happygooner Posted October 22, 2006 Share Posted October 22, 2006 Just an idea but after trying a steady 3% drip, using many various sports, and really not enough discipline I need a rethink. By only placing bets (singles or doubles max) on the home favourite, surely the amount of bets lost would be proportionate (if not under) to those won. Therefore with a strict and rigid attempt at 3% increase for every bet, and for every bet lost the next target is still attempted but at slightly higher stake, in the long run you would surely attain target most days and even surpass it. I'm just interested to know you experienced heads views on this? For example a double bet placed today on Roma & Fiorentina to win at home. If this comes in the next target could be attempted with Tottenham at home. If Roma or Fiorentina (maybe both) fail then the attempt at next target is still made with Tottenham but at slightly higher stake and so on. Does that make sense?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 23, 2006 Author Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Betting on home favourites alone with either singles or doubles max is something I've been thinking about recently since things started going a little up and down with just general various picks. I decided that although not every favourite by a long shot will come in, the majority at anything under evens will still tend to end up that way. Therefore if after every loss where you attempted to reach a given target, you kept that target for the next bet, and staked slightly higher the profit would still end up the same as if all or most were wins. The potential is there to lose on what you had but if you think about 1/3 or even a 1/1 odds game, logic suggests that if your next bet doesn't come in then the one after will and if not certainly the next should. I gave it a go last night firstly betting on a Serie A double which lost out narrowly due to Roma drawing with Chievo. I then placed a higher stake on Spurs beating West Ham to attain the target I was trying to reach with prev bet. I did a double on FC Copenhagen & Stromsgodset for the next which both came in. I then placed on River Plate (Uruguay) to win at home while also placing on AC Milan & Slavia Prague. River Plate won so next target achieved. Both Milan and Slavia failed so next target not reached yet. In attempting to attain that next target with new bet a stake to cover both previous losing bets was placed on Sporting Cristal in Peruvian league. This came in so money from 2 lost bets was made back and then some. Final bet for the night was on Corinthians who went on to win. So with all of the above in mind regardless of the fact there were losses these were easily made up with interest on next bet. Going at 3% target for each bet you probably have only 4 chances at a loss before bank is severely hurt. Taking that down to maybe 1 or 2% for each bet would mean between 8 & 12 losers on the trot. Surely a good home favourite is going to provide you with a win long before you get to that stage. With several bets placed per day you could even attempt a 3% increment on bank each day while only playing safe with 1% bets for the majority. Does anyone have any comments on this idea???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve1966 Posted October 23, 2006 Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Not a bad idea. I've thought of doing something similar so it'll be interesting to see how you get on. My idea was you start off with say a £1500 bank and place a bet, say £30 on a team which you would expect to win, say 1.5. If that goes down you then place a bet of say £100 at again odds of 1.5. If that then goes down the next bet would be about £300 at similar odds. If the that goes down its all in, £1070 at 1.5. Chances are your going to get 1 up which would put you in profit. Only downside is if the 1st 3 lose then your having to lump a massive amount on your final bet. The only other alternative is to bet on sides with even lower odds hence more likely chance of them winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 23, 2006 Author Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Not a bad idea. I've thought of doing something similar so it'll be interesting to see how you get on. My idea was you start off with say a £1500 bank and place a bet, say £30 on a team which you would expect to win, say 1.5. If that goes down you then place a bet of say £100 at again odds of 1.5. If that then goes down the next bet would be about £300 at similar odds. If the that goes down its all in, £1070 at 1.5. Chances are your going to get 1 up which would put you in profit. Only downside is if the 1st 3 lose then your having to lump a massive amount on your final bet. The only other alternative is to bet on sides with even lower odds hence more likely chance of them winning. But to use myself as an example. With a bank of approx £30.00 now and wanting to increase by 3% if poss for every bet. A lot of bets (or doubles if the 2 or at least 1 of the teams is very favourable) can be found with odds just under evens. That means a bet of under £1.00 roughly is required for each step at present. This will go up of course but at this time allowing for losing bets while trying to attain the next target (£30+£1) you could maybe present it as such: £30 loser = Bank £29.00 £29 loser = bank £27.00 £27 loser = bank £23.00 £23 loser = bank £15.00 £15.00 loser = bank.....BUST Obviously with lower odds these bets decrease but with a more likely outcome of each bet coming in so less likely to come across alot of losers. But with a 2% target for each bet it would look something like this: £30.00 loser = bank £29.30 £29.30 loser = bank £27.90 £27.90 loser = bank £25.10 £25.10 loser = bank £19.60 £19.60 loser = bank still at £8.40 so room to start again.... Again the number of safe bets would decrease as the odds decrease but again strike rate should be high enough to cope. And finally for a 1% target: £30.00 loser = bank £29.60 £29.60 loser = bank £28.90 £28.90 loser = bank £27.50 £27.50 loser = bank £24.70 £24.70 loser = bank £19.10 £19.10 loser = bank still at £7.90 after 6 probable favourites failing on the trot These are approximate figures only but with sensible betting I can't see why in theory it wouldn't work. Especially if when a larger amount is reached you begin to take an even more frugal stance on relative attempted increases to bank.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 23, 2006 Author Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Not a bad idea. I've thought of doing something similar so it'll be interesting to see how you get on. My idea was you start off with say a £1500 bank and place a bet, say £30 on a team which you would expect to win, say 1.5. If that goes down you then place a bet of say £100 at again odds of 1.5. If that then goes down the next bet would be about £300 at similar odds. If the that goes down its all in, £1070 at 1.5. Chances are your going to get 1 up which would put you in profit. Only downside is if the 1st 3 lose then your having to lump a massive amount on your final bet. The only other alternative is to bet on sides with even lower odds hence more likely chance of them winning. Of course lowering the odds too dramatically is stil not guaranteed and means that in order to hit any sort of target you are already lumping a fair amount on the bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted October 23, 2006 Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Just picked Germany bundes 1 at random,16/36 were home wins so far this season at average odds less than 2.That does not look too hopeful for what you are proposing.Some leagues may be better but there is no guarantee they will continue to provide better strike rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted October 23, 2006 Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Bundes 2 however, av. odds 1.75 or less 17/20 ...1.76-1.99 .. 5/16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted October 23, 2006 Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Does anyone have any comments on this idea????What ever way it's dressed up, it sounds like a Martindale. Great in theory, just make sure you get the winner before the bank runs out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted October 23, 2006 Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites It most certainly is martingale. In so many cases you will find that best looking bets are surprise losers and this is the downfall of martingale applied to sports betting. The only way I have found to mitigate this is to run about 20 concurrent martingale lines ,not a perfect answer, but the profits from 18 or 19 that are ok can cover losses of 1 maybe 2 losing runs. I would also suggest that you do not do more than 3 selections per run,just accept the loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 23, 2006 Author Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Ok I take everybodies point but surely if all you need to do is have 1 win a day then it could withstand only 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 bets coming in as long as you didn't stake too much at each level. Today for instance I put a small amount on Pana to beat AEK. When that failed I put a very small amount on Gothenburg and Lillestrom to win (double) odds were over 2 so stake could be less and still looked fairly plausible. When that failed i thought long and hard. Despite Coventry not being overly consistent they seemed a good bet at home against Colchester and so it proved. 1/1 odds allowed a fairly small stake which still made up for losses and attained a target/new level. If the final bet tonight had failed I would have started again tomorrow and took a fresh look at all matches containing home favourites. I'm in early stages at the moment and not even sure myself how far I can go with it or whether there is any chance at all of long term success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 23, 2006 Author Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Ok I take everybodies point but surely if all you need to do is have 1 win a day then it could withstand only 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 bets coming in as long as you didn't stake too much at each level. Today for instance I put a small amount on Pana to beat AEK. When that failed I put a very small amount on Gothenburg and Lillestrom to win (double) odds were over 2 so stake could be less and still looked fairly plausible. When that failed i thought long and hard. Despite Coventry not being overly consistent they seemed a good bet at home against Colchester and so it proved. 1/1 odds allowed a fairly small stake which still made up for losses and attained a target/new level. If the final bet tonight had failed I would have started again tomorrow and took a fresh look at all matches containing home favourites. I'm in early stages at the moment and not even sure myself how far I can go with it or whether there is any chance at all of long term success. I see what you mean about a martingale now (and there was me thinking I was so clever haha!!) and seems to be ill advised. However, that said I will try it to a certain extent but make sure never to try and play catch up for too long. Succeed or lose a bit and start again on a lower level maybe. Long and short is I've put aside £10.00 stake at the beginning of this month that is currently very much in credit and whatever happens with this £10.00 is not going to break my actual bank and is therefore just an experiment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melbFC Posted October 24, 2006 Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Not a bad idea. I've thought of doing something similar so it'll be interesting to see how you get on. My idea was you start off with say a £1500 bank and place a bet, say £30 on a team which you would expect to win, say 1.5. If that goes down you then place a bet of say £100 at again odds of 1.5. If that then goes down the next bet would be about £300 at similar odds. If the that goes down its all in, £1070 at 1.5. Chances are your going to get 1 up which would put you in profit. Only downside is if the 1st 3 lose then your having to lump a massive amount on your final bet. The only other alternative is to bet on sides with even lower odds hence more likely chance of them winning. I tried this on Roulette and got 9 straight losers:unsure It would be interesting to see how it works with sports bet though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper Posted October 24, 2006 Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Always remember that the Martingale is also known as the Fools System!! I remember 'discovering' it for myself ten years ago and thinking I was the first person to think of it! Never tried it at a casino but did try it with 5 concurrent lines playing football matches ending with 2 or 3 goals, usually at odds of EVS with Blue Square. One month into the season and starting with £2 stakes I remember being faced with the prospect of putting £256 on a match to claw back my losses on that line and bottled it and never tried the system since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 24, 2006 Author Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Always remember that the Martingale is also known as the Fools System!! I remember 'discovering' it for myself ten years ago and thinking I was the first person to think of it! Never tried it at a casino but did try it with 5 concurrent lines playing football matches ending with 2 or 3 goals, usually at odds of EVS with Blue Square. One month into the season and starting with £2 stakes I remember being faced with the prospect of putting £256 on a match to claw back my losses on that line and bottled it and never tried the system since. But with a small amount of modification so you never allow yourself too chase losses too large (take it on the chin and suck it up) and always betting on the home favourite could something along these lines work. Not strictly a martingale but a system/strategy using more discipline. I never intend to go for odds over on a single but occasionally on a double, as each under team can well make up an over evens bet. The majority of bets would be less than evens clearly implying the bookies favour them. Like I said I'm not about to throw any huge life changing/breaking money on this but interested to see what I can achieve with my £10.00 stake. If it ends up nothing then so be it. I lost £10....meh As the bank increases it may well be that I decide to stake on a far more conservative basis. 3% to 2%, 2% to 1%, 1% to 0.5% etc etc..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 24, 2006 Author Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Could there be a degree of sense in picking mainly 1/6 (or similar) odds while trying to reach a lower target? The target being reached (no matter how low a %) is still steady growth and while maximising the likelyhood of bet winning while minimising stake required to do this there is surely more room for the odd bet to lose. 8 or 9 losing bets in a row is surely not that likely on such low odds as 1/6 (excluding certain international games for their utterly unpredictable nature)? If you were trying to obtain for example 0.5% for each bet and you had £100.00 to play with you only need make 50p. On a 1/6 odds bet you'd stake £3.00 so at the end of it you are still left with £97.00 if the worst comes to the worst. £91.00 for the next bet, £79.00 for the next, £55.00 for the next.....and getting much beyond that how many more losses could possibly be expected on 1/6 odds?:unsure Actually forget everything I have said there as my maths clearly isn't up to speed. I can see at that rate and those odds you'd be bankrupt in no time.:$ The potential pitfalls are there for everybody to see and the more I talk about it the more I can see how much nerve and discipline would be required. And how much somebody could regret the day they ever came across the idea. I would be interested to know if there has ever been a case study of such low odds failing one after the other until somebody's bank was wiped out? Just with what I estimated above 5 bets is all it would take if you followed it all the way to the end. I suppose it's probably not too hard to imagine 5 losers on the trot at 1/6? Again this assumes my calculation at the top was correct which we've already established....it is not!!!:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 24, 2006 Author Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites How about for every loss you only tried to maintain the current level rather than exceeding it? Lower odds and higher probability? 1.7 - 2.00 and slightly lower regularity of win? Is it all completely doomed as is looking the case haha??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted October 25, 2006 Share Posted October 25, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites Countless people have gone this way and there hasn't been a winner yet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
russwheeler Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Always betting on home favourites I tried this on Roulette and got 9 straight losers:unsure It would be interesting to see how it works with sports bet though. hahah me and my mates did too. we slightly tweaked it so if it kept coming up black, we would be doubling up on red but still putting a £1 on black. that way we would be doubling up, but winning the £1 on black each time. then when the red does finally land we made a £1 on that and the loss started on the blacks. basically it was £1 a spin of the wheel. we used to go down straight after uni, at about 5:30 when there was no-one there, and just sit around talkign rubbish coining in about 60 spins an hour. i.e. £20p/h each. we thought we were set. the fall came when the £512 bankrole we had gathered together got wiped with a run of about 9 or maybe 10 (think we could cover 8, 9 took us out, then a 10th came in after just to rub it in!!) my mate then went on and robbed a 24 hour shop, after getting drunk on a bottle of jack, cos he'd 'borrowed' the money of his parents holiday jar to play. he openly admits he deserved to do his time, saying it was the single most stupid thing he had or could ever do. it was just his logic after a bottle of jack was, 'why had he never done it before?? it was so easy!! it was like a free ATM!!' got away with it for 2.5 years too, until one of his mates little bros said it was him that punched someone, when he got nicked they took his DNA and matched it with something from the scene he'd left behind 2.5 years earlier. 2.5 years!!! you'd have stopped sweating at sirens after that time, and thought you got away with it!!! be warned punters. never martingale!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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