Kanga Posted June 17, 2007 Share Posted June 17, 2007 The Value Lay<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> After reading some great threads from you guys and profiting from them, I thought I would add a little contribution of my own - I’ve been developing a “value LAY system†that won’t make you rich but should add a nice few points profit to your bank each month. This system is based purely on mathematics and more importantly VALUE and therefore I cannot easily explain how a selection is made except to say that I price up the cards and pick the best LAY selection from all those figures. I will select 1 horse a day and quote the maximum exchange price to LAY and the current exchange price, I'll also add the S.P forecast price and the Maximum S.P price to record the result - it is highly likely that you will get matched. This maximum lay price I quote is necessary to be profitable, but causes problems recording the bet results – the fairest way I can think of is to record the results at S.P and if the final price is higher than the lay price stated then this will be recorded as a NO BET. Any suggestions as to how to best record the results would be appreciated. Some points worth noting :- These selections aren’t picked because they will lose, but that because of the uncertainty in racing they will lose often enough at the price quoted to make it worth doing. If you can’t get the maximum price I quote then DON’T BET – don’t back them either as they are still likely poor value. Personally I don’t touch in-play racing and have not recorded or analysed these results. My gut feeling would be that you would get disproportionally matched on horses that are running well and would miss those that are set to lose – all IMHO All that said here is today’s LAY. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />4:05 Fairyhouse ….Green Mile (exchange lay max 7.6) currently (4.3) Forecast S.P 4/1 max S.P odds for recording 6/1 :hope Kanga :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Remmer7 Posted June 17, 2007 Share Posted June 17, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Sounds good mate :ok ill be watching with interest before falling you. Good luck! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 17, 2007 Author Share Posted June 17, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Well what a great start to this thread - LOL Green Mile ... 1st ... 5/2 fav Current results are as follows :- Staked1.00 Returns-2.50 Profit-2.50 Yield-250%Wins0Strike rate0.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted June 17, 2007 Share Posted June 17, 2007 Re: The Value Lay I have the feelling that it will go well and will be profitable at the end. Good luck Kanga. Today's selection was very good. The race distance was 18f and at this dist Green Mile sucked. 4 races with 0900 form dont lead to 4.5 odds. So it was a value bet. The true is that he was good at weeker races and smaller dist (10-12f). My question is how did you came up with the "fair" odds of 7.6 ? How did you calculate the 7.6 (practical) ? Did you convert any rating into odds? How? Even if you studied form you somehow convert it into odds - chances. Can you give us any clue? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 17, 2007 Author Share Posted June 17, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Thanks Dices, It's all down to the probabilities of winning that I assign to each horse and from that you can translate into odds. You may find this link helpful to you :- http://www.oddsexchange.com/servlet?cat=help I had Green Mile down as 9/1 "fair odds" a 10% chance - I set 6/1 as my own personal "value odds" the 7.6 is S.P +10% which is where I've noticed the exchanges trade at for laying (6.6 + 1). 5/2 was a rediculous price, somebody knew something as it was heavily gambled upon and sadly did just enough to land the gamble. Probably as clear as mud as I'm one of those people who knows what they mean but has trouble conveying the information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted June 17, 2007 Share Posted June 17, 2007 Re: The Value Lay I had Green Mile down as 9/1 "fair odds" a 10% chance - . How did you calculate this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 17, 2007 Author Share Posted June 17, 2007 Re: The Value Lay There are many ways to calculate what you think "fair odds" are, you can study form yourself by using various stats, you can use bookmakers early price odds, or there are many sites on the net that give "horse ratings" ...racingpost, flatstats, adrian massey, turftrax ...etc ..etc or a combination. It took me 6 months of testing various things before I was happy with my pricing up a race. From the example rating of 9/1 ... the formula is 1/(odds + 1) * 100 ... so for green mile I had .... 1/(9+1)*100 = 10% chance. To go from probability to a price the formula is ((1/prob)*100)-1 ...so it's ((1/10)*100)-1 = 9/1. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 18, 2007 Author Share Posted June 18, 2007 Re: The Value Lay 4:00 Hereford ….Or Sing About (exchange lay max 4.2) currently (3.25) Forecast S.P 2/1 max S.P odds for recording 11/4 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 18, 2007 Author Share Posted June 18, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Finishes 2nd by a SH then placed 1st after a stewards enquiry :wall Or Sing About ... 1st ... 7/4 fav......1 point staked -1.75 returned. Staked2.00 Profit-4.25 Yield-213%Wins0Strike rate0.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 19, 2007 Author Share Posted June 19, 2007 Re: The Value Lay 3:05 Ascot….Miss Andretti (exchange lay max 4.8) currently (4.5) Forecast S.P 3/1 max S.P odds for recording 7/2 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 19, 2007 Author Share Posted June 19, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Miss Andretti ... 1st ...3/1 fav...1 point staked -3.00 returned Smashed the course record by over 2 seconds = 10 lengths better than previous record ... over 5f that was an incredible run. Systems going well isnt it .. 3 lay selections .. 3 winners :loon All 3 winners were poor value and in the long run this will pay off - if there are any watchers still left keep following it will turn around. Staked3.00 Profit-7.25 Yield-242%Wins0Strike rate0.00% Selection tomorrow will be in the evening races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 20, 2007 Author Share Posted June 20, 2007 Re: The Value Lay 9:00 Leopardstown….Migmatite (exchange lay max 5.2) currently (4.4) Forecast S.P 9/2 ... Max S.P odds for recording 7/2 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 20, 2007 Author Share Posted June 20, 2007 Re: The Value Lay 9:00 Leopardstown….Migmatite (exchange lay max 5.2) currently (4.4) Forecast S.P 9/2 ... Max S.P odds for recording 7/2 :hope Magmatite 2nd ... drifted to 9/2 making it a no bet for recording although it was easy to get the price quoted. This recording is becoming a problem .... results stay as they were. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: The Value Lay There are 2 problems emerging with trying to enter this system on this forum - I follow it myself and I'm doing very nicely so I know it works. When I place my own bets on I enter a lay price and if it gets matched then great if not it's a no bet but this would be impossible to record on the forum .... how could you prove it got matched ? So I am left with entering a choice where the price is already available to take (while still entering a maximum lay price) but as you can see above if the S.P price drifts out then it's a no bet. Does anybody have a solution to this ? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikola Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Well, I guess you could just post the unmatched price you bet and that's it, it's up to us to trust you (although I really don't see a reason why anyone wouldn't). Or, if you would really like to proove it, you could print screen like this (but after it gets matched, this is just to show) Just click the print screen button on the keyboard, then paste it in paint, mark it with the rectangle tool, copy, then open a new file, paste it and save it. Shouldn't take more then 2-3 minutes. Hope this is what you're talking about :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Thanks Nikola, The trouble isnt so much about trust it's about making followers a few points profit a month and being able to accurately record the results without aftereventing ....e.g .....I managed to get matched at XXX and so should you ....so todays profit is XXX. Having thought about this I think I will post bets that I know can be taken at the time at Value Odds I'll post the maximum odds to take and the price available at that moment ..... I'll record the results with the current price posted regardless. Which ironically means the results are actually worse off than currently shown even after recording yesterdays 1 point profit :loon Todays value. Ripon 3:20 ...Union Jack Jackson (maximum value lay price 8.40) the current price 7.00. Amended results to follow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Ripon 3:20 ...Union Jack Jackson (maximum value lay price 8.40) the current price 7.00. Finished 2nd so a return of 1 point. Update of results based on recorded price available at the time of posting. Green Mile -3.30 points Or Sing About - 2.25 points Miss Andretti - 3.50 points Staked5.00 Profit-7.05 Yield-141%Wins2Strike rate40.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 22, 2007 Author Share Posted June 22, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Todays value. Ascot 3:45 ... Mi Emma (maximum value lay price 5.90) the current price 5.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 22, 2007 Author Share Posted June 22, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Todays value. Ascot 3:45 ... Mi Emma (maximum value lay price 5.90) the current price 5.60 2nd so 1 point for the pot. Staked6.00 Profit-6.05 Yield-101%Wins3Strike50.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Todays value. Ascot 2:30 ... Double Attack (maximum value lay price 8.40) the current price 7.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Ascot 2:30 ... Double Attack (maximum value lay price 8.40) the current price 7.00 Finished 11th so 1 point back for the pot. Staked7.00 Profit-5.05 Yield-72%Wins4Strike57.14% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 24, 2007 Author Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value. Warwick 3:00 ... Gleneagles (maximum value lay price 5.60) the current price 4.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 24, 2007 Author Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Warwick 3:00 ... Gleneagles (maximum value lay price 5.60) the current price 4.50 1st staked 1 point returned -3.5 points :wall Staked8.00 Profit-8.55 Yield-107%Wins4Strike50.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 25, 2007 Author Share Posted June 25, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value Muss 3.30 ... Carnivore (maximum Lay price 5.40) the current price 5.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 25, 2007 Author Share Posted June 25, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Muss 3.30 ... Carnivore (maximum Lay price 5.40) the current price 5.0 Carnivore ... 1st ... 1 point staked ... -4.00 points. Somebody up there is extracting the urine :loon 5 winners from 9 picks each won by a neck or less with 1 finishing 2nd and being placed 1st after a controversial stewards enquiry :wall Staked9.00 Profit-12.55 Yield-139%Wins4Strike44.44% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 26, 2007 Author Share Posted June 26, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value - What little there is !! Brighton 2.30 ... Maybe I Won't (maximum Lay price 2.10) the current price 1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 26, 2007 Author Share Posted June 26, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Brighton 2.30 ... Maybe I Won't (maximum Lay price 2.10) the current price 1.90 2nd ... 1 point staked ... 1 point returned About time we had a bit of luck. Staked10.00 Profit-11.55 Yield-116%Wins5Strike50.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 27, 2007 Author Share Posted June 27, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value Lay Carlisle 2:30 ... Brixworth Scribe (max lay price 4.75) the current price 3.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 27, 2007 Author Share Posted June 27, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Carlisle 2:30 ... Brixworth Scribe (max lay price 4.75) the current price 3.85 1st ... staked 1 point returned -2.85 :wall Being forced into taking an early value price seems to be making a difference to the system - I'll keep monitoring this but the longer it goes on below expectations the more concerned i'm getting that the selections are outperforming. Staked11.00 Profit-14.40 Yield-131%Wins5Strike45.45% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 28, 2007 Author Share Posted June 28, 2007 Re: The Value Lay Today's Value 2:20 Warwick ... Know No Fear (max lay price 5.20) current price 3.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.