Cheltenham outsider lays

[Seen2001]

I was looking at the stats for Cheltenham last night, and found some interesting stuff regarding 4yo and 5yo runners. The first thing I noticed was that horses aged 4 and 5 which were 25/1 or bigger in the betting fc had a terrible record... 387 runs 1 win 0.25% ..233 of these were 50/1 SP or bigger, but that still leaves just 1 win from 154 runs at 40/1 or shorter. So the true chance of a 4 or 5yo horse put in at 25/1 or longer in the fc and starts no longer than 40/1 is actually 153/1.

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Looking now at the SP ranges, we can see the actual chance of a horse compared to their price... 4yo and 5yo horses running at the Cheltenham Festival SP 8/1 - true odds 9.5/1 SP 10/1 - true odds 11.5/1 SP 12/1 to 14/1 - true odds 22/1 SP 16/1 to 18/1 - true odds 23/1 SP 20/1 to 22/1 - true odds 65/1 SP 25/1 to 28/1 - true odds 78/1 SP 33/1 to 40/1 - true odds 138/1 SP 50/1+ - true odds 285/1 Clearly, the odds are more or less in line up to 10/1, then they suddenly increase rapidly. Those which start at 20/1 or bigger are appalling value. Laying at big odds is not my cup of tea - by laying a 33/1 shot which is 60.0 on Betfair you'd have to risk 300 quid just to win a fiver, but the place market is less risky. Looking at those 4 and 5yos that are sent off at 20/1 to 40/1 SP, the chance of them winning is 93/1 and the chance of them placing is 13/1. So logically if we can lay them for a place at shorter than 13/1 then we are getting value. Here's todays place lays.... 2.00 LACDOUDAL 5.9 ZUM SEE 6.6 LOCKSMITH 8.6 2.40 LE DUC 8.0 ROYALEETY 8.2 3.20 GOLDEN CROSS 11.0 5.20 MUTINEER 8.0

[Seen2001]

Re: Cheltenham outsider lays Wed 2.00 COMPLY OR DIE (7.8) 4.00 STARZAAN (5.8) MON VILLEZ (7.6)