even total goals. +1.8% yield. 374 bets.

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. none today eddie. one tuesday and one wednesday. wednesday's stake depends on tuesday's result as you know. if tuesday wins the yield rockets back up to 24.7%

		BOX 7		stake	result	profit
10-Oct	conf	York	Cambridge	1	L	-1.00
13-Oct	champ	Southend	Coventry	3	L	-3.00
14-Oct	prem	Arsenal	Watford	6.9	L	-6.90
17-Oct	champ	Barnsley	Plymouth	15.87

[Kanga]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets.

i'm sure that there's a scientific principle that observation affects the experiment. Schrodinger's cat - quantum indeterminacy or the observer's paradox that's just what happened this weekend.:sad

Then carry on with the strategy but just don't watch - :loon

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. exactly. no watching anybody. keep the cat in the box. :spank

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. this is level stake on the premiership for 13 seasons: profit yield 8.1% yield on LEVEL stakes after 13.25 seasons.

[Kanga]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. With 1.90 being across the board on all matches - is it too simplistic to say that you are selecting the matches that gives you this 8% advantage ?

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. yes, i think it would be kanga. (?) i do not compile prices for odds/evens and then look for value. i use past results for the teams and select from this.

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. just for my own reference really - the %s and fair odds for even games over the last 3 complete seasons. france obviously does well with more draws (yawn) than most euro leagues.

1.80	55.62%	france
1.83	54.77%	norway
1.88	53.3%	sweden
1.88	53.28%	italy
1.88	53.27%	germany
1.93	51.68%	finland
1.95	51.41%	epl
1.96	50.97%	spain
2.03	49.23%	holland
2.05	48.83%	spl
2.12	47.17%	portugal

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. i can't believe bet365 will offer a bog standard no brained 1.90 on the weekend's french league for even goals! i checked now and they are not up yet (probably waiting for the european fixtures to clear) but they do blanket 1.90 across

Johnstone’s Paint Trophy
UEFA Champions League	UEFA Cup
Barclays Premiership	Coca-Cola League Championship
Coca-Cola League One	Coca-Cola League Two
Nationwide Conference	Scottish Premier League
Italy Serie B	Germany Bundesliga II
Austria Bundesliga	Campeonato Brasileiro
Danish Super Ligaen	Holland Eredivisie
Norwegian Cup	Portuguese Superliga
Swedish Allsvenskanliga	Swedish Cup

i CANNOT BELIEVE IT!!!!!!! :beer

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. in fact the history for evens is awesome, taken from 4660 games:

ALL	53.3%	1.88
0607	47.8%	2.09
0506	56.3%	1.78
0405	57.9%	1.73
0304	52.6%	1.90
0203	55.5%	1.80
0102	51.6%	1.94
0001	47.4%	2.11
9900	49.7%	2.01
9899	52.9%	1.89
9798	50.0%	2.00
9697	56.3%	1.78
9596	55.5%	1.80
9495	51.3%	1.95
9394	53.7%	1.86

[Kanga]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. Looks like you've found a great edge to exploit there muppet !!

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. it appeared so kanga, but after putting 13.25 seasons worth of data through the machine it gave a poor show compared to the premiership:

	france	epl
strike	51.1%	55.9%
yield	11.0%	21.5%
mult factor	2.3	2.3

that's really strange - the league with the highest amount of draws and highest % of evens doesn't beat the good ol' epl. the frence league threw up a huge string of losing runs: france av maximum losing run every season = 5.4 epl av maximum losing run every season = 4.6 france had seasons with 9,8,8,7... epl had seasons with 8,6,6...... the french yields were also erratic ranging from 8.6% to 30.5% while the epl is more steady, ranging from 16.8% to 33.4%, excluding this season. weird how it works eh? :sad

[Kanga]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. Interesting stuff - As you crunch the numbers don't forget that you can always back the odds - many good lay systems came from failed back attempts - LOL

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets.

21 Oct 16:15		Lille v Lorient		1.95	1.90	+14
21 Oct 19:00		Monaco v Toulouse		1.95	1.90	+14
21 Oct 19:00		Nancy v Nantes		1.95	1.90	+14
21 Oct 19:00		Rennes v Nice		1.95	1.90	+14
21 Oct 19:00		Sedan v Lens		1.95	1.90	+14
21 Oct 19:00		Sochaux v Bordeaux		1.95	1.90	+14
21 Oct 19:00		St Etienne v Le Mans		1.95	1.90	+14
21 Oct 19:00		Valenciennes v Troyes		1.95	1.90	+14
22 Oct 16:30		Auxerre v PSG		1.95	1.90	+14
22 Oct 20:00		Marseille v Lyon		1.95	1.90

and there it is..................1.90s everywhere!

[eddie4]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. Well done Muppet had a good result tonight..:cheers

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 3% yield. 18 bets. :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap one winner last night, one selection for tonight.

		BOX 7		stake	result	profit
10-Oct	conf	York	Cambridge	1	L	-1.00
13-Oct	champ	Southend	Coventry	3	L	-3.00
14-Oct	prem	Arsenal	Watford	6.9	L	-6.90
17-Oct	champ	Barnsley	Plymouth	15.87	W	14.28
		BOX 8		stake	result	profit
14-Oct	prem	Middlesboro	Everton	1	L	-1.00
18-Oct	champ	Colchester	Sheffield Weds	3

start bank	200
bank now	215.78
all odds	1.90
bets	19
wins	9
strike	47.4%
av stake	3.36
av profit	0.83
total staked	63.77
profit	15.78
yield	24.7%

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 24% yield. 19 bets.

		63.77	15.78	24.7%
	level	staked	profit	yield
BOX 1	complete	13.00	4.10	31.5%
BOX 2	complete	13.00	4.10	31.5%
BOX 3	complete	1.00	0.90	90.0%
BOX 4	complete	4.00	1.70	42.5%
BOX 5	complete	1.00	0.90	90.0%
BOX 6	complete	1.00	0.90	90.0%
BOX 7	complete	26.77	3.38	12.6%
BOX 8	1	1.00	-1.00	-100.0%
BOX 9	complete	1.00	0.90	90.0%
BOX 10	complete	1.00	0.90	90.0%
BOX 11	1	1.00	-1.00	-100.0%

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 24% yield. 19 bets. another winner last night:

		BOX 8		stake	result	profit
14-Oct	prem	Middlesboro	Everton	1	L	-1.00
18-Oct	champ	Colchester	Sheffield Weds	3	W	2.70

start bank	£200.00
bank now	£218.55
av odds	1.90
bets	20
wins	10
strike	50.0%
fair odds	2.00
av stake	£3.34
av profit	£0.93
total staked	£66.77
profit	£18.55
yield	27.8%

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets.

		BOX 11		stake	result	profit
14-Oct	champ	Sheffield Weds	Barnsley	1	L	-1.00
21-Oct	prem	Charlton	Watford	3
		BOX 12		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	prem	Middlesboro	Newcastle	1
		BOX 13		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Leicester	Crystal Palace	1
		BOX 14		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Preston	Hull	1
		BOX 15		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Sheffield Weds	QPR	1
		BOX 16		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Southampton	Stoke	1
		BOX 17		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Sunderland	Barnsley	1

here's saturday's bets. one more to come for sunday and one more for monday.

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets. just got slightly better odds on betdaq for the prem games. the stake and odds after commission are shown.

	21-Oct	prem	Charlton	Watford	3	1.941
21-Oct	prem	Middlesboro	Newcastle	1	1.912

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets. middlesboro newcastle is of course on SUNDAY 22nd oct.

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets. interestingly enough, level stakes on the 20 bets so far would give a profit of -1 or a yield of -5%

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets. just for my own reference - the approximate chance of there being no more goals (ie staying even or odd) according to the minutes played:

	min	chance
61	36%
71	49%
81	67%
86	79%

this will vary by about +/- 0.5% depending on the difference in strength of the two teams.

[vicebet]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets. Hi..i've been following this thread since its beginning. Everything seems fine except this :

osses	stake	mult factor
0	1.00	0
1	3.00	3
2	6.90	2.3
3	15.87	2.3
4	36.50	2.3
5	83.95	2.3
6	193.09	2.3

Firstly, stakes ranging from 1-190 is a large difference. Dont think can find any online betting giving bet limits at such range. If betting on deposit ones then would require LARGEEEEEEEE amount considering the numbers of boxes... can it be apply in reality? what happens if the losing streaks goes on to 7,8,9 and above... if this goes on for years i believe it will happen at least once... just once it takes and all will be wipe out..? Well.. if the answer is NO it wont happen.. then i'm in full support!! :dude

[eddie4]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets. just been to bet365 Southampton game is 1.85.... taking libertys !!

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets.

just been to bet365 Southampton game is 1.85.... taking libertys !!

bit cheeky isn't it? betoddoreven.com and ladbrokes are hovering around the 1.85 too. oh well, a random game like this is made up for by the higher premiership odds on betdaq.

Firstly, stakes ranging from 1-190 is a large difference. Dont think can find any online betting giving bet limits at such range. If betting on deposit ones then would require LARGEEEEEEEE amount considering the numbers of boxes... can it be apply in reality? what happens if the losing streaks goes on to 7,8,9 and above... if this goes on for years i believe it will happen at least once... just once it takes and all will be wipe out..? Well.. if the answer is NO it wont happen.. then i'm in full support!! :dude

hi betvice. thanks for the interest and advice. the premiership has had ONE 7 losing streak in 13 and a quarter seasons. i am aware of the risks of a "blow out" - but i think that they have been assessed. :hope have a little read of post 136, where this issue has been discussed further. please keep contributing everyone!! :clap

[vicebet]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets.

the premiership has had ONE 7 losing streak in 13 and a quarter seasons

How do you figure that? You've been testing this for 13 seasons? Sorry if i'm wrong, i mean...streaks in a box is random based on selection rite..? So although, let say.. they will be no 7 in row EVEN of a team, but it can have 7 in row in a box. Who knows if one is unlucky enough to put all the ODD score games in a single box.:unsure Neway,will be watching closely. Flat staking+value+accuracy=profit.;)

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets.

what happens if the losing streaks goes on to 7,8,9 and above....if this goes on for years i believe it will happen at least once... just once it takes and all will be wipe out..?

i've been thinking about this. the bank will hopefully steadily increase as more and more bets are made. this accumulation will help to fund a larger bet.

		average stake	average profit
	seasons	per season	per season
prem	13	£423	£83
champ	13	£970	£121

as you can see, the average profit will build a bank to enable bets for 6,7,8 losses to be made. :hope i have no idea how quickly or slowly i will reach a 6,7,8,9,10 loss bet, but i'm going to try my hardest to avoid it. i will give this my best shot. start with nothing......and see where i end up.:ok

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets.

How do you figure that? You've been testing this for 13 seasons? Sorry if i'm wrong, i mean...streaks in a box is random based on selection rite..? So although, let say.. they will be no 7 in row EVEN of a team, but it can have 7 in row in a box. Who knows if one is unlucky enough to put all the ODD score games in a single box.:unsure Neway,will be watching closely. Flat staking+value+accuracy=profit.;)

i have backtested each league for 13 seasons - as you say no boxes involved due to the fact that i could ignore 'simultaneous kick offs' and there was no need for boxes. with the homework that i have done on average streaks and losses in the posts prior to this i think that the boxes will NOT decrease the yield but are simply a tool suggested by a fellow member that enables the selection system to be used in real life. all i am trying to do is test a system with a different, yet controversial staking plan. i wholeheartedly agree that over infinite bets i will not be able to afford the stakes, but i believe that there will be a point where i can stop and we can look at the profit/yield summary table and say "yeah nice one, we won some good bunse from the bookie there". that is my goal. :ok

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets. ........still considering the longer term plan.....perhaps after a run of 5 losses i may "close" a box down. that is, no more bets in that box, stop chasing the loss, and concentrate on other boxes with the starting stake of 1. anyway, after 5 losses, say, the bank is not always in loss, so the yield may be low and could be built up again. anyway, :hope for today.

[muppet77]

Re: Even total goals. 27% yield. 20 bets. 3 wins from 6 today and in profit. i have also increased the stake on the midds newcastle game to 3. another selection for tomorrow - reading arsenal, available at 1.941 on betdaq. :hope

		BOX 11		stake	result	profit
14-Oct	champ	Sheffield Weds	Barnsley	1	L	-1.00
21-Oct	prem	Charlton	Watford	3	W	2.82
		BOX 12		stake	result	profit
22-Oct	prem	Middlesboro	Newcastle	3
		BOX 13		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Leicester	Crystal Palace	1	W	0.90
		BOX 14		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Preston	Hull	1	L	-1.00
22-Oct	prem	Reading	Arsenal	3
		BOX 15		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Sheffield Weds	QPR	1	L	-1.00
		BOX 16		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Southampton	Stoke	1	L	-1.00
		BOX 17		stake	result	profit
21-Oct	champ	Sunderland	Barnsley	1	W	0.90