AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

[TazaD]

Right...stats are in, and some early thoughts for the week ahead... Essendon...still very shaky imo. Can they rely on a potent forward line, kicking big scores by converting well from limited opporunities all season?? The Carlton game suggests not!...although the obvious difference here is that Collingwood don't have anyone capable of kicking a quick 8 when it's needed. :D Hird will be limited, Fletcher looks certain to miss...of course Presti also likely to miss hurts tham down back. But, as I said, Essendon, in 4 games, are yet to gain more I50's than their opp, and av. 5.25 less per game...there's only so long they can convert at 66%... ...and MCG records make interesting reading...Bombers won just ONE of last 10 (1 draw), the win being by just 13 points (against Collingwood) late last year. Collingwood lost just 1 of their last 9 by more than 13 points there...but surpringly have been biggish favs in most of those games! :\ Still don't rate Essendon enough to warrant taking them as short favs, don't rate Collingwood at all ;) ;) St. Kilda?! This is slurp your lips stuff, surely!! Liked the 2.30, 2.60 is crazy! I can only assume missing half their backline is the reason, but who can take advantage for Port? Ebert is their main target...Tredrea still a long way from being near his best...maybe White? (played well last week)... ...I don't believe Brogan will play. He'll be a big In if he does, freeing Lade to play forward, but don't think it will happen. (Voss likely back for St. K) so all is not lsot down back anyway!) Just love the way it sets up from last week...Saints predicably (well, predictably enough!) lose big without their FF, and against a big, potent forward line... ...Port win away against a (sorry, bjv, still have to say it!) very over-rated Collingwood... Port got a bit lucky in week 1, kicking very well against an under-strength Freo, wins over Kangas and Pies...and a reasonable loss to Adealide...and as the Dogs, and Essendon have shown this season, if there's one team that plays like Adelaide, so far it's the Saints. St. Klda allowing just 43 I50's a game! (second best behind Sydney), and av 9.5 more than their opp per game. Realistically, I guess I'll be taking the h'cap (+10ish I guess?) because I think it will be close either way...3 of the last 4 have been by 6 points or less, inc. a 4 point and 6 point win to Port @ Adelaide... ...also, interestingly enough, Port won by 4 points @ home last season, had 1 less shot at goal, and Gehrig didn't play! (Although Hamill kicked 4 I guess). Anyway, I think I've made my point! :D West Coast? Yep. Easy. Won their last 5 meetings by an av of 45, inc. 88 last year @ MCG. Richmond allow 9 more I50's a game, Eagles allowed just 23, 20, 15 and 19 shots so far @ 64 ppg... ...Tiges allowed 32, 30, 40 shots!!...and 23 to Sydney. Eagles inaccuracy a worry for covering big spreads, but if Richmond don't score 60 it shouldn't matter. A spread of low 30's will be interesting... Actually leaning towards Brisbane...hopefully will push out to 2.00 or more. Carlton won just one of their last 10 @ the Dome..yeah, all as 'dogs, but have allowed huge points...something that hasn't changed this season...they allow a shot at goal every 1.64 entries!!! (Richmond next worst @ 1.75) Obviously Fev the key up the other end...Strangely enough you'd say that both Merrett, Brennan and Roe all match up quite well on him. Lappin likely finally back, Charman better for the run...Brown on who> Waite? O'Hailpin??...Whitnall!?? He won't kick 1.5 again. Strangely enough Melbourne have a good recent record v. Sydney...won 3 of last 6, the last 2 @ SCG, and haven't lost by more than 32... Will Melbourne score?? They allow nearly 14 more I50's per game!!, get just 43 (the lowest)...Sydney allow just 36.5 p/game!!!!!! (+12ish),and haven't allowed more than 19 shots...Melbourne haven't allowed LESS than 31!!! Still, easy win for the Swannies...tough to pick a margin tho...you'd suggest 10 extra shots should convert to a 30+ point win...which is right where I expect the spread to be. Pass on Doggies game!!...realistically good odds for the Dogs (anything over 1.60 I like!)...but got a funny feeling. Rain forecast, MCG, no Cross (although Boyd did very weel last week helping West out)... Dogs -6 I50's, and have allowd 29+ shots in each game, and a shot every 1.85 entries (4th worse)... ...BUT, Hawks off 2 wins agasint 2 crap teams, and another "explainable" win last week...Dogs handle lower teams generally...bit like the Saint/Ess game last week...value with the likely winners, but not 100% sold. Geelong obviously win...won last 3 at home v. Kangas by 10, 69 and 85...but their last 6 at home (from Rd. 3 last year) were 3 losses, a draw and wins by 10 and 27... ....but again, I think this one sets up well...Kangas of 3 small losses and an upset win..all against bottom 6 teams. Geelong off the old "explainable" loss...belted 2 bad sides before that...how do we read Geelong tho? Again, bad weather could be a factor. Crows win. Freo suck ;) Oh, btw, Crows still available at 4.00 for top finish @ Canbet/IAS.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Wednesday 25 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Essendon v Collingwood (05:00 BST)	1.46		3.10	101%	Related markets...Match Result- - -Handicap ResultFirst Quarter ResultFirst Scoring PlayFirst Team to ScoreWinning Margin
Friday 27 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Port Adelaide v St Kilda (10:40 BST)	1.55		2.64	103%	Related markets...Match Result
Saturday 28 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Richmond v West Coast (05:00 BST)	5.20		1.22	102%	Related markets...Match Result
Carlton v Brisbane (10:00 BST)	1.97		1.96	102%	Related markets...Match Result
Sydney v Melbourne (10:00 BST)	1.16		5.50	105%	Related markets...Match Result
Sunday 29 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs (04:00 BST)	2.32		1.72	102%	Related markets...Match Result
Geelong v Kangaroos (05:00 BST)	1.33		3.75	102%	Related markets...Match Result
Fremantle v Adelaide (07:00 BST)	1.92		2.02	102%	Related markets...Match Result