Saturday 2nd June, Finland - Serbia

[rebel_penguin]

Finland – Serbia: X at halftime<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Bet: X at halftime

Book: Unibet

Odds: 2,00

<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Finland and Serbia are 3rd and 4th in their group with 11 point each – The same as Portugal on 2nd place. Poland has left them behind on 1^st place with their 16 points. This means that Finland, Serbia and Portugal are more or less fighting for the same spot on 2^nd place. It will therefore be a disaster for both Finland and Serbia to lose this game, which is why Saturday’s game is expected to be highly tactical.

Serbia will no doubt approach the game with their usual cynicism: Defend the draw and hope for an opening late in the game. Finland will eventually try to win the game, but has difficulty scoring goals. All in all this make out the pieces of a sorry game where much is pointing towards a draw.

Let’s look at the stats (source: http://www.livegoals.com):

Goals in Euro 2008 Qualification

Finland scores 1.17 goals on average (1.00 in home games) and has only scored 3 goals in its last 4 games.

Serbia scores 1.33 goals on average (1.00 in away games)

Finland only allows 0.50 goals per game

Serbia only allows 0.67 goals per game

From these stats alone much is pointing at a classic 1-1 game.

Games gone UNDER 2½

Finland has played the UNDER in 5 of 6 qualification games.

Serbia has played the UNDER in 4 of 6 qualification games.

The fewer goals that are scored, the more even the game is. And the more even the game is, the higher the chance of a draw. These overwhelming UNDER stats are all pointing towards a low scoring game and thereby also an even game.

Comparing the context of the match (neither team can afford to give 3 points to the opponent), with the stats above I think that draw is a good bet and especially draw by half.

4 out of 6 of Finland’s recent matches ended with draw at halftime.

4 out of 6 of Serbia’s recent matches ended with draw at halftime.

Conclusion: Several factors suggest that this match will go under 2.5 goals, and that it will end with a draw. I believe the match to be a tactical affair with focus on defense and do expect to see only few goals.

Odds on UNDER is a bit low though (1.65). Instead I opt to go for the bet draw at halftime based on the statistics above. Serbia has only scored 2 out of their goals before half time which supports my belief that they will play on strong defense and hope to score on contra in the closing stages of the match.

If wee look at the odds you get (2.00) I believe we have a value bet. 2/3 of the matches that the two teams play end with draw at halftime. This gives a TBP of 133 % if you placed this bet on all their games at odds 2.

Should you make an odds that gave 100 % TBP from the statistics above, the odds would be 1.50. A good picture of the value in this bet!

I estimate the chances for draw at halftime to be about 55-60%, which gives a TBP at about 120 % at odds 2. I feel there is value in playing this bet even as low as odds 1.85.

Lastly, I recommend that you put on your pajamas when watching this game, because it is going to put you to sleep:zzz

Good luck!