guesswest Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 When you play a bad beat jackpot table the rake is higher, which is where the jackpot comes from. So as a general rule it is (I think) a bad idea to play them. But I'm also thinking that it probably becomes a +EV proposition when the jackpot gets high enough. But I've been trying to think how exactly you'd work this out and I just can't figure it out. Can someone that's better at maths than me help me out here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation very good question but one I cant answer - hopefully someone will be able to help out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation Will give it a go later if someone like GaF doesn't beat me to it... am I right in thinking that generally, bad beat rules are quad Jacks or higher beaten with both players using both hole cards? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation I think the criteria varies from site to site - quad 8's or better is what comes to my mind as the norm. I don't think it really matters tho - it's the actual formula I can't figure out rather than being unable to do the sums. If someone can figure out the formula I think I'd be able to work out how to adjust it for different bad beat criteria. Also, while it might not quite be the reality, I think it's fair to assume here that players will always draw to a possible qualifying hand. That might not quite be the reality, eg players might fold a pocket pair only to hit runner-runner quads. But I think because these tables are generally fixed limit and the pot gives so much value on account of the jackpot, it's true in the vast majority of cases - and in any event I don't think it's possible to calculate for players laying qualifying hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation I've played over a million hands online and have never suffered a bad beat that would qualify. I have seen one qualifying hand at a table I was at so I would suggest that no matter how big the jackpot gets it will probably never represent good value. Then again maybe I'm just very lucky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation I once has four queens busted by a straight flush - and it hurt. Fortunately it was a limit cash game - so the damage wasn't terrible - and I did spend a while scouring the site for a bad beat bonus (wasn't one :cry ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation gut feel is that it's a mug bet, akin to buying a lottery ticket. Sure it's possible that the oddsd can move in your favour in the lottery if there is a triple roll over (might not be true), but the chances of hitting it are still astromonical I aviod these tables Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation gut feel is that it's a mug bet, akin to buying a lottery ticket. Sure it's possible that the oddsd can move in your favour in the lottery if there is a triple roll over (might not be true), but the chances of hitting it are still astromonical I aviod these tables I buy lottery tickets when there's +EV too - I know how to work that one out though. The thing is, I suspect the +EV might actually be very considerable at the top end of these jackpots. But it's only a suspicion - I can't figure out how to get numbers on it. And yes, even if it's +EV I wouldn't play these tables exclusively, because the variance is so massive you might never realise your expectation - but if it's +EV it's not the same thing as a mugs bet, it IS a profitable bet. So if you enjoy the excitement of playing those tables, there's nothing unsensible about playing them if/when they're +EV. I've often wondered the same thing about large progressive jackpots on slot machines - but I know that one can't be calculated, because manufacturers don't release their probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mullet1984 Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation they have the hand number of the last time the jackpot was hit on prima site, perhaps count number of hands chances of it happening etc, i suspect it shud have laready hit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mullet1984 Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation Any one know who won it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6ooner Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation What actually defines a Bad Beat for the sake of claiming a prize, I was under the impression it was a full house being beaten by quads or higher? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatBoyFat Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation On Party I think Quad 8's is the minimum requirement for a bad beat and both hole cards need to be used by the hand winner and the person getting the bad beat. Personally I have never suffered a bad beat of this magnitude in over 100k hands. My maths may be wrong here but stick with me.... On party the minimum level for the BBJ is $2/$4. If playing full ring and I win say 10% of pots and pay 50c into the BBJ for each of those it is costing me 1.2BB/100 from my win rate. At 6max it is even worse as I expect to win around 16% of pots. Over 100k hands I would have put in approx. 1,200BB ($4,800) and not hit the Jackpot. I'd sooner have the $4,800 as at $2/$4 that extra 1.2BB/100 may turn me from a winning to a breakeven/losing player. Plus, Party may make sick one outers on you like the one below and that would put you tilt for the rest of your life (the fella was on for a $39k payout other than for the one outer on the river) :- Preflop: Heroine is BB with 9, 9. 2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, Heroine checks. Flop: (6 SB) 9, T, 9 (6 players) SB checks, Heroine bets, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB calls. Turn: (4.50 BB) J (3 players) SB checks, Heroine bets, Button raises, SB folds, Heroine 3-bets, Button calls. River: (10.50 BB) Q (2 players) Heroine bets, Button raises, Heroine 3-bets, Button caps, Heroine calls. Final Pot: 18.50 BB Results in white below: Heroine has 9d 9h (four of a kind, nines). Button has 7c 8c (straight flush, queen high). Outcome: Button wins 18.50 BB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mullet1984 Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Bad Beat Jackpots And Expectation It was won on Prima $140k Anyone know anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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