rustyg Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Going to try this system: I have a computer program that predicts the % probability of the home draw and away results. The predicted probability is based only on current form, with the most recent form weighed most. Will use this system on the main football leagues, and any match where the home or away selection is ranked above a threshold percentage will be a selection. I don't have any back dated figures, but will give it a go anyway. This is a paper trial for the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Computer selected football home and aways Selections for tonight: Gravesend to beat Stafford Rangers 10pts @ 1.71 Dagenham R to beat St Albans 10pts @ 1.46 Burton (A) to beat Forest Green 10pts @ 2.3 All prices betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Computer selected football home and aways rustyg, I do something very similar, although not quite there yet. I have only done the premiership so far and use a raft of different variables which I put through a statistical modelling process. Backtesting shows I would have finished last season with a yield of 10%. However, if you've got some form variables I havent incorporated, this can only help make my model better. Would you mind sharing your variables.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: Computer selected football home and aways Hi Plopplop, Sorry can't be of much help. The program I have was written a long time ago by a friend of mine and I don't really know how he configured the variables. Good luck with your model though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Computer selected football home and aways Okay - no bother. I've just started a thread about the stuff I do - you might find it interesting.....although it is a little long........http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36219 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted October 13, 2006 Author Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Computer selected football home and aways Midweek results: Gravesend 1 Stafford Rangers 4 :@ -10pts Dagenham 4 St Albans 2 :ok +4.37pts Burton 0 Forest Green 1 :@ -10pts On the day -15.63 pts. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 984.37 Total Staked: 30 W/L: 1/2 Profit/Loss: -15.63 Yield: -52.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyg Posted October 13, 2006 Author Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Computer selected football home and aways Selections for today: Maastricht to beat Cambuur 10pts @ 1.71 Veendam to beat FC Eindhoven 10pts @ 1.53 Dordrecht to beat De Graafschap 10pts @ 2.28 FC Omniw to beat Fortuna Si 10pts @ 1.84 Reims to beat Tours 10pts @ 1.58 Metz to beat Creteil 10pts @ 1.41 All prices betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruudje Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Computer selected football home and aways Do you also have some money management system in place? I think that 10 point strength on each of these matches (assuming this means 10/10 rating) is brave to say the least. Especially Dordrecht is a very tricky pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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