(Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System

[rippyuk]

After reading through some of the previous lay system threads, I'm currently following Danny Cash's racing lays - from which so far I'm in profit. What Danny's "Profitable Lay System" thread has done is opened my eyes to the kind of strike rate you need for a successful & profitable system. This is the first system I've ever 'devised', and in tribute to DC I've bootlegged his title for myself. ;) In a nutshell, the system is simplicity itself.. Lay the underdog. Sounds obvious, I guess, but here are the stats. In the 2005/6 English Premier League season, out of 380 matches played: - 226 were won by the favourite - 78 were won by the underdog - 76 ended in a draw Laying the underdog would've resulted in 302 winning lays, and 78 losing lays. This is a strike rate of 79.47%. I ran a trial on the 2005/6 season stats, with odds from BetExplorer (http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/england/english-premier-2005-2006/). I added 10% to the prices to give a rough lay price, and used two different staking plans. The results: FIXED PROFIT STAKING - 2pts profit per lay Starting Bank - 100pts Total Staked - 760pts Final Bank - 250.45pts Profit/Loss - +150.45pts Lowest the bank fell to was around 72pts. FIXED LIABILITY STAKING - 20pts liability per lay Starting Bank - 200pts Final Bank - 246.7pts Profit/Loss - +46.7pts The bank dropped as low as 14pts using this staking plan. On the back of these results I want to give it a proper trial this season, using fixed profit staking of 2pts per lay, and will record it here. As this is my first attempt, I'm only using miniscule stakes myself, if you want to follow along feel free - but please be aware I've only used stats for last season. We could be looking at a much lower strike rate than 79%. This thread could end in swift bankroll burnout! You have been warned. I'll begin blindly laying every underdog, but as the season goes on I might get selective with the matches. The first selections will be posted soon. In the meantime, if anyone has any input, fire away. Please bear in mind I generally only gamble for my enjoyment & am new to taking it seriously, so be gentle.. lately I've been keeping records, as I might as well make my pastime profitable! Hope I've not posted a load of old tripe.. rippyuk

[AJ]

Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System sounds interesting, good luck with it