AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE Also Melbourne were only "good" after about 6 St. Kilda players went down and out!! Hamill should never have played and got more and more ineffective as the game went on. The Clarke brothers were both out of the game early. Gehrig started like a train, until he did his ankle just on HT and was then totally useless as he couldn't move for the rest of the game. Riewoldt played right into Melbourne's hands by playing further up the ground, thus leaving them with NO forward target after HT. Basically...Melbourne got really lucky. Freo were definately out-classed last week, but there's really no such thing as a half-strength Adelaide...they have such an even list. I mean, sure, every side could do with a McLeod or Riccuto, but then guys like Bock, Van Berlo and Porplesia stepped up beautifully. Having said all that, the last meeting in Perth (Rd. 16) was a lot closer than the 29 point margin suggests. Melbourne had one more shot. Both had 46 I50's...and Melbourne smashed them in the clearances... But the thing that really worries me is Melbourne's form all year away from the MCG (even up the road at the Dome) has been pretty poor. In the other game the Bulldogs are an absolutely genuine chance to beat West Coast for the second time this season...4.00 was available early which was rediculous!!...3.60 now is still worth a shout I think. I'll be back to tell you why a bit later on!! :D

[888]

Re: AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE Interesting pick Tazad on doggies, I personally think that match is a no bet or maybe doggie with handicap. Anyway looking forward for your oppinion soon.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE Sorry about that...wasn't trying to be dramatic I promise! :D Reasons the Dogs are a realistic chance... ...tactically they have a massive advatage. It's been talked about all week, but I'll be very surprised if the Eagles change their 1-1 game plan for this game, given it has got them within a kick of a finals clean sweep last 2 years and top spot this year. The Dogs WILL push numbers back, we might even see a rebirth of the old Sydney Super Flood from Eade!! Sydney were very successful doing it last week, and it hasn't been mentioned much but we did it very well in Rd. 13 when we beat them over there earlier in the year. Given the Eagles stay 1-1 and go with them, it's effects are 2-fold...even 3-fold for this particular Dogs team. It clogs up the Eagles forward line and makes it tough for them to score (8.16-64 in Rd. 13, 12.12-84 last week...obviously well down on their season's average)... ...it leaves the opp. forward line WIDE open. Again, Sydney did it very well last week, leaving mainly Hall and O'Lochlan alone inside 50. Eade will certainly be trying to manafacture the same thing...leaving Johnson pretty much alone with an open 50 to work with. (Robbins too, but I believe his role will be to effectively tag Wirrpunda). 3rd point if that happens was obvious in our last meeting...The All-Australian, and likely best Full Back in the country then has no-one to play on!! He basically floated around the ground last meeting. Kicked a goal very late, but was largely ineffective. (Nicoski played on Johnson last time. He's out for this game, but if they go with Glass, Johnson will run him around HF and the middle) Of course, this is all subject to how West Coast react, but as I said, I suspect they will stick to a game style that has served them very well so far. The last meeting in Perth, the Dogs won by 9 points in a very even game. Eagles had 1 more shot, but a lot of them were from long range given the numbers in the Eagles' 50. 52-52 I50's. 30-29 contested possessions Dogs favour...so there was nothing in it statistically. Cox broke his collar bone, but that was late in the game (last 1/4)...Shaun Higgins dislocated his elbow very early in the game for the Dogs, and while by no means a vital player, it did leave us one player short on a hot day on a big ground. This game will be at night, so the heat won't be as much of a factor. Skipper played in that game, but now Street and Minson have had a fantastic last 4-6 weeks in the ruck for the Dogs, so I'm expecting our clearance numbers to be up. West Coast bring in 4 changes, and while they are quality players, going in with 4 underdone players is a big ask in a final. Current odds of 3.70 are WELL over I reckon...I'll be on the +23.5 for sure. I suspect that the Doggies were one match-up the Eagles didn't want to see this finals campaign. (Sydney too! :D)

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE I'm actually backing the Dockers here. The reason being that they are at home and the Dockers play Melbourne very well. If the Dockers get off to a solid start, the Demons will find it hard to come back. Freemantle match up well against the Demons. The Dockers have great players to cover Melbourne, i hope J.Farmer has a good day as does Pavlich. I also believe that the Bulldogs will go through. Will take the +23.5 as it is the safer bet. Probably will try a little on the ML.

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE Actually decided to take the Under 178.5. 1 game has gone over at Subiaco between the clubs. With that in mind i'm hoping Freo Stink and so do Melbourne.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE

Also Melbourne were only "good" after about 6 St. Kilda players went down and out!!

... Ball was another one (little imopact) on the night - hampered by injury all year. I could never see why Saints were rated genuine chance for flag. Hamill, Kosi underdone, no Hayes or Maguire. I'm not in for scoring shots much. The way I view it, points are something the play (pressure, etc) more often deserves rather than a case of which side of the stick it decides to go. Freo clearly bulldozed both Melb and Saints IMV. Obviously Crows (overload has long finished) are a top act but Freo were way too mechanical last week, which can happen in that situation after nine on end. Despite the stakes, I'm looking for them to play more natuarly tonight. WBD dominated Eagles that game also. 23pts up at 3/4-time was more the story as their was a bit of junk time stuff LQ (and some tiring, as you mentioned, Taza) I felt Dogs were never threat of losing. Eagles will have an improved line-up compared to that though and Judd first up from injury was relatively quiet. Out to 3.70 now, I do feel dogs are a bit of overs. I'd rather see it stay dry for them though. I am certain the 2.75 first qtr is overs also.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE 4.20 now I'm seeing!!!!!!!!!! I'm on +24.5...4 goals is a hell of a lot, when West Coast might only kick 10 ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE Well that was slightly embarrasing...What a terrible way to end it all. Thought the effort in the first half was fantastic, pressuring West Coast all over the ground, but; a) Turn overs!! Our skills were just pathetic!! Cant expect to win with a clanger count like that. b) Missed tackles. Time and again we'd force them into 4-5 quick, pressured handballs, only to miss the final tackle when the chance came and allowed them escape...and... c) When we did stick a tackle, apparently the Eagles are completely immune to holding the ball/incorrect disposal/throwing the ball rules!!!! One of the WORST umpiring performances I have ever seen...esp. in the first half when things were tight. A Free Kick count of 28-13 probably best sums it up. Still, to fall away late like that was no-one's fault but our own. :(

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Grand Finals 2nd Round - UPDATE

b) Missed tackles. Time and again we'd force them into 4-5 quick, pressured handballs, only to miss the final tackle when the chance came and allowed them escape...and...

I did notice! There was something like that when I needed a last minute goal for my 1st qtr bet. They had West Coast in trouble from a kick in (something like a three on one situation), only for a dog to give away an unecessary free and let them escape. I'm a supporter of the umpiring standard but, yeah they did seen to change their interpretations given the conditions and clearly seemed less than keen about awarding dogs a free in front of that crowd. I felt you lost it in the National Anthem though Taza. The rain had to have caused doubt in the Bulldogs minds, given their natural game style. Sports Acumen do an in-play 'cap which is something new and looks like it's throwing up some good opportunities. At 3/4 time I thought WCE -41.5 @ 1.85 was very good value considering Bulldogs looked to expend lots of effort for no result in the third. An Eagles avalanche did look likely.