Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Sensational football played by Geelong last night. Carlton have been in super form and they were blown away by the Cats. That's the best football I have seen by a side for a while. Geelong ran the ball through the corridor brilliantly, led by Wocinski who has speed to burn. Brad Ottens managed to play a very servicable game after a shocking start. He was very good around the ground and in the ruck. Geelong looked awfully dangerous in the forward line with the 2 Abletts, Mooney and the Tomahawk Tom Hawkins. Great signs for the Cats, and makes the Bulldogs form look even better. West Coast won as expected in Perth, but fair effort by Collingwood to make them work for it all the way. Too much class in the Eagles side. Couple of pivotal free kicks paid to Judd for breathing on him at a couple of times in the second half. Sydney too good for the Tigers. Interestingly enough, it generally takes the Swans about 4 games to get up and running, and here they are at one win and one loss. Maybe Sydney are better than last year. Everitt is a huge inclusion for them. Still cannot see anyone stopping it being a Sydney/West Coast Grand Final again, unless they meet each other in a Preliminary Final. They are clearly head and shoulders above the rest.

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Surely a couple of votes to Ottens for his servicable game. He'd be on about three now. Does make the dogs form look good but seemed a case of Geelong bringing a different game last night IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) 3 votes??!!...Ottens??!!...Ash?... :unsure :lol I just think it shows Carlton for what they are...a bottom 4 team who got lucky running into another bottom 4 team without 3-4 of their best players last week. Waiting for the Dogs total today...

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Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Being a Carlton fan, im hoping Carlton can bottom out for another year. Just go the rest of the season without winning more than 3 games and collect another top 2 draft picks then perhaps make a bit of a crack for the premiership next year. Or even if they go full tilt in the pre season cup again next year, claim the prizemoney then finish bottom winning no more than 4 games, they should be right for 2009 you would think. Being barred from the 2002-05 drafts is still killing them when they had top picks through all those years but ended up with picks 40+. If Carlton win more than 4 games this year they are total idiots

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Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Port Adelaide vs Kangaroos This could be an entertaining game, Port Adelaide went over to Perth last week and came home with a very strong victory against a premiership favourite in Fremantle, while Kangaroos choked in the final moments against a poor Collingwood with Shannon Grant missing a set shot from 15 metres out in the dying seconds. Looking at the head to head stats here we see Kangaroos enjoy playing against Port as they have won 13 of the past 16 against them. Kane Cornes looms as a danger man here for Port as he has averaged 25+ disposals against the Kangaroos in their last 5 matches. The thing thats turning me off about the Kangaroos this year though is their forward line, 3 of their top 5 goalkickers in 2006 have since left the club over summer and they will be hard pressed to find anyone who can step up and replace them. However looking at the head to heads and the fact Kangaroos are a bogey team to the Power, i think taking the Kangaroos on the line will be a good tip and centrebet are being generous here giving the Kangaroos a 27.5 point head start, so ill take that. Pick Kangaroos +27.5 at $1.91 - (4/10)

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Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Essendon vs Fremantle A tricky game to pick this one. Fremantle have been touted as a possible premierhip favourite with alot of people, yet last week they were very disapointing at home against Port Adelaide. Essendon on the other hand finished second bottom last year and not many expected them to go over to Footy Park last week and destroy last years Minor Premier in Adelaide. They completely destroyed them and this sets up todays match against Fremantle as a thriller. Interestingly, since Fremantle joined the AFL in 1995 Essendon have won 13 of 18 head to head which includes Essendon winning 4 of the last 5. Fremantle have never won a match agaisnt Essendon at this venue. I think Essendon have a very good chance to win this one, they will field a full strength team and with Matthew Lloyd up forward they just look a completely different team to last year. Take the Bombers to win Under 39.5 points at $2.55 Pick Essendon Under 39.5 at $2.55 - (4/10)

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Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide A game most would expect the Bulldogs to win comfortably. Adelaide looked extremely flat at home last week to Essendon and were completely outplayed, they must now travel interstate to take on the Doggies in an MCG Twilight match and its hard to imagine them getting anything from this. The Dogs are coming off a very strong win against Geelong last week and are really looking the goods at the moment, Brad Johnson was sensational with 8 goals and the fast running game the Dogs play will trouble most sides this year. Head to head in the past 5 Adelaide lead 3-2, but that was an era where Adelaide finished minor premier twice and the Bulldogs were low on the ladder, the roles seem to have reversed now. Players to watch out for here are Adam Cooney who has kicked 8 goals in his last 3 games against Adelaide while averaging 29 disposals, and Scott West has averaged 30 disposals in his past 3 against Adelaide. Look for the Bulldogs to score a good win here. Pick W.Bulldogs -25.5 at $2.10 - (6/10)

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Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) For those of you who like the exotic match bets offered by centrebet (ie. head to head disposals for 2 seletced players) then take a look at the following two that stand out: Nathan Lonie $1.80 vs Michael Wilson $1.90 Lonie averaged 18.1 touches in 17 games last year, Wilson averaged 12.5 in 16. Daniel Wells $1.82 vs Brady Rawlings $1.88 Both averaged around the same last year, however Wells averages 19.3 in his last 3 against Port while Rawlings averaged 17.3 in those same games.

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Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

Surely a couple of votes to Ottens for his servicable game. He'd be on about three now. Does make the dogs form look good but seemed a case of Geelong bringing a different game last night IMO.

3 votes? How many people overate this guy!? He wont have any votes so far this year Last week he got 8 disposals and didnt even score a point, while last night i highly doubt he will take home the 3 votes as he only got 16 touches and 1 goal. If he gets any votes ahead of guys like Nathan Ablett (5 goals, 16 disposals), Gary Ablett (2 goals, 28 disposals), Joel Corey (32 disposals), James Bartel (30 disposals) or Cam Mooney (5 goals, 14 disposals, 8 marks), then the Brownlow voting system is a joke.

[Loz]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

Essendon vs Fremantle A tricky game to pick this one. Fremantle have been touted as a possible premierhip favourite with alot of people, yet last week they were very disapointing at home against Port Adelaide. Essendon on the other hand finished second bottom last year and not many expected them to go over to Footy Park last week and destroy last years Minor Premier in Adelaide. They completely destroyed them and this sets up todays match against Fremantle as a thriller. Interestingly, since Fremantle joined the AFL in 1995 Essendon have won 13 of 18 head to head which includes Essendon winning 4 of the last 5. Fremantle have never won a match agaisnt Essendon at this venue. I think Essendon have a very good chance to win this one, they will field a full strength team and with Matthew Lloyd up forward they just look a completely different team to last year. Take the Bombers to win Under 39.5 points at $2.55 Pick Essendon Under 39.5 at $2.55 - (4/10)

Good luck today mate. I am not sure who will win this, but if Fremantle lose today, I think a lot of mug punters would nt have expected them to go 0-2 to start the season.

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Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

For those of you who like the exotic match bets offered by centrebet (ie. head to head disposals for 2 seletced players) then take a look at the following two that stand out: Nathan Lonie $1.80 vs Michael Wilson $1.90 Lonie averaged 18.1 touches in 17 games last year, Wilson averaged 12.5 in 16. Daniel Wells $1.82 vs Brady Rawlings $1.88 Both averaged around the same last year, however Wells averages 19.3 in his last 3 against Port while Rawlings averaged 17.3 in those same games.

Half Time in this game, Lonie leads Wilson 8-7 while Wells leads Rawlings 15-10

[TazaD]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Dogs v. Crows under 182.5 (7 units@ 2.70) 183-202 (3 units @ 3.00) Effectively gives 1.80 for the under and $ back for slightly over. The Crows are impotent up forward, and have scored 100 just once in their last 9 games (going back to last year obviously) Now with injuries to their most productive forwards give them even less of a chance to kick a decent score. Obviously the Dogs love to run and score, but 17.11 last week was a bit overblown, with Johnson kicking 8, and they only kicked 6.4 after half time. Adelaide are stil one of the most defensive teams in the AFL...allowed just 42 I50's last week, which was pretty much their av. from last year...Geelong allowed over 49...so it's tough to see the Doggies kicking too much over 100 here.

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Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

Pick Kangaroos +27.5 at $1.91 - (4/10)

Port Adelaide win 122-104 but the 18 point margin means we get the Kangaroos line up at $1.91 :clap

Nathan Lonie $1.80 vs Michael Wilson $1.90

Well you wouldnt read about it, Lonie & Wilson both finish with 17 disposals each meaning this bet is a loser :eyes

Daniel Wells $1.82 vs Brady Rawlings $1.88

Daniel Wells wins with 23 disposals to Rawlings 21 :clap

Pick Essendon Under 39.5 at $2.55 - (4/10)

Essendon win 122-112 so got the Under 39.5 margin up also :clap

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

3 votes? How many people overate this guy!? He wont have any votes so far this year Last week he got 8 disposals and didnt even score a point, while last night i highly doubt he will take home the 3 votes as he only got 16 touches and 1 goal. If he gets any votes ahead of guys like Nathan Ablett (5 goals, 16 disposals), Gary Ablett (2 goals, 28 disposals), Joel Corey (32 disposals), James Bartel (30 disposals) or Cam Mooney (5 goals, 14 disposals, 8 marks), then the Brownlow voting system is a joke.

No, I didn't say he'll get the three, but if the umps are doing their job he surely gets two, plus the one from last week gives him three in total. I don't think anyone here is overrating him but it's likely he will get 30 by Rd-22.

Dogs v. Crows under 182.5 (7 units@ 2.70)

Cruised it in Taza! It did look likely Adelaide would be keen to close things down a little. A juicy 1.60 Sportingbet Adelaide at half time. Incredibly 3.50 WBD offered by Acumen at same time, which was no value IMO. Near the end of the Adelaide game I thought I heard Gerard Healy suggest Freo had won??? So I thought stuff it, marked the spreadsheet with a hockey stick and sat down to watch where Ess went wrong. Even with 28 secs to go I still believed Freo would kick two, LOL. Bonus and the most relaxed I've been with action - except for that last half minute. :D

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Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

No, I didn't say he'll get the three, but if the umps are doing their job he surely gets two, plus the one from last week gives him three in total. I don't think anyone here is overrating him but it's likely he will get 30 by Rd-22.

Are you having a laugh here? Theres no way he would of got a vote last week, and he'll be lucky to pick up 1 last night. The reason i ask if your having laugh is because of the 30 vote statement. Please tell me your kidding? :lol

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Yes, it's the same old Ottens thus far and he may not poll one all season. Ottens biggest problems in the past have been fitness/injury and confidence. If both turn then he's a top-liner IMO. This is why guys like that are the bookies danger - bookies don't fear the punters walking about saying they predict Judd or Kerr and WCE for the flag. I.e. People backing the obvious (not that those examples can't necessarily be value). Similar with someone like Aaron Fiora. His biggest problem has been confidence, but knowing he's been working on that it was no surprise to see him go well first up. Similar with Freo last year & how their form turned. This is why Freo games are great to bet on. With Freo, while most punters will be shaping their price on form the real thing to look for is where their heads are at, so opposing the obvious (fixed beliefs about them) is a highly viable way to punt their games IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) LOL! Yeah...Gotta love hanging on a set shot after the silen to bring a bet home! I had full faith in Boydy to steer it wide ;) Freo had their chances late...(as you no doubt saw)...Pavlich missed an easy goal and then should have gotten a free kick directly in front with about 5 minutes to play. Not sure how Essendon would have gone if it was within a kick late in the game. Hoping for another total bet today...Hopefully the market will be artificially low after the results from last week. Melbourne off a game with St. Kilda, who are clearly far more defensive minded this season, and Hawthorn off Brisbane who appear to be more than happy to flood back and slowly, patiently work the ball up the ground. Not expecting a massive scoring game b any stretch, but hopefully enough to sneak over a low total... ...but anyway, I should just wait for a couple of hours and stop talking in hypotheticals!!

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) What's the chances these two today will be indirect and defensive? I think little! Hardwick (Hawks assistant) has already said they will play direct - I tend to believe him. Melbourne always come out head first after a wuss game. Will have an eye on this total myself.

[TazaD]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Melbourne v. Hawthorn over 196.5 (7 units@ 2.70) 176-195 (3 units @ 3.00) Effectively gives 1.80 for the over and $ back for slightly less. Already given my thoughts on why the set toal is too low here, but some extra numbers... Last 6 meetings have been 197 (last year), 217, 170, 189, 229 & 206. Hawthorn have allowed 100+ in 8 of their last 10 at the MCG @ 109. Another reason for the low total is Melbuorne's lack of scoring, in their last 5 they have av'd just 83 ppg...but two of those (inc. last week) were against the solid defense of the Saints, @ Geelong, @ Adealide and @ Freo! Dixon and Crawford back will help the Hawks' attack, and I don't think Melbourne can really match-up well with their quick forward line with Williams, Franklin and Dixon all running around. Should be some scoring on a fine, sunny day at the 'G.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) I don't really watch too much AFL these days except when the Lions play, so these bets are probably more uneducated than is healthy but rightly or wrongly, I figured them to be value Both teams to score 121+ points @ 130 1/10 TAB Hawks score 121+/Melb score 106-120 @ 71 1/10 TAB Laugh away, I know am :lol

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

I don't really watch too much AFL these days except when the Lions play, so these bets are probably more uneducated than is healthy but rightly or wrongly, I figured them to be value Both teams to score 121+ points @ 130 1/10 TAB Hawks score 121+/Melb score 106-120 @ 71 1/10 TAB Laugh away, I know am :lol

Doesn't look stupid to me Oscar.:hope Lasseters (a new book) are giving; Over 191.5 @ 2.65 172 - 191 @ 3.10 Also, no liquidity but people are willing to take 2.00 about under 185.5 at Betfair.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

I don't really watch too much AFL these days except when the Lions play, so these bets are probably more uneducated than is healthy but rightly or wrongly, I figured them to be value Both teams to score 121+ points @ 130 1/10 TAB Hawks score 121+/Melb score 106-120 @ 71 1/10 TAB Laugh away, I know am :lol

Back into obscurity I will go, tail between legs! Though I do have a nice set of bets lined up for next week, I'll crawl back out of my hole then :D

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Definately nothing to be ashamed of there Oscar. For a 71.00 shot you were extremely close. :clap Hawks seemed to want to revert to that poossession business early in the last which was almost costly. If they kept to the style of play that got them that far and Melbourne forwards were fit, your bet may have landed spot on. I was cursing Hawthorn myself because I backed them; 4.00 at 1/4 time and 1.68 at 1/2 time. Oh yes, nice total Taza :clap

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) While I am at it, any bookie other than the unfriendly TAB that offers the tri-bet market? It's a very important market for me this week ;)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

Definately nothing to be ashamed of there Oscar. For a 71.00 shot you were extremely close. :clap Hawks seemed to want to revert to that poossession business early in the last which was almost costly. If they kept to the style of play that got them that far and Melbourne forwards were fit, your bet may have landed spot on. I was cursing Hawthorn myself because I backed them; 4.00 at 1/4 time and 1.68 at 1/2 time.

It could have been worse as I almost backed Hawks 121/Melb 90-105, which would have just been that much more annoying given the Hawks missed an open shot late on. Not a huge AFL bettor but this is a market that is fairly new to my attentions and I'll look to try and exploit some value from it in future games as it seems prone to pricing errors.

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)

It could have been worse as I almost backed Hawks 121/Melb 90-105' date=' ...[/quote']What price was that? Dialabet Eskander Global Lasseters Norm Short

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Cheers Ash. The aforementioned scores double was paying I think 35.00 or 42.00. At the time I thought not enough value, but looking back at I was being greedy, and ignoring smaller odds because the two bets I did take had substantially better odds. With respect to the game itself, it probably was a case of me needing to closer examine the price with respect to the probability, rather than comparing the value of one bet to another. It's a bad habbit of mine! Can't say I have heard of any of those books except for Norm Short, though I do associate Lasseters with Neighbours... Anyway, the past 4 rivalry rounds (I consider a rivalry round any round where both the WA and SA teams face each other) have seen 15/32 games end with the Under 15.5 tri bet selection a winner. That's just under 50% probability, but the odds are always 3.00+! My theory behind this is that the SA/WA teams are really motivated against each other (applies to some of the other rivalries played that round too), and the remaining teams are generally evenly matched in skill as the superior teams are matched against each other. At least that is my rationale behind it.