WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 30, 2006 Share Posted September 30, 2006 Ive decided to start the system I mentioned in this thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=35541 First of all, its a paper trial. Some looking back at past results has been done but nothing indepth so please dont get too involved if you're going to play along. Right the system itself. Well, more a strategy. No solid filters established for picking qualifiers. A lot will be done by past results and a feel for the score. I also aim most bets to have a potential yield of around 20%. There may be exceptions though when the stats look favourable. The concept. What we are going to be doing is laying the corret score markets on Betfair. We will be laying two results, the 0-0 and the Any Unquoted. Laying theses two bets gives us any 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-0 0-2 2-1 1-2 2-2 3-0 0-3 3-1 1-3 3-2 2-3 3-3 scorelines as profitable results. This will be done with a starting bank of 100pts with each bet having a liability of roughly 5pts. All profits are quoted after commission. Stakes may be revised after landmark increases of bank.ie. 100% growth. The liability stated is the maximum liability. If a bet loses it may be that the loss is slightly less than this. This is as losses are attempted to balance whichever the result but are not always exact. Thanks to MetallicIan for his formula in his Betfair Profits thread. Itll save me loads of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted September 30, 2006 Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Not Too Much, Not Too Little (Correct Scores) Interesting stuff indeed mate. Good luck. Will pop in now and then to see how it prospers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 30, 2006 Author Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Not Too Much, Not Too Little (Correct Scores) First two bets for tommorrow. There may be some more. Ill put them up when Ive had a better look. Bet 1 Man Utd - Newcastle 0-0 = 0.40pts @ 15.5 Any UQ = 0.87pts @ 7.2 P.Profit: 1.21pts Liability: 4.98pts Bet 2 West Ham - Reading 0-0 = 0.57pts @ 10.5 Any UQ = 0.41pts @ 14.5 P.Profit: 0.93pts Liability: 5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 30, 2006 Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Not Too Much, Not Too Little (Correct Scores) Good luck WFTE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 30, 2006 Author Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Not Too Much, Not Too Little (Correct Scores) Thanks Guys Bet 3 Falkirk - Celtic 0-0 = 0.33pts @ 19.0 Any UQ = 0.99pts @ 6.4 P.Profit: 1.25pts Liability: 5pts Bet 4 Hearts - Dundee 0-0 = 0.35pts @ 18.0 Any UQ = 0.99pts @ 6.4 P.Profit: 1.27pts Liability: 5pts Bet 5 Rangers - Aberdeen 0-0 = 0.34pts @ 18.5 Any UQ = 0.92pts @ 6.8 P.Profit = 1.20pts Liability= 5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 30, 2006 Author Share Posted September 30, 2006 Re: Not Too Much, Not Too Little (Correct Scores) Bet 6 Westerlo - Club Brugge 0-0 = 0.35pts @ 17.0 Any UQ = 0.62pts @ 9.6 P.Profit: 0.92pts Liability: 4.98pts Bet 7 Utrecht - Ajax 0-0 = 0.36pts @ 17.0 Any UQ = 0.74pts @ 8.2 P.Profit: 1.04pts Liability: 5.02pts Bet 8 Feyenoord - Breda 0-0 = 0.31 @ 22.0 Any UQ = 1.52pts @ 4.5 P.Profit: 1.74pts Liability: 5.01pts Bet 9 Heerenveen - PSV 0-0 = 0.34pts @ 18.0 Any UQ = 0.78pts @ 7.8 P.Profit: 1.06pts Liability: 5pts Bet 10 Fiorentina - Catania 0-0 = 0.40pts @ 15.5 Any UQ = 0.81pts @ 7.6 P.Profit: 1.15pts Liability: 4.99pts Bet 11 Benfica - Aves 0-0 = 0.39pts @ 17.0 Any UQ = 1.17pts @ 5.6 P.Profit: 1.48pts Liability: 5.07pts I didnt expect quite so many, hope I havnt overstretched myself. These selections were a combo of stats, value and posts from the Euro threads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Not Too Much, Not Too Little (Correct Scores) I wish you good luck with bet 11, Benfica is lowsy at the moment, but the captain Rui Costa is back from an injury and playing this weekend, so let's hope for the best! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Not Too Much, Not Too Little (Correct Scores) The EPL tends to pan out surprisingly close to Poisson - more so than most - so at least you know what you're up against. In the 380 matches of last season: 8.4% = 0-0 9.0% = 'any unquoted' . . . just a question of laying the right 82.6% of games, then ;) Good luck with it ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: Not Too Much, Not Too Little (Correct Scores) Not the best of starts. 8 from 11 but a small loss. I may stick just to the English leagues, or at least wait for a few more games in the others. Bet 1 = WON = +1.21 Bet 2 = WON = +0.93 Bet 3 = WON = +1.25 Bet 4 = LOST = -5.00 Bet 5 = WON = +1.20 Bet 6 = WON = +0.92 Bet 7 = WON = +1.04 Bet 8 = WON = +1.74 Bet 9 = LOST = -5.00 Bet 10 = WON = +1.15 Bet 11 = LOST = -5.00 Profit/Loss = -5.56 The Figures Bets: 11 Won: 8 Strikerate: 72.73% Staked: 55.06pts Profit: -5.56pts Yield: -10.10% New Bank: 94.44pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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