christo85efc Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 My uncle was very successful at betting on the horses, He had a system, well not really a system, more of a method i'd say.. Whereever there was a race on flat ground, where 5 and only 5 horses were competing, always bet on the favourite. He rarely lost and made big profits! He would wait a week or longer until exactly 5 horses were in a race on the flat, didn't even bet with 4 or 6 horses, had to be 5 everytime. I am going to continue this method and see how it goes, 20pts on each horse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted August 29, 2006 Author Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Nothing for Wednesday 30th August Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. I know a lot of people say to back the outsider of 3/4. I have no stats to support but am suprised if backing the fav in such races proves profitable. In small fields you often get an untruly run race. This being every horse just gallops round til a few furlongs out and then sprints to the finish. This often means form goes out the window as its nothing more than a sprint. Saying that, good luck and hope it works for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted August 30, 2006 Author Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. I know a lot of people say to back the outsider of 3/4. I have no stats to support but am suprised if backing the fav in such races proves profitable. In small fields you often get an untruly run race. This being every horse just gallops round til a few furlongs out and then sprints to the finish. This often means form goes out the window as its nothing more than a sprint. Saying that, good luck and hope it works for you. Yeah i know, i must say i know no reason why this should work, it was just a method he had of betting and it is probably more superstician i guess, but i want to see u know, im intreagued, hmm! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ginnerjones Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Just like to say like the pic...EFC 4 eva.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Good luck with it mate. I must say, it seems that there is no logic to it, and it sounds like superstition as you say... But if it is profitable who cares!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted August 30, 2006 Author Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Just like to say like the pic...EFC 4 eva.... Good man :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted August 30, 2006 Author Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Good luck with it mate. I must say' date=' it seems that there is no logic to it, and it sounds like superstition as you say... But if it is profitable who cares!!!!![/quote'] Yeah cheers mate, may look and sound crazy, lets see ey! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Ok here's the first... Salisbury 4.50 Favourite :hope 20pts staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asificare Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Ok here's the first... Salisbury 4.50 Favourite :hope 20pts staked. tried that many systems and still in the poor house so why not give it a go i say think i will join u in £1 pt just put 60 in the bank lets hope we dont hve 3 loosers or back to the drawing board lets hope no non runners as first bet on good luck:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. tried that many systems and still in the poor house so why not give it a go i say think i will join u in £1 pt just put 60 in the bank lets hope we dont hve 3 loosers or back to the drawing board lets hope no non runners as first bet on good luck:notworthy Cheers buddy, its not really a system as has been pointed out, yeah if there are non runners then i will pull out so obviously i will be placing the bet 5 mins before the off, heres good luck to the both of us! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. I did a lot of reaserch into this about 3yrs ago but that was for races of 5 runners or less after reading an artical about backing the 2nd fav EW in these races as you are getting a 1/4 the odds a place.Up till then this was performing very well and showing good profits but that was for backing in 3 and 4 runner races as well. MY VIEW IS THAT BACKING 2ND FAVS IN THESE RACES TO WIN IS THE ANSWER.[3,4 and 5 runner races] To be honest never looked at the favs in just 5 runner races and this could also be a good idea and my only concern being the ODDS as in a lot of these races the Fav can be very short and in some instances you would have to have at least 3 winners out of 5 races to show a Small profit if the other 2 lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Well the Fav won by a neck or nose!! Was holding my breathe! But hey a wins a win! Won @ evens in the end! 1/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Thankyou for your thoughts The % Man. Some prices where there are few competitors in the race can get really slim and if they lost yeah it could take 2 races to build again. As i have said though, there is no logical reason why i am choosing this method. I am continuing what was just a great record.. Good start anyway :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Nothing for Fri 1st September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Just did a quick check for this year, flat only. 78 winners from 135 bets 36 of these were 1/1 or above. Will give you the p/loss cals at 1pt win bets later but looks interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Just did a quick check for this year, flat only. 78 winners from 135 bets 36 of these were 1/1 or above. Will give you the p/loss cals at 1pt win bets later but looks interesting. Cheers buddy, looks very interesting, look forward to seeing the stats! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Nothing for Saturday unless we get some non runners, which could easily happen with the expected rain at some meetings. I'll post tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. 14:45 is currently a 5 horse race due to a non runner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Yeah cheers buddy, 2.45 Haydock Looks a tight one but again i will take the FAV Bet will be placed 5 mins before the off as more horses could still be pulled out, and if so i will pull out the race! 20pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. 8.30 Wolverhampton 5 horse race over 1m 141y - looks pretty much like a 2 horse race but of course the FAV will be taken again.. Bet will be placed 5 mins before the off as horses can be pulled out! 20pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Zero Tolerance (FAV) won at 15/8 to make it 2/2 :nana :nana The superstician continues..!! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. FAV lost at Wolverhampton in the 8.30, 2/3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Nothing today... And now i'm away for a week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted September 3, 2006 Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Cheers buddy, looks very interesting, look forward to seeing the stats! :ok On the 135 races so far this season [up to 26th Aug] you would have been showing a 15pts profit which is a YIELD OF +11.11 %. Whether your uncle had some staking plan or left out horses that were less than a certain Sp to improve on this I do not know,but with a 56.6% win s/rate he could well have had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. On the 135 races so far this season [up to 26th Aug] you would have been showing a 15pts profit which is a YIELD OF +11.11 %. Whether your uncle had some staking plan or left out horses that were less than a certain Sp to improve on this I do not know,but with a 56.6% win s/rate he could well have had. Yeah possibly, plus i didnt know how much he staked so yeah maybe the amount varied with the sp, so if the lower the sp then maybe a higher stake! If the profit made is only 15pts over the 135 races (either he had a good run of races or as u say left horses/races out) although im sure he said he did every race. I will investigate after i return from holiday, cheers for your work on this mate.. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 3, 2006 Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Im offwork half the week so I can keep an eye on things for you if u like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Im offwork half the week so I can keep an eye on things for you if u like. Yeah that would be grand bud, cheers :ok You know the rules... 5 horse race Flat ground Bet on favourite Thanks!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maria Posted September 3, 2006 Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. maybe the amount varied with the sp' date=' so if the lower the sp then maybe a higher stake![/quote'] Please excuse my butting in as a statistician, but I have a very strong mathematical hunch that the exact opposite might work a little better here in the long run (which is all that counts, after all): the higher the SP the higher the stake. As with almost all systems, the shorter the SP the worse the value will be - and this is surely going to be even more specifically true with a system involving favourites than with any old random "system". Add to this the fact that some of the really short ones will doubtless actually be promoted by newspaper tipsters whose involvement makes the selections even shorter at SP than they would otherwise have been, and the better value selections (and therefore the ones on which you should put more money) must certainly be the slightly longer ones, I would suggest ... ;) A suitable staking plan to have a look at, if I may make a suggestion, would be one with the stakes roughly in proportion to the price ... for example, 1% of the bank per SP point (so that you stake 1% at evens but 2% at 2/1, for example) ... just a suggestion, please ignore me completely if it's unwelcome ... :\ Good luck with your interesting system ... :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: 5 horse flat races.. Please excuse my butting in as a statistician' date=' but I have a very strong mathematical hunch that the exact opposite might work a little better here in the long run (which is all that counts, after all): the [b']higher the SP the higher the stake. As with almost all systems, the shorter the SP the worse the value will be - and this is surely going to be even more specifically true with a system involving favourites than with any old random "system". Add to this the fact that some of the really short ones will doubtless actually be promoted by newspaper tipsters whose involvement makes the selections even shorter at SP than they would otherwise have been, and the better value selections (and therefore the ones on which you should put more money) must certainly be the slightly longer ones, I would suggest ... ;) A suitable staking plan to have a look at, if I may make a suggestion, would be one with the stakes roughly in proportion to the price ... for example, 1% of the bank per SP point (so that you stake 1% at evens but 2% at 2/1, for example) ... just a suggestion, please ignore me completely if it's unwelcome ... :\ Good luck with your interesting system ... :) No no no any suggestions are welcome and thankyou for your thoughts! I am away tonight for a week but when i return i will look into this more with suggestions like from yourself and the % man. Thankyou for your comments! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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