Aykays Wednesday Cheltenham Selections

[Aykay1]

R&SA CHASE No winner of the Reynoldstown chase has succeeded since 1973, in fact the last 18 such horses have all lost. This puts a negative against OUR VIC. Add to this the fact that only one 6 year old has won the race in the last 10 years and i shall be opposing the favourite here. Having said that, this isnt really a race to be looking at outsiders. 9 of the last 10 winners have been in the first 5 in the betting. We have a shortlist of PIZARRO, ROYAL EMPEROR, CALLING BRAVE. ROYAL EMPEROR has performed admirably in 2 of his 3 races over fences, falling in the other when jumping badly. There may be valid excuses for that particular race but its enought to cast doubts in my mind and i shall cross him off also. In any case, he hasnt beaten much in his 2 completed starts. CALLING BRAVE was impreesive last time out but Henderson has been quoted as saying his horse wants soft ground. He wont be getting that today. PIZZARO remains and is the selection against the favourite CORAL CUP As 5 year olds dont get a weight allowance, we can discard them from the reckoning. From 47 attempts, only 1 has placed. Horses carrying more than 11 stone have a poor record - only 2 winners in the last 10 have succeeded. 7 from the remaining 8 have carried less than 10 stone 5lb's. The other significant trend is that 8/10 winners had no more than 3 starts that season. The remaining 2 only had 4. We have a shortlist of GALILEO,BOW STRADA, INCA TRAIL, DROMLEASE EXPRESS & FOLY PLEASANT. The presence of RHINESTONE COWBOY means that all of these bar GALILEO will be racing from outside the handicap. He is our first selection from the shortlist of 5. DROMLEA EXPRESS is the other. The Irish have a good record in this race: They had the first 5 home in 1999, 4 of the first 5 in 1998, 2 of the first 4 in 2003, the first 3 in 1995 and 2 of the first 3 in 1994. A big if here, but IF REDEMPTION jumps well, i expect him to go close. Small each way bet here. MILDMAY OF FLETE Only Elfast, a previous winner of the race has carried more than 11 stone to victory. 29 of the last 32 horses filling the win and place positions have been at least placed last time out. This leaves us with JAKARI, IZNOGOUD & TIKRAM. Tikram was on the verge of being pulled out of this race by trainer G Moore due to tiredness last time out. This doesnt inspire confidence. JAKARI is from last years winning stable, who are bullish about his chances, he will be there or thereabouts. The selection is IZNOGOUD who represents the stable who has won this 4 of the last 6 runnings. Pipe loves the 20 furlong chases over here. His 6 successes in the Thomas Pink prove that and IZNOGOUD ran well last time, is well handicapped on previous form and looks ready to peak. BETS: 235 - PIZZARO @ 9/2 Sporting Odds - each way 400 - GALILEO @ 40/1 Sporting Odds - each way 400 - DROMLEASE EXPRESS @ 10/1 Sporting Odds - each way 400 - REDEMPTION @ 22/1 Stanleybet - each way 510 - IZNOGOUD @ 7/1 Sportingodds - each way 510 - JAKARI @ 7/1 Sporting Odds - each way.

[Aykay1]

235 - Analysis 235 - R&SA Chase - Analysis Well OUR VIC kept the Reynoldstown Chase trend going. He is now the 19th consecutive winner of that race to fail to win here. My selection PIZZARO was brought down 2 out when it 4th position but in all honestly wouldnt have got better than a placing. The winner, at 25/1 was well outside the top 5 in the betting so this trend was overturned.