Clotty Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 For the past several months, I've been consuming myself with betting information, trying to gain bigger edge's over the competition and, ultimately generate bigger profits. Due to having a friends in high places, I got the privilege of being given access to just about every system going and, while most of them are junk, I got some gems that have skyrocketed my profits. On top of this, I came into contact with some of the guys who make a living from betting - again, I learned a lot from that. Anyway, I've now decided to come out of my secret laboratory of ratings systems, betting strategies and trading softwares to try and pass on lots of what I've learned. One thing I have on my agenda is creating a freely available publication of what I've discovered one needs to do to have any chance of profiting from football betting - hopefully I can get this done soon after the new year and have it freely available for download for anyone who wants it (if the mods permit me to, that is). Anyway, in the mean time, I wanted to share an interesting trend I found and trial it in this thread. Using a modelling program I created, I'm hopinf to be able to generate probabilities for 1X2, over/under, correct score and asian handicap bets on football. It's still under construction. In the meantime, however, I can still use it to good effect with corner probabilities. I'm using some statistics to generate as accurate a figure I can for the average number of corners a game will have. Once that is done, I plug the average value in and use logit regression to calculate probabilities of the game have X amount of corners. I compared my predicted odds, with the predicted odds offered by Bet365 and what I found was pretty nifty :) . My predicted probabilities suggested that when Bet365 offered odds for over or under X amount of corners, they always offered bad value. However, if you be on their being exactly X amount of corners, you get good value. Sometimes Bet365 make this figures 11 corners, sometimes them make it 10 corners. From my studies, when betting on exactly 11 corners, you get some kind of value, but it's usually nothing to shout about. However, when they offer odds on over/under/exactly 10 you get much, much more value. For example, my predictions suggest the Fulham game on the weekend should have odds of 8.07, where Bet365 offer 8.5 I think the corners market, may be an area where Bet365 are a little lax on. 99.9% of people won't be betting on the exactly bet when it comes to corner, I think bet365 know this, so they push those over/under odds down, which consequently increases the exactly odds. I'll be testing on games where they are offering odds on their being exactly 10 corners. If this proves to be profitable, I'll look at odds for exactly 11 corners. I'll use a bank of 100 units and stake 2% of the bank on each selection. If anyone knows a bookmaker who offers more generous odds on this market, than Bet365 please let me know - it could make all the difference. I have tried oddschecker, but they don't have any info on this market. This might be well or it could die on its :moon , but it's definitely worth looking at, in my opinion. Here's to hoping this system makes some kind of profit :cheers - Joshua. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contration... Sounds good Clotty, I'd be interested to read your "publication". How much backtesting of corner stats have you done (what's your sample size like?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contration... Hi Clotty, I too would be interested to see what you have come up with. As for this weekends Fulham v West Ham game, Bet365 have moved their 'exact' line to 11 - looks like you've got them scared already! You can access corner markets at: http://odds.bestbetting.com/ GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted December 22, 2006 Author Share Posted December 22, 2006 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... How much backtesting of corner stats have you done (what's your sample size like?) I have no sample size. What I'm doing is looking at what averages the spread books (particularly spreadfair) are coming up with and coming to an average from that. It think it's the best way to go about business as statistics prove that P2P market places are something like 96% accurate in coming to true figures. And David, thanks for the link. I make it that there are only two Premiership games with odds for the exactly 10 corners market. They are Man. City vs. Bolton and Wigan vs. Chelsea. The odds for both games are 8.5. My predictions claim the Wigan/Chelsea game should only have odds of 8.04. I can't find corner predictions on any of the spread books for the Man. City game - I'm not sure why, though (all the other games seem have it :wall ). For this reason, I've decided to leave them out of this week's bets. On the other hand, however, Betdaq are offering odds on corners for the Villa vs. Man. Utd game. While the market is based on whether there is or isn't 11 corners. The odds you can get for exactly 11 corners with them are 9.2, which is significantly greater than the price of 8.50 offered by Bet365 (and incidentally, is also the predicted price given by my program). Even after commissions, all suggestions would lead to the conclusion that 9.2 is good value and, for this reason, I'll be including it on this weeks bet. To get an idea of whether this system could be profitable or not in a shorter space of time, I might need to expand to leagues other than the Premiership. Perhaps, I'll look into that for next week. - Joshua. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted December 22, 2006 Author Share Posted December 22, 2006 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contration... By the way, if anyone's wondering, contration is not actually a word (as far as I know anyway). I meant to type contraption. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Sounds good, looking forward to seeing the results:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted December 26, 2006 Author Share Posted December 26, 2006 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... According to the results on the Sky Sports website, the two bets on Saturday lost. The annoying thing was that the game I couldn't get predictions for (because the spreads didn't have a corners market), had exactly 10 corners. Incidentally, I ran the predictions with the averages Paul does and the results suggested that the odds should have been as low as 8.11 (so it should have been a bet, really).:wall For today I have three bets to make... Exactly 10 Corners Cheslea vs. Reading - 8.50 Bet365 (My predictions say it should be 8.03) Exactly 10 Corners Blackburn vs. Liverpool - 8.50 Bet365 (My predictions say it should be 8.07) Exactly 10 Corners Bolton vs. Newcastle - 8.50 Bet365 (My predictions say it should be 8.25) I couldn't find a corners marker on any of the spread for the last game, so I'm just using Paul's corner averages. I think that covers everything for now - I'll post profit/loss figures and the rest after these games have finished... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted December 30, 2006 Author Share Posted December 30, 2006 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Have had no time to post results up as, yet, but I do know it's been a disappointing start so far with no winning bets (well, that's if we don't count the Bolton vs. Man. City game). Having said that, I think there have been a few games with 11 corners, so I'll keep and eye out for how that progresses. I make it that there is only one qualifying game in the Premiership on Saturday, as Bet365 have their corners line set at 11 for the other games. The bet we do have is Chelsea vs. Fulham. For exactly 10 corners, Bet365 offer odds of 8.5. Fingers crossed... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted December 31, 2006 Author Share Posted December 31, 2006 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... The last game had exactly 10 corners, so we get our first winner. I've calculated the results and they look as follows... Actual bet record Total staked12 Total returned17 Yield1.41666742%Winners1 Losers5 Strike Rate17% Current bank105 Profit/Loss5 It's obviously way too early to get too optimistic, but I think the signs at the moment are promising. This is especially true when you consider the Bolton vs. Man. City game, that hasn't been taken into consideration, which I still haven't got over :wall . - Josh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted January 5, 2007 Author Share Posted January 5, 2007 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Brief update - Due to the FA Cup I won't be trialling this system this week. Also, I woke up too late on the 1st January to record/post selections but there were a handful of games that had exactly 10 corners. Hope it's not a flash in the pan - I guess we'll find out when the Premiership resumes. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... All odds for there being exactly 10 corners in these games are 8.50 with Bet365. The games that Bet365 have a line of 10 on are... Watford vs. Liverpool Bolton vs. Man. City Chelsea vs. Wigan As a side note the "publication" I mentioned in earlier posts should be ready in a week or two. I'm going to try and put it in video form and stream it into small segments for viewing online - I think it'll be a lot easier than simply reading a bland .pdf file. Good luck with the weekend's betting, Josh. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Hi, Clotty and good luck. Where will you post your "publication"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted January 15, 2007 Author Share Posted January 15, 2007 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Dices - I'll probably just put it up for download somewhere and post the link. All odds for there being exactly 10 corners in these games are 8.50 with Bet365. The games that Bet365 have a line of 10 on are... Watford vs. Liverpool Bolton vs. Man. City Chelsea vs. Wigan Pretty good weekend with the Chelski game coming up with precisely 10 corners. As a side point, I think the Watford game had 15 corners and the Bolton game 8 or 9. Profit/loss figures look as follows... Actual bet record Total staked18 Total returned34 Yield1.88888989%Winners2 Losers7 Strike Rate22% Current bank116 Profit/Loss16 Hopefully this continues to profit, Josh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted January 19, 2007 Author Share Posted January 19, 2007 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Only qualifier I can find is Liverpool vs. Chelsea. As per usual we'll be backing 'exactly 10 corners' at odds of 8.50. Cheers and happy weekend's punting, Josh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted January 20, 2007 Author Share Posted January 20, 2007 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Exactly 10 corners in the game and we have another winner. As they are results are looking impressive and considering I missed two winners the weekend I was unable to post and did not count the Bolton game during the first week, they could be even better. :dude Fingers crosed this isn't a flash in the pan :hope I'm having problems with Excel at the moment and I've been told to download OpenOffice (I think that's what its called anyway), so I'm gonna do that and see if I get any luck with it. Once I get the blasted thing to work, I'll post profit/loss figures up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 2, 2007 Author Share Posted February 2, 2007 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Bad news on the publication front. Software I am using to make the videos decided it didn't want to work anymore and when I compress the files into windows media format, it won't come out with sound (which is a big problem, really). I've decided to just do it in ebook form now and if I do a little bit each day, should be done in a couple of weeks or so. As far as this system is concerned, there is just one selection this weekend, which is Blackburn vs. Sheff. Utd. Same odds as normal (8.50), same bookmaker (Bet365) and same event (exactly 10 corners). I've fixed the Excel, problem and so will update results after this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 9, 2007 Author Share Posted February 9, 2007 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Couldn't find any qualifiers for this week. I'm hoping Bet365 haven't just made it policy to have the corners line set at 11 on all games :hope . - Josh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublecee Posted March 18, 2007 Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption... Hi Clotty, your system is very interesting. Have you given up? Do hope not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.