Rugby Union - Summer Tours

[2hcb]

The action starts this Saturday... Australia (-15/16/17) v Wales South Africa (-22/23/24) v England Argentina (+1/2) v Ireland Immediate thoughts are 'I don't have a clue' all 6 sides seemingly with the exception of South Africa have selected experimental teams so there is very little form to go on. It'd be great to get some Southern Hemisphere views on this in particular but if anyone has any views than let's hear them!

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Welsh price & h/cap seems way out to me. I originally priced them at around 5.5 to 6, not the 8 you can get on Betfair. Lump on at outright as well as a saver on the highest h/cap.

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours My first thoughts are thus: England v SA, handicap seems about right, England have a pretty average team with the occasional standout player (eg Robinson and an on-form Wilkinson) but are up against a South African side which doesn't seem to be the best side available (Willemse in, Du Preez is out and no Bulls front rowers, is this a surprise Super 14 followers?). Will leave this one alone, but will watch keenly in order to see how SA are shaping up for the World Cup. Ireland vs Argentina, I don't recognise many of the Argentinian starting lineup as they are missing their French based players, but the likes of Contemponi, Leguizamon, Fernandez Lobbe and Ayerza are all experienced guys who will surely lead their side to a home victory against an Irish XV who are missing stacks of top line players. The whole first choice backline (other than Trimble) is not there, and the only quality forwards are Neil Best and probably O'Kelly based on experience. The way I see it with Ireland is that players like O'Connell, Leamy and Quinlan up front and Horgan, D'Arcy and O'Driscoll behind really raise the bar in terms of individual performances and carry the others with them. Can't see how without any of these or the supporting cast this Ireland team can win on Argentinian soil which is a very difficult task for the best of teams. At present the 4/5 available on bet365 (+1.5pts) looks very appealing. As for Wales, all this Australian talk of a weak squad is just a continuation of the media mind games we have come to expect. It's a decent squad, nothing special though, and I think we'll give Australia two good games. You listen to Gareth Jenkins coming out with such phrases as "this squad is bubbling with experience" and it just reminds you that this bloke is pissing around at international level, I have a lot of respect for what he achieved at Llanelli but so far I am totally unconvinced by his international credentials. So onto the match and it's a great relief that Tuqiri and Latham are out for the Wallabies. These guys have torn us several new ones, to coin a phrase, during the last few meetings and I feel a lot more comfortable about our ability to defend against those selected even though the likes of Larkham, Giteau and Mortlock are top notch players. In terms of our attacking ability Phillips and Hook offer serious threats at half back and I expect Chris Czekaj to go well after some promising end of season form for Cardiff. Up front, I think each one of our selected pack is a very good club player, but other than Charvis none have been consistent international performers - I suppose this is their chance to prove otherwise. The balance of the back row is all wrong without a genuine 8 and the tendency of some of these guys (e.g. Adam Jones, Sidoli, Jonathan Thomas) to disappear when it gets tough really worries me. That said, the Australian front row has been diabolical in recent times and we may have a slight, but important, advantage in that area. I definitely think Wales can stay within the cap but the win, I would say, is unlikely. Think the margin of victory will be about 10 points. I can see us getting a try or two but I expect Australia to have a more coherent gameplan and dominate possession. Will reconsider my bets tomorrow, reluctant to bet on/against Wales so will prob just end up going for Argentina to beat the low cap.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours you're right cymro that does look like a poor Ireland side. what puts me off is a whole load of the argie team could be amateurs for all i know. is that game on TV atall? Wumpking - i really don't think we'll beat the aussies, we have won very few games against the 3N in the 3N in our history and with what is basically a reserve side I don't see us doing ti on Saturday. However it would have to be one of the strongest reserve sides we've ever had with the likes of Hook, Charvis and Thomas so on paper we really should cover the cap but Wales have often collapsed after 60mins down under. basically I think Wales on the cap is the value bet but definately don't lump on us to win.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Can't resist the cap... Wales +17 @ 8/11 (Paddy Power)

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours OK I've had another look at the Ireland game and cannot understand how they are favourites. The only Northern Hemisphere side to win a series in Argentina in recent times was Wales in 1999 and that was with a full strength team under Graham Henry when he had us playing at our best. The Ireland side named is very low on quality, only 4 or 5 international standard players I would say from what I've seen in the Magner's League and no reliable kicker. Argentina, despite French League commitments, have top quality players in key positions, with Contempomi the most influential of those. This guy is a brilliant performer for his country and most importantly will keep the scoreboard ticking over. Bet365 are offering 11/10 on Argentina to win and I am going in here with a maximum stake of 10 pts on a home victory.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Absolutely, steer clear of a Wales win as home advantage is huge in these short 'development' tours. But also agree they are worth a handicap punt. Can Wilko's boot at altitude and intelligent rugby keep SA at bay at least for sixty minutes? Can't see it at all. Boks will want to dish out a major (but fairly meaningless) drubbing and will easily cover the handicap.

[rod_steel]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Australia to cover the -15.5 for me fellas tonight GL

[davidmphill]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Great write up Cymro. Not sure Wales will prosper too well here. We have a shocking record down under against the Wallabies. We should've beaten them in Cardiff last time out and thank the lord for Hooks kicking performance. Hopefully we can keep it respectful, its noit the strongest side on paper but we have more experience than Australia caps wise.

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours No write up but an intresting bet,none the less. Paddy Power are offering odds of $2.25 for the total points over 63.5 in the SA/Eng match and that could well happen,so i'm on it,with a small wager. England are decimated and have a flu in their ranks,the Boks are at full strength and look very good to win by a large margin,this would be a third string English side taking on a Boks side full of confidence and keen to get ready for the Tri Nations. I think the Boks will win by plenty and can see this option maybe going over,it's a outsider,but at those odds worth a punt.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours I want to scream. I have never ever felt so sick after winning a bet. It's simply pathetic how Wales fall to pieces.

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Are you from Wales bro? I know how you feel,thats why I don't bet on League internationals,it's great winning the bet,but watching your country lose is heartbreaking stuff and the money does'nt make up for it,well it does,but not untill the next day,when you are over it. I know how you feel bro,you have my sympathy.Head up bro,head up.

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Heres something to lift your spirits mate,something you may not know,it may not,but you may not know this about your beloved Welsh Rugby Union Side. In New Zealand the Welsh Rugby Union side are massive news to us,whenever we play you guys it is the biggest match of the tour or the year if you guys come here,no crap either the two sides who get the most respect in World Rugby in NZ are the Welsh and the Boks.

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Know how you feel 2hcb that's why I don't bet on Wales or Cardiff games anymore. Would have been strange if we'd won as it wouldn't have been deserved but wins like that when you don't play well make a big difference, I can't see us doing anything in the second test now as a result. Really disappointed with the set pieces today and the poor kicking. Also some anonymous showings from J Thomas, the two props and Czekaj. Other than Henson coming in (and he did OK in his time on the pitch today fair play) I can't see what we'll change for Brisbane.

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Gutted - :wall 2hcb - great call on the h/cap as the value bet - :clap I couldn't resist backing Wales outright as I thought this represented great value too (partic after Larkham was ruled out). Was on Wales at a variety of prices between 8.0 & 8.8. Still can't believe prices offered on Betfair. Covered stakes with bet on the h/cap (again can't believe the price of 2.02 on Wales with a 16.5pts start).

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours

No write up but an intresting bet,none the less. Paddy Power are offering odds of $2.25 for the total points over 63.5 in the SA/Eng match and that could well happen,so i'm on it,with a small wager. England are decimated and have a flu in their ranks,the Boks are at full strength and look very good to win by a large margin,this would be a third string English side taking on a Boks side full of confidence and keen to get ready for the Tri Nations. I think the Boks will win by plenty and can see this option maybe going over,it's a outsider,but at those odds worth a punt.

I got lucky on that one.:cow

[rugbylad]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours

I got lucky on that one.:cow

Nice call matey :ok

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Jumbo - yes I am a Wales supporter (thought you might have guessed before from my Shane Williams avatar ;) ) and now it's a few hours passed winning the bet does begin to make up so it is worth betting on your side imo as they are the ones you know best. Wales - NZ always used to be THE fixture in rugby back in the days when we could beat you (or atleast have 10/15 players in a Lions side that beat you) but in my lifetime Wales has never beaten NZ (nor Aus or SA away from home) and I'm suprised we can still be considered a top class rugby team worth getting excited about. Our support and passion for the game is matched only by NZ and maybe SA but on the pitch we just don't cut it. Today we were gifted a 17-0 lead and Aus gave one of their worst performances ever yet WE STILL LOST! That really hurts, reserve side or not especially as we had the chance to keep the ball for the last minutes and hold on yet pannicked and kicked it away.:cry Wump - bad luck with Wales outright, as it was your cap valuation was spot on, but Wales just seem to not be mentally strong enough to win down under. Today will only make it worse, everything went our way (except the obstruction for Giteau's try) and we couldn't win, it'll be hugely devestating for our guys. Anyway Cymro must have been onto something, that 11/10 for Arg has disappeared. Still I think evens is worht a pop for the pumas at home against a weak Irish side.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours

Still I think evens is worht a pop for the pumas at home against a weak Irish side.

Argentina win it 22-20 with a last minute drop goal! 2/2 today and I'm starting to cheer up.

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Nice one 2hcb, was following the game on the IRFU site (text commentary); never looked like the Argies were in it until the end but Contepomi made the difference with a break to set up the winning try and a drop goal. Far too close to call for such a big bet but I will gladly take the result given it normally goes the other way! Didn't catch the England game in the end today but sounded like they threw what they could at SA for 20 minutes and then were just defending for the rest of the game. I notice SA are now around 11/2 for the World Cup having previously been about 8/1 which in hindsight would have been fantastic value. Might have missed the boat on this one I think.

[davidmphill]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Gutted that Wales lost it so fcuking close to the end. I never got to watch the game but from what I've read I can imagine the pain.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours I don't think I'll be able to bear to watch it next week david! we've hadour chance to beat them and blown it in heart wrenching manner, they won't take us so lightly next week and will make sure od the win. Cymro - Very close indeed, Ireland having a DG shot of their own charged down in the last seconds. We probably underestimated that Irish line up in our analysis and made the wrong call but Contepomi let us off!

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Early prices are up on Bet365 as follows: Outright Australia (1/8) vs Wales (5/1), Draw 33/1 NZ (1/80) vs France (16/1), Draw 50/1 SA (1/66) vs England (14/1), Draw 14/1 Argentina (4/6) vs Ireland (6/5), Draw 18/1 Handicaps (All teams 10/11, draws 16/1) Australia (-15) vs Wales NZ (-31) vs France SA (-29) vs England Argentina (-2) vs Ireland Early thoughts again, Argentina look appealing with a stronger team but the price is probably about right this time. NZ - France is anyone's guess as to how many tries the AB's will run in so I will leave well alone. I have a funny feeling England might hold the Boks to their handicap this time around but need to revisit this once nearer the game. As for Wales, I think they have missed a trick by leaving Henson out for Parker, and despite Rees' throwing being abysmal against Australia I don't think Mefin is such a good all round player so this will weaken the side also. Owen in the second row is also a slight concern as without Cockbain we don't have a really tall man in the lineout and only Sidoli as a genuine lineout option. The other change is Aled Brew on the wing, I can only hope he's improved from his last run-out against Ireland where his handling skills were exposed in a brief substitute appearance. Larkham, Vickerman and George Smith all return for the Aussies to strengthen the side and I think we might struggle to remain within our handicap. Australia were very rusty last weekend and I can't see that happening again, Wales on the other hand made no real impression after their fortunate start.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Cymro - I fear fear Wales this weekend. Unless we're banking on getting 2 more interceptions I don't see where the points are going to come from with 30% posession, a lineout that doesn't work (Sharpe + Vickerman v Sidoli + Owen ffs!) and 2 donkeys in the centre. Aus can't play so badly again and have Larkham back. I'll wait to see if anyone else prices it up lower but so far the only thing I'm looking at this weekend is Aus to cover.

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours The All Blacks will munch this French side and it's not even the AB'sd strongest lineup,the French have 11 debutants in this match and also have trouble in the ranks already with players not showing up to practise,this AB's side taking the field are all playing for World Cup and Tri Nations places,the attitude of the AB's is very up beat and I fear for the French as to be honest if the AB's don't win by 50 it will be considered a massive failure over here,I'm amased the line was only set at 31 as I was expecting 45 or more,some of the French players in the media over here are saying they would rather not even be here,not good signs at all,i'd take the handicap on the All Blacks. The Boks match is another one that I will be taking the Boks on the line at,the line has only gone up another 2 points,if you guys watched that game last week,the English never looked likely to score,the Boks did'nt even play that well either,I see the Boks have changed a couple of positions,but all that does is strengthen the Boks even more.England did'nt look to bad in the first half and the Boks trys came from bad passes or turnovers,but the second half was a different story altogether.I think the Boks will come out far better this week than last and will improve and win by 50,easy. As far as Wales is concerned,I'm leaving that match alone,the Aussies are not going well at present,but like 2hcb has already said,Wales got lucky with the intercepts and Aussie were plain rubbish.I would expect Aussie to win well here,but I won't be touching it,I have far to much respect for the Welsh to bet against them. As for Argentina and Ireland,no idea when Ireland were here a couple of years ago now,they were the only side to give us a real hurry up and I rate their chances for the world cup,but as far as betting go's for this weekend,AB'S -30 looks safe albeit massive as does SA - 29,both massive starts but look likely to be covered. Good Luck guys.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours cheers jumbo - NZ are already out to -34 in most places. Are you sure they won't just ease off once they are 20 in front/ Having said that if there's 1 side who don't do 'easing off' it's the ABs!! I'll probably leave SA-Eng, the line is out to a massive 33, remember 4 Boks tries came in yhe last 10mins last week.

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Jumbo - what's the likely weather forecast for tomorrow's AB v F game? Planet Rugby have it listed as 'Clear spells with heavy showers, strong north-westerly winds'. Could very rainy conditions affect the AB chances of beating the h/cap?

[litmanen88]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours Centrebet opened up -26.5 for New Zealand which I thought was amazing - I expected a handicap of 35-40. However, the likely bad weather was drawn to my attention so I only took a small bet. New Zealand should hammer France. They beat France by 40 in France in the pouring rain when France were fielding their best 15 last Autumn... Now the handicaps are in the 30's I am very hesistant because of the weather though in all honest I think New Zealand will still cover - something like 62-10 In the other games I fancy Wales with the 17.5 point start - less confident than last week when I piled on to them +19. Wales were quite lucky last weekend and still managed to lose. I expect Australia to win by more this week but to win by 18+ is a big ask so I will side with the Welsh. South Africa can beat England by how many they like and we will probably see a similar game to last week. South Africa should cover again but long gone is the -24.5 Centrebet opened up with (which was quickly taken down before I could get on). The handicaps now are a lot higher and I will probably leave a bet on them for now at least. I fancy Ireland with +4. I watched Ireland against Argentina and was on the Irish. The Argentina side was pretty weak and will be even weaker this week with Contemponi missing out. Remember the French Top 14 playoffs are still going on and 3 Biarittz players are missing for the hosts. Ireland's team is pretty weak too admittedly and home adantage is key but Ireland did not deserve to lose last week and I think it will be very close again this weekend. Ireland +4 or no bet IMO. In the Churchill Cup, England A +19, Scotland +6 and Canada -8 are the bets while Fiji +30.5 looks too big against a strong Junior All Blacks side in the Pacific Nations Cup.

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours A quick glance out of the windows suggest weather in Auckland is fine today. I expect 40 pts plus from the AB's

[Citizen Kane]

Re: Rugby Union - Summer Tours I know the AB's should win comfortably but 1st up match, high expectations, France nothing to lose, night game, potential rain about etc... persuaded me that France +36.5 is worth a nudge. 1pt France +36.5 @1.90 (Centrebet) GLA Cheers CK