all at "value" prices so in the long run I make money but most of the time I "fish" for a price, and when/if I get matched these are the ones I make money on. In running this thread I decided the best way was to post the horse that was available to instantly match shorter than what I thought was the "fair price" - what has been happening is that I have been identifying well backed horses that seem to have been aimed at winning only one has drifted after laying (and lost) I'm going to keep listing these because the longer this carries on I may be able to add a BACK method to the armoury. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 4, 2007 Author Share Posted July 4, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Nothing stands out this afternoon either will post later this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 4, 2007 Author Share Posted July 4, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value :- Leopardstown 6:00 ... Proud Ruler (Max Lay 8.4) current price 5.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 4, 2007 Author Share Posted July 4, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Leopardstown 6:00 ... Proud Ruler (Max Lay 8.4) current price 5.80 9th - 1 point staked - 1 point returned. Staked17.00 Profit-18.50 Yield-109%Wins9Strike52.94% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 7, 2007 Author Share Posted July 7, 2007 Re: The Value Lay I'm going to stop this thread as there is a conflict here - I can't run a lay thread hoping that it turns into a good backing thread :loon I'll keep monitoring and if it carries on performing as above I'll be back with a Backing thread - LOL !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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