Crouch Potato Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 In the final round of trial matches before the NRL season kicks off the spotlight is firmly on the annual Charity Shield clash between Souths and the Dragons. In something that last year could only be described as a freakish occurence, Souths are now favourites in a game where betting opened up with both teams equal favourites. Hard to argue with this as the South's forward pack, dominated by Kiwi Internationals looks highly impressive, whilst conversely, the Dragons pack looks brittle and gravely inexperienced. Over the off-season they lost Bailey and international Jason Ryles has been ruled out and Justin Poore is suspended. Occupying the front row this week are Dan Hunt and Chris Houston, and if they don't match up, the "Houston, we have a problem" line will be flying about left, right and centre. I have a few bets in mind, but will wait til closer to kick-off before proceeding as things can inevitably change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons DRAGONS 1. Josh Morris 2. Luke MacDougall 3. Wes Naiqama 4. Matt Cooper 5. Chase Stanley 6. Mark Gasnier 7. Ben Hornby 8. Chris Houston 9. Simon Woolford 10. Dan Hunt 11. Ashton Sims 12. Beau Scott 13. Ben Creagh Subs: 14. Adam Peek 15. Danny Wicks 16. Corey Payne 18. Lagi Setu 19. Ben Ellis 20. Charlie Leaeno 21. Ricky Thorby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons SOUTHS 1) David Peachey 2) Paul Mellor 3) Nigel Vagana 4) Shannon Hegarty 5) Reece Simmonds 6) John Sutton 7) Joe Williams 8) Peter Cusack © 9) Stuart Webb 10) Roy Asotasi 11) David Kidwell © 12) Luke Stuart 13) David Fa'alogo Interchange: 14) Daniel Irvine 15) Dean Widders 16) Scott Geddes 17) Manase Manuokafoa 18) Joe Galuvao 19) Jaiman Lowe 20) Shane Rigon 21) Jeremy Smith 22) Germaine Paulson 23) Fetuli Talanoa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons Souths price continues to crash and is into as low as 1.60 with Sportingbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons Look forward to your thoughts Crouch Potato :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons My original thoughts on the game don't appear to be as solid as I initally thought so I've had to adjust my bets. I was hoping that one team one open up with favouritism so I could play a handicap but don't really feel that is an option now, even with the adjusted prices. However, I have been able to make one bet so far as I feel that anything that happens between now and tomorrow wont influence it. Dragons Team Score Under 20.5pts @ 1.64 average (TAB) - NOTE: To place this bet you need to dutch two selections on TAB's St George Illawarra Team Score Market. 0-10pts is paying $4.50 whilst 11-20pts pays $2.60. Stake 64% of your total on 11-20 and 36% on 0-10. If 11-20 comes in you'll get a 66% return and if the 0-10 comes in you'll get a 62% return. Originally I was hoping to back both teams game score 11-20pts but following the team news announcement and opening of the markets I'm less certain about that now. The Dragons pack looks pretty weak and the absence of Matthew Head is also a blow. Souths look quite strong and I expect that their pack, including Widders, Asotasi and Kidwell will put Souths on top. However, last season you wouldn't trust Souths with a +8.5 start, so trusting them to win this soon is also something I'm pretty dubious about, particularly now they are clear favourites. What I am pretty confident about though, is the Dragons wont score too many points. For starters, their goalkicking doesn't look to be too strong, with Wes Naiqama likely to take on that role. He's had some problems with the police this week and I'm not sure his mind will be totally on the job anyway. More importantly, their new halves pairing of Gasnier and Hornby is at best average and smells a little makeshift. Hornby has played most of his career at halfback and Gasnier at centre. Whilst Hornby played solidly at half last season he was able to work with Trent Barrett and it was Barrett who did most of the playmaking. Tomorrow these two will be asked to somehow guide the team in attack behind a pack that looks massively outclassed on paper. Being a trial game surprises can happen, but even at a price of 1.62-1.66 I'm pretty certain this is a good bet. Sidenote: Historically, the Dragons have scored Over 20.5 pts in 6 of the 23 Charity Shield matches, or in 26% of the games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons The O/U Game Points line is one to look out for too. I am expecting it to be 38.5 in which case there will be limited value, if any, but if it by some half miracle it opens up at 44.5 or bigger than unders is definitely the way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons Most of the first try-scorer markets are up on the sites where I have accounts and so now I can take the best price on the player whom I was wanting to back, which is David Kidwell. David Kidwell First Try Scorer @ 29 Sportingbet Kidwell is one of the more prolific try scoring forwards in the game. In attack he likes to operate on the fringes of the right flank and with the Dragons forwards a little inexperienced there's a chance a hole will open up for him or that he'll carry a couple over the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 3, 2007 Author Share Posted March 3, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons That Total Points O/U market never surfaced :( Still, I think there is some value, though limited, in the alternative. Total Game Points 31-40 @ 3.10 TAB ------ Dean Widders Last Try Scorer @ 21 TAB Neither team possesses a goalkicker of any great quality and I am confident that the game score wont exceed 40. 31-40 will be at the races and in the last 5 charity shields it has been the winner twice, and on the other 3 occassions missed out by 1pt, 2pts and 5pts respectively. The danger is the total falling between 21-30, with a scoreline like 22-6 or 14-12, as it was last year. As for the try scorer bet, Widders will come off the bench tonight and as he showed at Parramatta he can be quite the impact player. A lazy and/or tired Saints defence could easily be exposed late on by the big kiwi and at 21 it's worth a shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 3, 2007 Author Share Posted March 3, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons Couldn't help myself, I've taken Souths 13+ @ 3.55 with Betfair. Probably the weakest bet of the lot but most of the bookies are at 3s or below for this option and whilst I'm not as convinced as some that Souths will win, if they do win I think it could well be by a big margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 3, 2007 Author Share Posted March 3, 2007 Re: RL: Charity Shield - South Sydney v St George Illawarra Dragons Fulltime Dragons 16-14 Souths Poor ball control and 5th tackle option really cost Souths who really should have won this game. An intercept try to Hornby to win the game really sums up the nigt for the Bunnies. As for me, an absolutely horrible betting attempt. Originally fancied both teams to score 11-20 but I ignored that to go for a couple of other option. Again, a horrible horrible attempt and I can't forget this game soon enough :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.