Grand National Discussion Thread 2007

[Aykay1]

What is it now? 2 weeks to go? Here's some trends i've picked up from various websites and forums that should help. I've put the relevance of each stat in red afterwards. -------------------------------------------------------------------- In the last 66 years no horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National.The National arguably the toughest race in the racing calendar and a horse will need to be "savvy" to perform well in it. Horses younger than 8 dont usually have enough racing experience and struggle as a result. As a rule of thumb, younger horses tend to have more speed than stamina and dont last the distance. In the last 83 years no horse older than 12 has won the Grand National. Horses older than 12 are usually past their peak and in handicap terms are less exposed than some of the younger horses who may still have improvement in them. Since the war only five Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11 st 5 lbs and two of those were by Red Rum! The Grand National is a long stamina sapping race which is difficult to haul a big weight round. Those carrying less than 11 stone have historically performed better. Gay Trip (1970) was the last Grand National winner who hadn't previously won over at least three miles.Stamina is an absolute must to perform well in the National and a winning horse needs to see out the 4m 4f marathon distance. Any horses that hasnt proved its stamina over a minimum of 3m have evidently struggled. Every winner in the last ten years had won a race worth at least £17,000. Whilst the Grand National isnt the best quality race in the world, a horse does need a certain amount of class to win it. Bad horses dont win the race. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Each of the last ten Grand National winners had run at least ten times over fences before the start on the big day at Aintree. This ties in with the age trend. Experience is important in a race as tough and demanding as this one.

None of the last 10 winners had finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous Grand National Amberleigh House had been 3rd and Brought Down previously, whilst 2 others had previously fallen. If a horse has failed to perform in the National previously, he is unlikely to in the future, unless he has shown significant improvement. 9 of the last 10 winners had managed at least a placing in one of last 3 races. Stick to this trend and you will avoid out of form horses. Lord Gyllene was the exception from the last 10 years. Theres also a trend which says something along the lines of "a French bred horse hasnt won the race for 90 years" If anyone has this could they post it up please as I cant find it anywhere - Cheers :ok The thinking behind this one is that French horses arent bred for stamina because there arent many long distance races in France, where the onus is on speed. If a horse has stamina doubts and is French bred then its best to avoid it. Be careful with this one though as I believe Royal Auclair and Clan Royal are both French Bred and they have gone close in recent years.

[Carl]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread yep nice stats AK, bit busy at the mo but Ill give you my top 10 now and a little more reasoning after. Point Barrow (IRE) 9 10-12 P Hughes Mckelvey (IRE) 8 10-4 P Bowen Take The Stand (IRE) 11 10-12 P Bowen The Outlier (IRE) 9 10-5 Miss Venetia Williams Simon 8 10-11 J L earing Philson Run (IRE) 11 10-5 Nick Williams Dun Doire (IRE) 8 10-8 A J Martin Ossmoses (IRE) 10 10-5 D M Forster Bothar Na (IRE) 8 10-6 W P Mullins Homer Wells (IRE) 9 10-6 W P Mullins 2 interestingly enough run a week before the big day so its worth keeping an eye on those. Market mover Point Barrow is worth considering as the market moved the same way last year for Numbersixvalde.