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Contrary System (US Sports based)

Valiant23

By Valiant23
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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Valiant23

Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Cheers vitalyo :D

New York have lost 3 ATS (Miami w2) Miami Heat @ NY Nicks(-3) @ 1.94 Coral :D Denver have lost 4 ATS (Memphis w2) Denver Nuggets(-2) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.93 Coral :D Orlando have lost 4 and Chicago have won 4 ATS Orlando Magic(+7) @ chicago Bulls @ 1.90 Pinnacle :D 3 x 10pt bets :hope
3 winners 0 losers 30pts staked 57.7pts returned Total staked:3150 Number of bets:315 Winning bets:173 Losing bets:132 Push bets:10 Strike rate:54.92% Current bank:1328.51 Profit (or Loss):328.51 Yield:10.43%
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Valiant23

Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Phoenix have won 2 AND Indiana have lost 2 ATS Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers(+6) @ 2.04 Pinnacle Dallas have won 2 AND Minnesota have lost 4 ATS Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves(+5) @ 1.97 Pinnacle Golden State have lost 3 AND Milwaukee have won 2 ATS Golden State Warriors(+6) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 1.98 Pinnacle 3 x 10pt bets :hope

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Valiant23

Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Phoenix have won 2 AND Indiana have lost 2 ATS Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers(+6) @ 2.04 Pinnacle :( Dallas have won 2 AND Minnesota have lost 4 ATS Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves(+5) @ 1.97 Pinnacle :( Golden State have lost 3 AND Milwaukee have won 2 ATS Golden State Warriors(+6) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 1.98 Pinnacle :( 3 x 10pt bets :hope
0 winners 3 losers Total staked:3180 Number of bets:318 Winning bets:173 Losing bets:135 Push bets:10 Strike rate:54.40% Current bank:1298.51 Profit (or Loss):298.51 Yield:9.38%
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vitalyo

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Phoenix have won 3 ATS (Philly w1) Phoenix Suns @ Philadelphia 76ers(+8) @ 2.02 Golden State have lost 4 ATS (Chicago l1) Golden State(+12) @ Chicago Bears @ 2.00:rollin:rollin:rollin 2 x 10pt bets
N1. GL.
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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) NCAA? Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.... A friend had a look and said the results weren't encouraging so I passed on it. I think the skill gap in College Sports is too wide, but I'm prepared to be proved wrong.

Phoenix have won 3 ATS (Philly w1) Phoenix Suns @ Philadelphia 76ers(+8) @ 2.02 :D Golden State have lost 4 ATS (Chicago l1) Golden State(+12) @ Chicago Bears @ 2.00 :( 2 x 10pt bets
1 winner 1 loser 20pts staked 20.20pts returned. :unsure Total staked:3200 Number of bets:320 Winning bets:174 Losing bets:136 Push bets:10 Strike rate:54.38% Current bank:1298.71 Profit (or Loss):298.71 Yield:9.33%
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Mr. B

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Valiant' date=' did you think about american kollege basketball? I choose yesterday 6 match with your criteria and only 2 was good. Any experience with this?[/quote'] What about MLB? any ideas...
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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

What about MLB? any ideas...
Major League Baseball isn't suitable as it's schedule consists of series of games against the same opponents, and so a team could go on a 4 game losing streak with all of the games against the same opponent. I do have an idea that may keep me occupied during the summer months, but until I've tested it I'd rather not say anything.
Dallas have won 3 ATS (Cleveland w1) Cleveland Cavalier(+10) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 1.92 Expekt :D 1 x 10pt bet :hope
1 winner 10pts staked 19.20pts returned. Total staked:3210 Number of bets:321 Winning bets:175 Losing bets:136 Push bets:10 Strike rate:54.52% Current bank:1307.91 Profit (or Loss):307.91 Yield:9.59%
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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Memphis have lost 2 AND Philly have won 2 ATS Memphis Grizzlies(+5.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 1.94 Pinnacle Milwaukee have won 3 ATS (Toronto w1) Milwaukee Bucks(+5) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.96 Pinnacle Golden State have lost 5 ATS (NY lost1) Golden State Warriors(+5) @ New York Knicks @ 1.95 Minnesota have lost 5 ATS (Utah w1) Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves(+2) @ 1.92 Pinnacle Houston have lost 2 AND Denver have won 2 ATS Houston Roclets(+2.5) @ Denver Nuggets @ 1.93 Pinnacle Indiana have lost 3 ATS (Phoenix lost1) Indiana Pacers(+10.5) @ Phoenix Suns @ 1.94 Pinnacle LA Lakers have won 3 ATS (Sacramento w1) Sacramento Kings(+7) @ LA Lakers @ 2.02 Pinnacle 7 x 10pt bets :hope

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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Hi Valiant. Why do you pick Houston over Denver? they are in the same situation
Mate I thought I'd made a mistake somewhere because of the amount of games selected yesterday but I've just checked and according to statfox; Houston vs Toronto 90-106 - lost (ATS of -5) vs Boston 72-77 - lost (ATS of -6.5) Denver vs Orlando 111-101 - won (ATS of -5.5) @ Memphis 111-107 - won (ATS of -3)
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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Memphis have lost 2 AND Philly have won 2 ATS Memphis Grizzlies(+5.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 1.94 Pinnacle :eek :D Milwaukee have won 3 ATS (Toronto w1) Milwaukee Bucks(+5) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.96 Pinnacle Golden State have lost 5 ATS (NY lost1) Golden State Warriors(+5) @ New York Knicks @ 1.95 :( Minnesota have lost 5 ATS (Utah w1) Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves(+2) @ 1.92 Pinnacle :( Houston have lost 2 AND Denver have won 2 ATS Houston Roclets(+2.5) @ Denver Nuggets @ 1.93 Pinnacle :D Indiana have lost 3 ATS (Phoenix lost1) Indiana Pacers(+10.5) @ Phoenix Suns @ 1.94 Pinnacle :( LA Lakers have won 3 ATS (Sacramento w1) Sacramento Kings(+7) @ LA Lakers @ 2.02 Pinnacle :D 7 x 10pt bets :hope
CORRECTION This should be; Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors(-5) @ 1.94 Pinnacle. :( :ok
3 winners 4 losers 70pts staked 58.90pts returned Total staked:3280 Number of bets:328 Winning bets:178 Losing bets:140 Push bets:10 Strike rate:54.27% Current bank:1296.81 Profit (or Loss):296.81 Yield:9.05%
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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) San Antonio have won 3 ATS (Houston W1) San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets(+4) @ 1.95 Pinnacle Indiana have lost 4 ATS AND the LA Clippers have won 2 Indiana Pacers(+3) @ LA Clippers @ 1.90 Pinnacle 2 x 10pt bets :hope

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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

San Antonio have won 3 ATS (Houston W1) San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets(+4) @ 1.95 Pinnacle Indiana have lost 4 ATS AND the LA Clippers have won 2 Indiana Pacers(+3) @ LA Clippers @ 1.90 Pinnacle 2 x 10pt bets :hope
0 winners 2 losers 20pts staked 0pts returned Total staked:3300 Number of bets:330 Winning bets:178 Losing bets:142 Push bets:10 Strike rate:53.94% Current bank:1276.81 Profit (or Loss):276.81 Yield:8.39%
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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Just the one game tonight; Minnesota have lost 5 ATS AND Boston have won 3 Minnesota Timberwolves(+1) @ Boston Celtics @ 1.95 Bet365 10pts staked :hope
1 loser Total staked:3310 Number of bets:331 Winning bets:178 Losing bets:143 Push bets:10 Strike rate:53.78% Current bank:1266.81 Profit (or Loss):266.81 Yield:8.06% :(
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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Will do DP. :ok As soon as it starts working again! :lol :$ I'll do tonights picks then answer. Cleveland have won 3 ATS (Houston L1) Houston Rockets(+3) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 1.91 Pinnacle Detroit have lost 3 ATS (Golden State W1) Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons(-12) @ 1.92 Pinnacle Utah jazz have won 3 ATS (Charlotte have W1) Charlotte Bobcats(+14) @ Utah Jazz @ 1.97 Pinnacle 3 x 10 pts bets :hope

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Datapunter

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Right, you're jinxed now :lol tonight i make it: Seattle(+2) to win L3 - New York W2 Minnesota(-1.5) to win L7 - LA Lakers W1 Portland(?) to win L1 - San Antonio W4 Indiana(+4.5) to win L5 - Sacramento W3 correct ?

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Valiant23

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Uh ohhhhhh :\ Yeah......... :unsure :D :D :D Although the lines could have moved. Right an explanation... Taken from post #1

Something I have been watching elsewhere is a study regarding the parity of NFL teams and ATS (Against The Spread or Handicap) betting. The thinking behind the theory is that because of this parity on any given Sunday one NFL team can beat another. This is backed up by a study which claims that a high percentage of teams who have an ATS streak of 2 or more wins or losses would do the opposite in the third game.
Carbon Copies I believe that this happens more in US sports such as NFL and NBA because they use a draft system to introduce new talent. IF you don't know how it works it means that in theory the worst teams get the best chances of cherry-picking from the new batch of talent each year. This doesn't always pan out though because teams are allowed to 'trade' picks but regardless the players who are in the draft are put through a series of drills and the stats are (over?) analyzed by the teams. I believe that its because these stats are used by all the teams you end up with carbon copy players whose individuality comes from the 'x' factor that separates Wayne Rooney from being another slightly overweight talented footballer, or Ronaldinho from just another skinny midfielder. So, all these teams have (in the vast majority, imo) a very close 'skills gap'. Which means that a good team only has to underperform slightly and a poorer team over perform slighly and then you have a potential shock. There is definitely a smaller gap between the best and worst NFL teams than there is in football. Human Nature I think that its likely that a team on a winning streak will become complacent and a team on a losing streak will become determined to change their fortunes, and this can contribute in the shift of performance levels. Cappers, Line-makers and Joe Public Regardless of all that I've already typed I still believe that this is primarily a bookie system rather than a sports system because if there was no handicap betting then I would have nothing to bet on. The linemakers in Vegas make their lines and open them on where they think the game will end in order to give the books as good a chance as possible of making a profit, and then the bookies will shave these lines depending on their own particular slant or information. It can't be discounted that they have to consider whether they can either tempt or dissuade the mug punter to bet in large amounts on a Public favourite (such as Indianapolis Colts). I also believe that they have to follow (to an extent) a rule that says if a team is winning then we don't want to lose a lot of money on it, so they make the handicap bigger and the reverse can be said of losing teams. Now thats where I come in because no losing team (according to the stats) loses forever and no winning team wins forever. Even a team who can go unbeaten throughout a season will not win every game ATS (Against the Spread). If they did I imagine it would be akin to Frankie winning every race. So, in very simple terms, I hope to take advantage of the bookies by going against the betting trends. Just to add I believe this system will be very sucessful next year in the NFL (I could back test it and provide figures if needed), and I believe it will be profitable in NBA. Whether this proves to be the case or not. Who knows? :unsure I'm not saying that this explanation is definitive either because I think the reasons I've stated individually would not be enough, but I think that together, along wiith human error, injuries, scheduling, player bans etc they all work together and make for a very entertaining betting (and sports) season. PS I also think it helps that its possible to assume the odds of any future games you bet on, and a such have a definite strike rate for success.
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