Allsvenskan 12 - 17/5

[G:G]

Re: Allsvenskan 12 - 17/5

hmhmmmmm interesting I think Malmo seem to be better than I think they are really. To warrant odds of 2.15 level ball though then they would have to be ranked at least 2 grades higher than Helsingborg. maybe they are though eh :loon

I don't get this...why must Malmö be ranked 2 grades higher for 2.15 dnb? How do you reason when backing Helsingborg dnb at 1.90 ? :unsure

[meatman]

Re: Allsvenskan 12 - 17/5

I don't get this...why must Malmö be ranked 2 grades higher for 2.15 dnb? How do you reason when backing Helsingborg dnb at 1.90 ? :unsure

its compilcated mate, a stats system I sometimes work on. but for this game I had it that Malmo were only slightly better than Helsingborg this means that fair odds for the home win would be around 2.20-2.25, equal to about 1.60 on the (0) AH. fair away odds about 3.70 and on the (0) AH I had as about 2.60-70 to warrant odds of 2.15 on the level ball away from home, then they would have to be ranked as about 1-2 grades higher than Helsingborg, which is surely not the case

[G:G]

Re: Allsvenskan 12 - 17/5

its compilcated mate, a stats system I sometimes work on. but for this game I had it that Malmo were only slightly better than Helsingborg this means that fair odds for the home win would be around 2.20-2.25, equal to about 1.60 on the (0) AH. fair away odds about 3.70 and on the (0) AH I had as about 2.60-70 to warrant odds of 2.15 on the level ball away from home, then they would have to be ranked as about 1-2 grades higher than Helsingborg, which is surely not the case

Ok, get it somewhat. Don't agree with fair odds 3.70 though, for Malmö to have only 27% chance at winning this one, too low imo. It's difficult to set % at a match, but if leaving out the draw I had this one in the 60-40 region. Ok, this round over and done with, but always interesting to discuss these matters.

[G:G]

Re: Allsvenskan 12 - 17/5

Ok' date=' this round over and done with, .[/quote'] No, not over and done with...Trelleborg - Elfsborg left, sorry about this. :tongue2

[Giovanni]

Re: Allsvenskan 12 - 17/5 Just a suggestion: Elfsborg -0.25 at 1.77 with Canbet. Trelleborgs vs Elfsborg Never guessed Elfsorg so low after a few matches: they were been build to win or, anyway, to stand in medals zone, but they suffered a poor start, so I'm continuing to give trust to them, cause, considering the potential of the rost, I cannot immagine to watch for them to struggle so bad for a long time yet. Trelleborg, new promoted, has strong point at home ground, where they collected, in the last years, a very strong record, anyway they will play without the gk Fredrik Persson (big blow IMO cause they haven't 2nd gk so sure). The power differential under quality nand experienced profiles is really very large, but Elfsborg must proove in field this gap.