Seen2001 Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 I was looking at the stats for Cheltenham last night, and found some interesting stuff regarding 4yo and 5yo runners. The first thing I noticed was that horses aged 4 and 5 which were 25/1 or bigger in the betting fc had a terrible record... 387 runs 1 win 0.25% ..233 of these were 50/1 SP or bigger, but that still leaves just 1 win from 154 runs at 40/1 or shorter. So the true chance of a 4 or 5yo horse put in at 25/1 or longer in the fc and starts no longer than 40/1 is actually 153/1. ----------------------- Looking now at the SP ranges, we can see the actual chance of a horse compared to their price... 4yo and 5yo horses running at the Cheltenham Festival SP 8/1 - true odds 9.5/1 SP 10/1 - true odds 11.5/1 SP 12/1 to 14/1 - true odds 22/1 SP 16/1 to 18/1 - true odds 23/1 SP 20/1 to 22/1 - true odds 65/1 SP 25/1 to 28/1 - true odds 78/1 SP 33/1 to 40/1 - true odds 138/1 SP 50/1+ - true odds 285/1 Clearly, the odds are more or less in line up to 10/1, then they suddenly increase rapidly. Those which start at 20/1 or bigger are appalling value. Laying at big odds is not my cup of tea - by laying a 33/1 shot which is 60.0 on Betfair you'd have to risk 300 quid just to win a fiver, but the place market is less risky. Looking at those 4 and 5yos that are sent off at 20/1 to 40/1 SP, the chance of them winning is 93/1 and the chance of them placing is 13/1. So logically if we can lay them for a place at shorter than 13/1 then we are getting value. Here's todays place lays.... 2.00 LACDOUDAL 5.9 ZUM SEE 6.6 LOCKSMITH 8.6 2.40 LE DUC 8.0 ROYALEETY 8.2 3.20 GOLDEN CROSS 11.0 5.20 MUTINEER 8.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seen2001 Posted March 17, 2004 Author Share Posted March 17, 2004 Re: Cheltenham outsider lays Wed 2.00 COMPLY OR DIE (7.8) 4.00 STARZAAN (5.8) MON VILLEZ (7.6) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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