Datapunter Posted March 23, 2007 Share Posted March 23, 2007 I'm having a go at some soccer trading. I will be laying the draw and then attempt to make a sure profit as soon as the first goal is scored. This basic strategy isn't new. You can find quite a few variations to the theme if you look around at some forums. And i think, but not sure, that the commercial product called "The Football Cash Generator" is also a variation to this theme. This thread will contain "in-play" bets and is an exception to the "no-after-eventing" rule under following conditions: 1) All intended trades are posted before the match starts. 2) All bets are posted asap time permitting 3) A summary of all bets per match is posted 4) A screen capture of all bets is provided in the proofing forum. For me this is a real-life strategy, i.e. i will be putting money on this but please don't expect a lot of profit. Most of the time i will start off by laying the draw and placing a cover bet on 0-0 ( or the 1 goal or more market ) This is the safest variation to the theme but also the least profitable one. For me this is more an exercise in discipline. My intention is to determine a strategy and then stick to it for at least 50 trades/bets. And along the way see what i can learn about myself in the discipline area. A bit of profit would be quite nice of course :lol And secondairy this is a test-case thread for posting about trading and "in-play" betting and hopefully it will give other people some ideas. Starting bank will be 1000 points and the maximum liability at any given time on any match will be no more than 25% of the running bank. Nothing mathematical about it, just common sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Whilst we where discussing "in-play" betting amongst the mods i did one match as example. So here's how it will work: Before each match i will post the intended strategy: Intended trade strategy: Derby vs Colchester , Derby being favourite as well as the Under being favoured i'm going with a lay of "1 goal or more" , lay of the draw , secure a profit on the first goal. - If the match end in 0-0 , let it all ride and come out break even. - If Colchester score first it's damage control time and i could end up needing to take a loss, will depend on what i'm seeing. - If Derby score first then go with a Derby win. Starting position: Lay draw 38.5 @ 3.6 Derby +38.5 Colchester +38.5 Draw -100.1 -------------------------- Lay "1 goal or more" 101 @ 1.1 1 goal or more -10.1 less than 1 goal +101 During the match, bets placed, time permitting. Well it's half-time now and the score is 3 - 0 to Derby, first goal came after 2 min and i traded by backing both the draw and Derby to following position: Derby +14.2 Colchester -4 Draw +11.3 -------------------------- 1 goal or more -10.1 less than 1 goal +101 Odds for Colchester where already close to 30.00 so i could have created a position of profit all around but decided to go with Derby for a while. I was going to use the 1.3 spare of the draw to back Colchester after a while but before luckily Derby scored again in the 20th minute and i let it all ride. Providing Derby win it will be a net profit of 4.1 ( before commission ) After the match a summary: Trade summary: Derby - Colchester has ended 5 - 1, things went according to plan, goal by favourite, stuck with the intended strategy, ended up with a 3.57 point profit ( after commission ) And then in the proofing forum a screen capture of all bets: ( the proofing forum is visible to all the mods as well as members running trading/in-play threads, currently about 50 people ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Time to get this show on the road, having a go at: Trade 1. 15:00 Manchester United - Blackburn Match odds : 1.35 - 5.2 - 13.5 1 goal or more : 1.05 Under/Over : 2.12 - 1.98 No pictures it seems for me so will keep the max. liability to 100 points. Strong home favourite and the Over favoured so i'm expecting a goal in this one. Going to cover "1 goal or more" for half the liability on the lay of the draw and see where we're at at half-time. ( still 0-0 at half time may reduce the liability on the draw but will hopefully alread be in profit by then ) Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.06 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 24 @ 5.2 Starting position: Man Utd +24 Blackburn +24 Draw -100 ------------------- no goals +50 1 goal or more -3 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Best of luck Erik Will be following this with interest :ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Good luck data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Blackburn score first :wall going to let it ride until half-time, another 15 min. odds currently are h2.3 - a3.3 - d3.7 odds for the draw are actually dropping, not rising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. HT covering my arse on the draw 21 @ 3.00 Man Utd +3 Blackburn +3 Draw -58 ----------------- 1 goal or more -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinTHFC Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Hmmm I left it running now 1:1. Need Utd to get another now ManU +20 Blackburn+20 Draw -92 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Need Utd to get another now would be nice :lol Man Utd must have been pushing pretty hard as the draw odds kept dropping, down to 2.88ish. Going to let things ride for a while hoping for another one by Man Utd. Draw odds down to 2.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinTHFC Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Man Utd must have been pushing pretty hard as the draw odds kept dropping' date=' down to 2.88ish. Going to let things ride for a while hoping for another one by Man Utd. Draw odds down to 2.54[/quote'] Listening on Radio 5 - Giggs just hit the bar from 2yds. Its all Utd but As I have my money on them it could be one those days:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Suspended :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinTHFC Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Got out just in case ManU 13 Blackburn 13 Draw 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Nice lads at Man Utd, 2-1 now, put a few bets on for this position Man Utd -1 Blackburn -45 Draw +3 ------------------ 1 goals or more -3 10 min to go, happy with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinTHFC Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. And then in the proofing forum a screen capture of all bets: ( the proofing forum is visible to all the mods as well as members running trading/in-play threads, currently about 50 people ) Is this by invite only or can anyone access the proofing forum? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 1 summary, Well the idea was for Man Utd to win but not this way :lol First goal by the underdog is not what i want but i'm happy the way i covered my liability as that is my priority. At 1-1 i intended to trade out as soon as the draw odds hit 2.00 which would have left me with a loss of about 25 points overall. Would have been happy with that. Luckily Man Utd scored before that to save the day with a 4 point loss. Bank at 996 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Now then Kevin, i welcome any suggestions and comments people might have, and i'm open to people having a go at the same matches and posting about them, but if you are going to add specific odds and stakes then you need to comply with the specific conditions of the thread: This thread will contain "in-play" bets and is an exception to the "no-after-eventing" rule under following conditions: 1) All intended trades are posted before the match starts. 2) All bets are posted asap time permitting 3) A summary of all bets per match is posted 4) A screen capture of all bets is provided in the proofing forum. The proofing forum is visible to all the moderators as well as any member that is running a thread with "in-play" bets. It's purpose is to make proofing of "after-event" bets possible and at the same time allow the member to retain some privacy. The rules are here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=45660 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Think i'll have a go at Barcelona in an hours time. Trade 2 22:00 Barcelona - Deportivo Match odds : 1.30 - 6.00 - 15.00 1 goal or more : 1.05 Under/Over : 2.18 - 1.83 On Sky Xtra but as the draw price is quite high on this one i'll also keep the max. liability to 100 points. Strong home favourite and the Over favoured so i'm expecting a goal in this one. Going to cover "1 goal or more" for half the liability on the lay of the draw and see where we're at at half-time. ( still 0-0 at half time may reduce the liability on the draw but will hopefully alread be in profit by then ) Deja-vu anyone :lol Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.06 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 20 @ 6.0 Starting position: Man Utd +20 Blackburn +20 Draw -100 ------------------- no goals +50 1 goal or more -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. havent had the time/brain energy to look at this yet, but hope its the start of a successful thread mate :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. i welcome any suggestions and comments people might have, Personally I think you are playing games that are too easy to predict. Given the way the odds move if the 'wrong' team scores you are basically wanting the favourite to open the scoring. In essence, it appears to me as if you are finding a difficult and inefficient way of essentially backing the massive favourite to win or at the very least score first. I've nothing against the system or idea at all, but just feel that you aren't using particularly good games. IMO something like the dutch Eredivise would be better, where there are typically lots of goals allowing you to play games where there isn't a big team who'll massively dictate the price movements. Just my thoughts anyway, and good luck with whatever matches you choose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Thanks CP , i'm not particularly looking for strong home favourites, more a co-incidence that those are the 2 starters. I'm hoping to learn/find the right balance between liability , game type , strategy as i go along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munki Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Good luck with this DP. I followed a similar strategy for a while but my downfall was not knowing when to trade out and accept a loss when things went against me.I think discipline is the key to success here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Nice, goal by barcelona just before the second half, i'm going with the assumption they'll go on to win it so placed some bet to following position: Barcelona +12 Deportivo +3 Draw +3 ------------------ 1 goal or more -3 So barcelona win gets me +9 points, any other result break even. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. 8 min in second half and 2-0 it seems (wasn't watching anymore :lol ), small lay bet at 1.01 gets me +11.5 all around :ok ( unmatched as i post but shouldn't be long as price is at 1.01 ) Profit overall should be about +8 all around after commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Ok ok next time i'll wait until the bet actually gets matched :$ , 2-1 now but the 1.01 wasn't matched yet, so still on +12 +3 +3 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 2 summary Went pretty much according to plan, goal by Barcelona, traded for profit or break even. With hindsight i think i should have layed Barcelona at 1.02 as soon as they went 2-0. Maybe not so much for a come-back by Deportivo but for another trade at 2-1 increasing the profit on Barcelona. Result +8 after commission. Bank at 1004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Well done on the Barce game DP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Well done on the Barce game DP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 1, 2007 Author Share Posted April 1, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. thanks Staffy, Trade 3 17:00cet Tottenham vs Reading Match odds: 1.78 - 3.6 - 6.0 1 goal or more: 1.07 Under/Over: 2.16/1.85 Home favourite but not outspoken and the Over being favoured. Again going with cover bet of half the liability on the draw. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.08 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 38 @ 3.65 Opening position: Tottenham +38 Reading +38 Draw -100 ------------------------- no goals +50 1 goal or more -4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinTHFC Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Hi DP, Could you let me know your thinking on your bet covering half of the liability if its 0:0 ? Is there an advantage in doing that rather than just laying the draw for 17 in the first place? Cheers Kevin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 1, 2007 Author Share Posted April 1, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. It comes down to managing liability, i will cover the 0-0 fully if the game is expected to end Under, if the game is expected Over then the chance of 1 goal is bigger and i'm willing to take a bit more risk. You could leave out the cover bet completely, that will give you more profit when things go right and a big loss if you do hit a 0-0. At this point i actually don't know where the advantage is. ( therefore i'm more inclined to play it safe and use the cover bet ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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