Chance of going broke with level stakes betting

[LaMunxo]

I'm sure some of the math guys will know the formula for this, here is the question: When picking odds O (2.0 for example) with H (lets say 60%) hitrate and start bank B. What is the chance C of loosing X% of bank(100% = bankruptcy) over Y bets? Edit: Staking strategy is also important, lets say stakes are flat, 1% of bank. In endless row the chance of loosing is zero and yield is O*H (20% for those values above) but what is it in real life, smaller runs - 50,100,1000 etc bets. Please post if u have the formula which covers this luck factor. Thank You!

[MetallicIan]

Re: Luck Factor - Bankrupcy Math Hi LaMunxo! great question. Whenever I have a similar question I find that my maths is not quite up to solving things to a simple formula, I tend to write a program in basic (either qbasic or VB). Nothing is ever idealistic except for "real life" conditions but I find that the following is as near as you get... Set up a parameter for Odds (O), Strike Rate (SR), and others for start bank, number of bets and stake. What I do is use the RND function to generate a random number between 0 and 100. In your case with a 60% SR, anything generated above 60% would be counted as a loss. Run the program for x number of bets. Then loop the program to run say 10,000 times and output the average scenarios. With 10,000 you usually find the most common outcome. You will not only be able to see final profit/loss, but also estimate longest losing/winning streaks etc. Also a simple excel formula I use to estimate longest losing streaks is this one... =ROUND(LN(500)/-LN((1-0.60)),0) where 500 is the total number of bets, and 0.60 is your Strike rate (in this case 60%). In this example the answer is 7. Hope this helps. Ian.:ok